Steals are frequently tied to players who have other value as well- Ichiro, Beltran, etc. If you disregard them to ditch steals, you will be paying more for players who either aren't as well rounded or paying for them for their other value and not complimenting their steals- thus buying the whole player and only using a portion.I've addressed category dumping in many other posts, but perhaps have never looked at the other side of this equation - what happens to the categories you're contending in when you decide to dump a category?
Is Eugene's premise correct? More importantly, was it correct last year?
Top 10 A.L. Home Runs 2008
Rank | Top 10 HR | AB | HR | RBI | SB | BA | $HR | $ | Sal | AP | SW | 2007 | |
1 | Miguel Cabrera | 616 | 37 | 127 | 1 | .292 | 14 | 33 | 42 | 33 | 36 | 34 | |
2 | Carlos Quentin | 480 | 36 | 100 | 7 | .288 | 14 | 31 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 2 | |
3 | Alex Rodriguez | 510 | 35 | 103 | 18 | .302 | 13 | 38 | 47 | 42 | 43 | 53 | |
4 | Jermaine Dye | 590 | 34 | 96 | 3 | .292 | 13 | 29 | 20 | 18 | 17 | 16 | |
5 | Jim Thome | 503 | 34 | 90 | 1 | .245 | 13 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 22 | 23 | |
6 | Grady Sizemore | 634 | 33 | 90 | 38 | .268 | 13 | 40 | 35 | 32 | 29 | 31 | |
7 | Jack Cust | 481 | 33 | 77 | 0 | .231 | 13 | 16 | 12 | 15 | 10 | 16 | |
8 | Aubrey Huff | 598 | 32 | 108 | 4 | .304 | 12 | 32 | 13 | 14 | 10 | 14 | |
9 | Jason Giambi | 458 | 32 | 96 | 2 | .247 | 12 | 21 | 4 | 12 | 6 | 7 | |
10 | Josh Hamilton | 624 | 32 | 130 | 9 | .304 | 12 | 38 | 20 | 25 | 14 | 15 | |
average | 549 | 34 | 102 | 8 | .279 | 13 | 30 | 22 | 21 | 19 | 21 |
I ran this chart earlier this winter.
If you were dumping steals last year in an A.L.-only league, you would have waved bye-bye to A-Rod and Sizemore. But the rest of these guys certainly wouldn't have contributed anything in steals - or at least not enough to warrant adding a significant amount to their bids.
Even in the N.L. - where we would expect more HR/SB tandem players, you also could have made a similar non-SB play.
Top 10 N.L. Home Runs 2008
Rank | Top 10 HR | AB | HR | RBI | SB | BA | $HR | $ | Sal | AP | SW | 2007 | |
1 | Ryan Howard | 610 | 48 | 146 | 1 | .251 | 17 | 30 | 37 | 31 | 33 | 32 | |
2 | Adam Dunn | 511 | 40 | 100 | 2 | .236 | 14 | 21 | 26 | 24 | 26 | 28 | |
3 | Carlos Delgado | 598 | 38 | 115 | 1 | .271 | 13 | 27 | 18 | 14 | 15 | 17 | |
4 | Ryan Braun | 611 | 37 | 106 | 14 | .285 | 13 | 33 | 37 | 29 | 37 | 36 | |
5 | Ryan Ludwick | 538 | 37 | 113 | 4 | .299 | 13 | 32 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 12 | |
6 | Albert Pujols | 524 | 37 | 116 | 7 | .357 | 13 | 43 | 35 | 33 | 36 | 33 | |
7 | Adrian Gonzalez | 616 | 36 | 119 | 0 | .279 | 13 | 28 | 26 | 25 | 18 | 23 | |
8 | Prince Fielder | 588 | 34 | 102 | 3 | .276 | 12 | 26 | 38 | 30 | 32 | 35 | |
9 | Pat Burrell | 536 | 33 | 86 | 0 | .250 | 12 | 18 | 18 | 15 | 14 | 19 | |
10 | Hanley Ramirez | 589 | 33 | 67 | 35 | .301 | 12 | 39 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 51 | |
11 | Chase Utley | 607 | 33 | 104 | 14 | .292 | 12 | 33 | 38 | 33 | 36 | 32 | |
12 | David Wright | 626 | 33 | 124 | 15 | .302 | 12 | 38 | 43 | 38 | 39 | 46 | |
average | 580 | 37 | 108 | 8 | .283 | 13 | 31 | 30 | 29 | 28 | 30 |
Ramirez, Utley and Wright all would have been non-starters. But the rest of these guys certainly would have fit a non-SB strategy nicely.
Of course you're going to lose out on some stats from guys who are tied into SB. But there are enough guys out there who hit for power and don't run that it should work.
My challenge usually has more to do with how I should budget if I'm dumping a category. It's not enough to turn the dial to zero on SB and pump up the players without SB in a linear fashion. You're probably competing with a roomful of owners who will be budgeting across all categories and need to adjust accordingly. Pushing the bid to $25 on Delgado last year wouldn't have made sense in a non-SB strategy. Going to $21 might have, depending on your freeze list and your other needs.
2 comments:
A minor quibble. If you went for those guys- excluding Quentin and Huff and Ludwick on the respective lists b/c they weren't predictable, you would likely also be sacrificing BAvg. Dumping steals and going middle of the road in BAvg at best isn't going to do much good on offense.
Thome, Cust, and Giambi all hurt BAvg quite a bit. Howard, Dunn, and Burrell do that to you on the other side as well. That's 1/3 of the list. It's hard to buy the three category studs on the list and still compete in pitching.
However, dumping saves, b/c they are more concentrated and not necessarily correlated with any other skill (like ERA/Ratio), can work out a little better.
Well, 5 of the hitters in the NL are at least average neutral and hit over 30 HR. So picking out Howard, Dunn and Burrell really isn't fair. We can keep going as well...Holliday (the former national leaguer), Carlos Lee, Manny Ramirez are top tier OF without ties to HR that would significant help your average. There are lower tier options as well...you really only need one or two average+ guys to support a top 4 finish in average. Of course, this is also strategy dependent as well...depending on what you want to do in pitching, it may not work out.
Ultimately, saves and steals are the two target categories...I am much more apt to dump those saves.
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