Would you keep a $40 Sizemore in a 12 team AL with about 20% inflation in most years?My raw uninflated bid limit for Sizemore currently sits at $39, so to me keeping him at $40 in a league with 20% inflation is a virtual no-brainer.
I'm probably somewhat bullish on Sizemore, but he went for $37 in LABR and $36 in Tout Wars. If $36 is your pre-inflation ceiling then $43 would be your 20% inflation bid limit.
My bid's higher because I believe that Sizemore's going to contribute in three categories (in 4x4) this year, that his batting average won't kill you even if it's a little below average, and he earned $38 in 2008.
I would imagine that if keeping Sizemore at $40 is a question, it's because his 2005-2007 earnings were $30, $29, $31. But I don't think that the power or the speed is going away this year, and even if $30 is his floor, I'd gamble that it isn't. If you're wrong, you're still only taking a $4 loss with inflation and buying $30 worth of stats - something only 16 American League hitters did last year.
3 comments:
I think it's possible that everything could go up for Sizemore this year. He led the Tribe in RBI from the lead off spot last year, who does that? If Hafner doesn't start to improve isn't it possible that Wedge should consider moving Sizemore to the number three spot in the order?
In the end, I just couldn't freeze a $40 hitter. Our actual inflation rate was closer to 15% and it was much higher on the pitching side (cheap closers and some young pitching that paid off).
Generally, I prefer to avoid concentration of risk -- two $20 players are better than a $40 player and a $1 player.
The past couple of years, players named in the first trip around the table actually tend to be under their inflation price. Later, the guys in my league chase high upside young guys to greatly inflated prices -- thereby ending much hope of turning a profit there.
For example, I could have kept Chris Davis at $31 and suspect that someone will chase him to $30.
P.S. You can call me Rodger
Post-draft update: I bought Sizemore back for the same $40. You convinced me that he was likely to produce at least $30 worth of statistics, worth a few bucks more in an inflated market.
I still managed to distribute risk, as my next highest winning bid was $25 for Felix Hernandez. I obtained 6 other players for $11 to $23 -- Butler, B. Francisco, Iwamura, Jeter, Teahen and Delmon Young. Those 6 cost $99, or $16.50 each.
As predicted Chris Davis went for $31 (my possible keeper price). I was the runnerup bidder.
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