...I think I have a good freeze list: (Mike) Napoli 7, (Jacoby) Ellsbury 7, (Melvin) Mora 6, (Francisco) Liriano 10, (Joakim) Soria 20, (Justin) Masterson 2, (Kevin) Slowey 7 and sad sack (Troy) Percival 14 (10 team AL, with only (Kerry) Wood, (Brian) Fuentes and (Frank) Francisco available as closers - is my Percival defense). (Grady) Sizemore is really (well (Ian) Kinsler but I don't think he will approach inflation par) the open question. His software price, using my league formulas, is 30, that won't get him - inflation price is 42 - I think his max (not inflated) are 40. So, (it) is (a) question of how much of a loss (but getting, say 36 of stats) is acceptable, how much does it undo the good freeze list and how much does it then keep me from, say, paying par for (Kevin) Youkilis, (Adrian) Beltre, (Jason) Bay, (Nelson) Cruz, (John) Danks?NSH has crammed a lot of concepts into one question, so I'll try to break this down into a few components.
First, how good is NSH's freeze list? Without making the adjustment for a 10-team league, I have NSH's freezes projected to earn $134. They cost a combined total of $73, so that's a $61 profit. Indeed, that does sound pretty good.
However, NSH's calculation on Grady Sizemore tells me that inflation in his league is running at 40%. If NSH buys his entire team at inflation par, he will end up with a $270 team ($187 auction dollars would bring back $134). That's probably going to be good for anywhere between fourth and sixth place.
If it sounds like I'm underestimating NSH's team, keep in mind that leagues that have high inflation rates like this have them because there are usually a lot of incredibly undervalued freezes. I'm guessing that there is a team or two in NSH's league that has its own version of Ellsbury times two - or perhaps even three. So while NSH's team is very good, I suspect it's not going to be good enough if he simply keeps up with inflation par.
The second half of NSH's question is concerned with whether or not he should chase Sizemore to close to his inflation par value or if he should wait for the second tier of players.
I've talked about leagues with high inflation before and the impact it has on bidding strategies. I would advise pushing Sizemore to three or four dollars under his full inflation price and letting him go. The combined factors of NSH's high inflation and a 10-team league means that there will be a significant amount of variance in the middle of the auction, which will lead to some deeper bargains at that point in the day.
One thing I'd quibble with is NSH's raw price on Sizemore. Even for a 10-team league, $30 seems too low. Because the bottom of the barrel players in smaller leagues are a little better than they are in larger 12-team leagues, I'd leave Sizemore's price close to what his 12-team league price is and shave more dollars off of the players in the middle. Even if you don't like Sizemore that much, I wouldn't have a raw price on him under $36.
4 comments:
In my league (12-team, NL-only, $260, 4x4), there's a weird confluence of a couple teams already giving up on this season due to pathetic freeze lists, a new owner coming in at the last minute and not being able to attend the draft, and just some CRAZY freezes. As a result, there won't be a lot of top talent available at the draft (only 7 of the top 25 hitters and five of the top 25 pitchers). However, there also won't be insane inflation (just under 30%). My freeze list is strong, with $63 frozen for 174 in talent, which puts me second heading into the draft. What I don't have is a lot of top tier hitting talent. Unfortunately, I think teams who haven't done their homework will freak out early, and prices for the best players will go through the roof. For example, I have Wright at $35 pre-inflation, $44 with inflation, but it wouldn't surprise me if he goes $50-$55. How should I adjust?
Thanks for the great site.
You mention that auctioning out at inflation-par, he'd come out with a $270 team, good for fourth - sixth place.
What's sort of value ought we be aiming for coming out of the auction? If I calculate that auctioning at inflation-par I will have a $313 team - am I playing for it this year? Or should I look to build for next year?
On a related note, in deciding whether to protect players, what sort of profit margin justifies a keep? Is it proper strategy to keep any player whose keeper price is below their expected value? This may be a no-brainer, but I want to confirm.
Finally (sorry - maybe one of these questions will get answered!), I have a roto-riddle: I currently own a $11 BJ Upton in the b year of his contract. I could keep him at 11c, extend him to 16a2, or to 21a3.
If I suspect he will earn 30, 30, 30 over the next 3 years respectively, then keeping him for all 3 years costs me 5 marginal dollars for each year, for a total of 15 marginal dollars. The benefit is that I own a 21 dollar in 2 years, who earns 30 dollars, for a 9 dollar profit. But, haven't I spent 15 marginal dollars to secure that 9 dollar 2011 profit.
If I extend him into next year, that costs me 5 marginal dollars this year, and 5 marginal dollars next year. In return I get a 30 dollar Upton next year paid at 16 dollars, turning a 14 dollar profit. Subtracting the 10 marginal dollars over two years, thats a net gain of four dollars.
If I dont extend him at all, I get a 30 dollar Upton this year at the cost of 11 dollars. No marginal extension dollars -> so that's a 19 dollar profit.
Therefore, is the optimal play to not extend him?
I realize that the opportunity cost of those $5 marginal dollars is less than $5, because of auction inflation - but leaving that aside, is my analysis correct?
For the record, I extended him to a 16a2 to be safe.
Anonymous,
Let me try to chip in on some of your questions.
1. $260 in value is average, so $313 should be top three at least, and maybe #1 in a tight league.
2. Depends. If you have an otherwise strong freeze list, you can keep a few studs at or near par, or even a couple dollars above (if inflation looks bad). Keeping $4 guys at $1 probably isn't wise, because it can tie up your slots and eliminate draft flexibility.
3. I discount the savings 50% each year (to reflect the time value of money), so letting him play out his option give you $19 in savings for just this year. Signing him at $16 for two years gives you $14 in savings this year, but only $7 next year, for a total of $21, which is $2 more than letting him play out his option. So signing him to a 2-year deal is better than letting him play out the option. Signing him at $21 for three years gives you $9+$4.50+$2.25, or only $15.75, so you shouldn't give him a three-year deal.
The ultimate effect of my policy is, it takes a stud at a low price (for example, the first few years of Albert Pujols, if he went for $3 like he did in my league) for me to sign a player past two years.
Mike, thanks. As to raw bid for Sizemore, is simply the software (Patton$) with this league's denominators (and even with std. denoms his price is $28). Unless the software accounting for 10 teams is cheating players $.
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