Monday, April 13, 2009

N.L. FAAB Log: April 13, 2009

Kyle McClellan $7. Other bids $3, $3, $2, $1, $1.
I'm not a big fan of McClellan, but this is a case where he might be the back-up to Jason Motte simply by default. Brad Thompson's been getting beaten up in the early going and Josh Kinney hasn't been very good either. That leaves McClellan, Ryan Franklin, and Dennys Reyes. Reyes is a situational reliever, so I suspect that if the Cards do make a change it'll be McClellan or Franklin. My money right now would be on McClellan, but this type of bid is appropriate - don't blow the bank yet because there are several options in St. Louis - including Chris Perez coming back at some point and claiming the job.

Joe Thurston $5. Other bids $2, $1.
Thurston is a 29-year-old career minor league vet whose star as a prospect last shone in 2003 for the L.A. Dodgers. He's bounced around since then, and is now playing third and second for the Cardinals as Tony LaRussa keeps playing the hot hand. You can't be too disappointed with a freebie, but Thurston has no steals, is hacking at everything that's been thrown up there so far, and is probably going to be exposed sooner rather than later. Know your eligibility rules as well; in leagues with five-game requirements, Thurston is still OF only from last season.

Jason Marquis $3.
Marquis' start this week is away from Coors, but I still wouldn't recommend him even if you're desperate. He's at Wrigley, where his ERA the last three years is about equal to his overall ERA. He walks too many batters and doesn't strike out enough of them for my tastes. He succeeded against the Phillies in his first start by getting lefties out, something he doesn't have a track record with either. For your sanity and your stomach, please avoid.

Eric Stults $2.
What I said about Stults last year still applies. He's a good match-up option - particularly when he's pitching at home - but isn't a guy you want to hang on to long term due to his OK stuff. I did notice looking back at his career numbers that he has a strong K/IP in a limited sample size, so maybe he'll be OK for his next couple of starts before Hideki Kuroda comes back. He's still someone I can't heartily recommend, so you're using him at your own risk.

Dennys Reyes $2. Other bids $1, $1.
I mentioned Reyes in passing above under McClellan, but it's worth saying again that Reyes is not a likely candidate to get the bulk of saves in this pen if LaRussa decides he's done with Motte. From 2006-2008, Reyes had a 531 OPS against lefties and a 781 against righties. That wouldn't make him the worst lefty closer in recent memory; both George Sherrill and C.J. Wilson entered 2008 with similarly radical or worse lefty-righty splits. So it's possible Reyes closes for the Cards. But it's also highly improbable.

Sean Green $1.
He came over to the Mets in the huge 12-player deal that netted them J.J. Putz. His skill is as a righty specialist, but his numbers against righthanders aren't special enough that this will parlay itself into any great value for Green on the Mets. The problem with this types of guys is that managers aren't as cognizant of the favorable split as they are with LHPs and Green will face too many lefthanders over the course of the season. I'd leave him in the free agent pool.

Brian Barden $1.
A few years ago, Barden was one of those prospects in his mid-20s who everyone thought should get a chance (Look at the power! He can play 2B! His interiors are awesome!). Now he's a 28-year old who probably slots in as a back-up in St. Louis. He could get an opportunity if Thurston eventually flops (see above) and David Freese continues to struggle, but Barden's a longshot at the moment to contribute.

Tony Clark $1.
Clark popped a couple of HRs in the first week, but he still looks like a pinch hitter and one of the last men off of the bench for the Diamondbacks.

Darnell McDonald $1.
McDonald was a former first-round draft pick for the Baltimore Orioles...way back in 1997. His speed/power potential was tantalizing to A.L. only owners, but McDonald's tools never translated into skills, and his bounced around the minors for the last 11 years. He cracked the Reds roster this year and looks like he's going to be playing on the right-handed hitting side of a platoon, at least for a little while. He's a longshot to contribute very much, but if he does play 2-3 times a week he should be owned in N.L.-only leagues.

Koyie Hill $1.
I'm not sure when this bid was actually put in, but the latest on Geovany Soto is that he might be back on Wednesday. Even if Soto does go on the DL, Hill is a poor batting average play with no power. You're better off with a dead spot.

Brendan Ryan $1.
Ryan got two starts this past week, but he looks more like a back-up on this Cardinals team than a guy who will get any serious kind of playing time barring injury. He's a low level speed option in very deep leagues who helps out because he's eligible at both MI positions, but nothing more.

Duaner Sanchez $1.
I assumed that the Padres were going to bury reclamation project Sanchez in the back of their bullpen, but he's pitched twice in the 8th so far in games where the Padres have had the lead. That doesn't necessarily mean that he's next in line if Heath Bell gets hurt, but Sanchez is probably worth owning in deep leagues as a possible vulture candidate.

Livan Hernandez $1.
Hernandez had a decent outing against the Marlins last week, but can't be recommended due to a fastball that hovers in the low 80s most games. He's got enough guile where he might survive a few trips around the rotation, but it could also get really ugly really fast.

Everth Cabrera $1.
Despite the fact that Luis Hernandez stinks on ice, the Padres are still likely to use Cabrera as a sparingly used back-up, at least from the get go. The Rule V pick played at A-ball last year and would probably be overmatched as a starter. He did show blazing speed in the minors last year with 73 SB, so is worth owning in very deep leagues if you need to gamble on the swipes.

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