Monday, April 13, 2009

A.L. FAAB Log: April 13, 2009

Jason Frasor $6. Other bids $3, $2, $2.
Once upon a time, there would have been more of a pissing contest for a reliever like Frasor: a pitcher who picked up a save in a shaky bullpen where the closer seems to be pitching hurt. There's too much information out there nowadays, though, including Cito Gaston's vote of confidence for B.J. Ryan and then Scott Downs as the set-up, the fact that Ryan isn't that far off from his velocity from last year, and the large MLB contract that would make it prohibitive for the Jays to simply strip the role from Ryan. That doesn't mean that Frasor doesn't have value. He's a good middle reliever with decent K numbers, whose only whammy last year was a high BB/IP rate, which contributed to a bad WHIP. If Frasor's role is expanded to a larger middle relief role, he could see expanded value - even in 5x5. Just don't count him for more than 3-5 saves. Unless, of course, the situation in Toronto changes again this week.

Trevor Crowe $5.
At one time, it looked like Crowe would have a shot at unseating either Ben Francisco or Franklin Gutierrez in the Indians OF, as he was the #64 prospect in Baseball America's Top 100 and a #3 organizational prospect for the Indians in 2007. But a bad year that year knocked him deep down the depth chart and an injury-marred 2008 knocked him down a little more. At 25, he's not that old but his future might be as a 4th OF and not as a starter. His power never really developed. His speed is intriguing, and makes him a short-term option in A.L.-only leagues while David Dellucci is on the shelf.

Matt Tuiasosopo $5.
In deep leagues, future plays can take place as early as April. Tuiasosopo is the likeliest candidate to be optioned this week when Ichiro Suzuki returns, so I imagine this bid has an eye on next year, when Adrian Beltre will no longer be a Mariner and Tuiasosopo will get a long look at 3B if the M's don't bring in any external options. He looked extremely overmatched in his cup of coffee late last year, but Tuiasosopo is very young and could bounce back as a viable future starter with a strong year at AAA. Avoid him if you're in a non-carryover league.

Willie Bloomquist $3.
He's a straight steals play with Jose Guillen hitting the DL late last week and a sliver of playing time opening up for Bloomquist while Guillen's out. It seems like Alberto Callaspo will benefit the most from Guillen's absence, but I still expect Bloomquist to play 3-4 times a week for the next two weeks. He can't hit but he can run, so only take him if you're desperate for the steals and can cope with a possible BA swoon.

Dustin Moseley $2.
Fangraphs summed up Moseley very well in this piece back from March. He has pretty pedestrian stuff and is one of many Quad-A type pitchers who floats around baseball for a few years, typically in the minors. As Fangraphs points out, his BABIP was unkind last year, but regression to the mean will probably produce an ERA in the high 4s/low 5s. Even with the Angels' offense backing Moseley up, he's a poor risk.

Damaso Marte $1. Other bid $1.
Given Marte's strong peripherals throughout his career, you'd expect better earnings the last five years. But the Patton scan doesn't lie. Going backward from 2008: $10, $8, $2, $2, $15. Those numbers are good, and mean that you can define Marte as a fairly "safe" pitcher, but he's not an earnings behemoth like I simply assumed based on his reputation. Maybe this year will be better given that he's a Yankee and could have more vulture opportunities, but as we all know you can't necessarily count on wins just because a pitcher is on a good team.

Michael Wuertz $1. Other bid $1.
Wuertz is a back-of-the-pen option who could still provide value in 4x4 thanks to his good rate stats. He relies heavily on his slider, throwing it over 60% of the time last year. He strikes me as a pitcher who might get hit a little harder in the A.L. but will be a strong option his first go-round through the league. At the moment, he's probably not an option for saves, though the A's are a great place to go trolling for middle relievers since their organization isn't afraid to put "unproven" pitchers in the closer role.

Zach Miner $1.
Unlike with Moseley, Fangraphs is high on Miner, but this is a case where I don't agree. Like them, I like groundball pitchers, but the 1.30 G/F rate Miner put up last year doesn't make up for the poor K/IP and K/BB rates. He could be serviceable at the back of the Tigers rotation, but I think he's also going to put up some bad outings along the way. He's a better play in leagues where you can reserve active MLB pitchers and play match-ups.

Robb Quinlan $1.
Quinlan's presence here is testimony to how thin deep one-league leagues are at the beginning of the year on the hitting side. I don't anticipate Quinlan doing anything besides pinch hitting and driving in the occasional run, which makes him next to worthless even in deep leagues. Yet he still might not be the worst option out there. You should pass though unless you're incredibly desperate.

Russ Springer $1.
Springer's been an incredibly good pitcher the last two years for St. Louis, and now he moves to Oakland - which is even more of a hitters' park. Given his incredibly radical G/F ratios, I think it's possible that the HR/IP regresses, particularly on the road. But the A's have done well squeezing the most value out of pitchers like this in the twilight of their careers, and I expect they'll do the same with Springer. He's a decent middle relief option for 4x4.

Jesse Crain $1.
Crain is probably the Twins back-up option to Joe Nathan if he needs a rest or if he gets hurt. Crain puts up decent enough K/IP numbers though his WHIP has been high since he returned from shoulder surgery late in 2007. If his control sharpens this year, Crain could see a pretty solid spike in value.

Ron Mahay $1.
Solid middle relief option for the Royals who probably has zero chance at saves with Kyle Farnsworth and Juan Cruz next in line if something happened to Joakim Soria. Mahay had a horrible second half last year, but was banged up. He's been a solid middle reliever since 2006 and if he can stay healthy he's probably good for another 50 or so decent innings this year.

2 comments:

Gypsy Soul said...

So well done, thanks a lot, I see why it is so popular, saves us a lot of work also.

Anonymous said...

Is David Aardsma owned in your league? Im thinking of throwing a bid his way as he's looked sharp so far. I get that Morrow is pretty ingrained in that role - but if the M's keep playing well, it has to get tempting at some point to move Morrow into the rotation (especially if Silva keeps pitching the way he has) Thoughts?