in trying to gain players for $2 under the inflation value, what happens then if you get a star player for $2 under and pay $40 for him, is this the equivalent of getting two $20 players each for $1 under? Would it then be better to attempt to get two $20 players each at $2 under or perhaps four $10 players each at $2 under? I am a little perplexed in how this plays out based on the value of the player.The correct answer is that you should take any kind of undervalued players you can get.
Let's take a look at my non-expert American League auction last year. This was a league with about 20% inflation and 165 players to buy (111 players were kept).
Billy Almon Brown Graduate 2008 Auction
| Round | Salary |
Value
| Bar. |
Price per Bargain
|
| 1 | $353 | $331 | 0 | N/A |
| 2 | $314 | $307 | 1 | $28 |
| 3 | $223 | $214 | 2 | $21, $5 |
| 4 | $183 | $177 | 4 | $11, $13, $24, $3 |
| 5 | $163 | $170 | 3 | $31, $7, $1 |
| 6 | $147 | $153 | 6 | $10, $12, $11, $7, $10, $4 |
| 7 | $133 | $147 | 7 | $10, $13, $12, $10, $3, $3, $9 |
| 8 | $106 | $85 | 1 | $3 |
| 9 | $85 | $76 | 2 | $7, $1 |
| 10 | $44 | $47 | 1 | $1 |
| 11 | $42 | $40 | 1 | $1 |
| 12 | $18 | $46 | 5 | $2, $1, $1, $1, $1 |
| 13* | $22 | $39 | 3 | $1, $1, $1 |
This is a look at the round-by-round summary of my league's auction in 2008, broken out by the projected inflation value, the actual prices those players went for, the number of players who went for $2 or more under their bid limits, and the prices of those "cheap" players.
Thirty-six players who went for $2 or more under inflation par value sounds wonderful. You'd think that you could carry out Gypsy Soul's idea of waiting patiently for players who were seriously undervalued.
The problem comes when you look at the dollar amounts in the right hand column. Only four players who were projected to turn $2 (inflation) profits went for more than $13. That's not bad when you consider that those four players went for a combined $104. However, if you got cute and decided to pass on even one of these players, you would have been scrambling at the end of your auction to fill out your roster by overpaying...which would have negated your profits somewhat if not entirely.
Another problem is that three of the four $20+ bargains were shortstops. If you had the ability to fill out your roster with a SS, a MI, and a DH that would have been great. Otherwise, you would have also been scrambling at the end to make things work.
At the risk of repeating myself, take any kind of bargain you can get in your auction. If you wait around for players who are going to come to you at a certain amount under par, you're either going to wind up with money on the table or overspending at the end of your auction.
4 comments:
"If you wait around for players who are going to come to you at a certain amount under par, you're either going to wind up with money on the table or overspending at the end of your auction."
This is so true. If you weren't planning on buying that player you have valued at $32, who with inflation is $40 (25% hitting inflation), but his bidding stops at $35, take the shot at $36. You're saving $4 versus par and you are buying quality stats. There aren't a lot of players worth a baseline of $32.
I've seen a lot of drafts where people don't spend their inflation dollars early and on the best players- they stick to their non-inflation prices- probably b/c they are using magazine prices. When it gets down to the last 3 everyday outfielders they realize they have a ton of extra money and three $12 players wind up going for $20 each and paying 67% inflation just to burn the dollars.
That's why I skew my inflation dollars toward the top players. I don't distribute it linearly. I delete any inflationary dollars that have been attributed to players $10 and under and redistribute it to players over $25. If I add $1 to everyone and there still is money left it goes to those over $30 and then when that's done over $35 and $40 until it's all gone. If there is a huge amount of inflation I might start at $20.
I have to say that this site (with the articles and the thoughtful comments) got me through my NL-only auction. With my sorry keepers, I figured I'd do no better than ninth (a rebuilding year), but now I feel like this is a potential money-finisher.
I used the advice to go after mid-tier players and found that I was able to grab players at virtually no inflation cost while people were paying incredible amounts for top-tier players and then had to overpay in the endgame.
I did, however, go with an all-backup catching group and I'm not too interested in saves (we also count holds). Still, I need to figure out where to go from here.
Any advice?
My team:
C--Miguel Montero
C--Chris Coste
1B--Prince Fielder
2B--Freddy Sanchez
3B--Casey Blake
SS--Miguel Tejada
OF--Corey Hart
OF--Alfonso Soriano
OF--Conor Jackson
OF--Garrett Anderson
CI--Adam LaRoche
MI--Luis Rodriguez
UT--Scott Hairston
SP--Derek Lowe
SP--Ted Lilly
SP--Josh Johnson
SP--Paul Maholm
SP--Manny Parra
CL--Matt Lindstrom
MR--Peter Moylan
MR--Geoff Geary
MR--Cory Wade
MR--Sergio Romo
BN--Greg Dobbs
BN--Edgar Gonzalez
BN--Gregor Blanco
BN--Alex Cora
BN--Jeremy Affeldt
BN--Jose Ceda
BN--Gaby Sanchez
Without knowing the other teams in the league, its almost impossible to tell you what to do or where to go. You are light on speed for sure, despite having Hart and Soriano. Your starters have upside.
With Lindstrom, depending on what your league looks like, you are either going to want to get in or get out of the saves game.
Eugene, in the method you use for redistributing inflation dollars which you note in your comment here, what happens to the middle priced player's values ie from $11 to $24? Do you mean you dont add anything for inflation for their prices as well as for those $10 and under? Thanks very much. It seems like a sound method though.
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