Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Dumping Categories/Losing Other Stats

Eugene makes an interesting point about dumping categories:
Steals are frequently tied to players who have other value as well- Ichiro, Beltran, etc. If you disregard them to ditch steals, you will be paying more for players who either aren't as well rounded or paying for them for their other value and not complimenting their steals- thus buying the whole player and only using a portion.
I've addressed category dumping in many other posts, but perhaps have never looked at the other side of this equation - what happens to the categories you're contending in when you decide to dump a category?

Is Eugene's premise correct? More importantly, was it correct last year?


Top 10 A.L. Home Runs 2008
RankTop 10 HR
AB
HR
RBI
SB
BA
$HR
$
Sal
AP
SW
2007

1Miguel Cabrera
616
371271.292143342333634
2
Carlos Quentin
480
361007.28814
316572
3
Alex Rodriguez
510
3510318.302133847424353
4
Jermaine Dye
590
34963.292132920181716
5
Jim Thome
503
34901.245132019182223
6
Grady Sizemore
634339038.268134035
32
29
31
7
Jack Cust
481
33770.231131612151016
8
Aubrey Huff
598321084.304123213141014
9
Jason Giambi
45832962.247122141267
10
Josh Hamilton
624321309.304123820251415

average
549341028.279133022211921

I ran this chart earlier this winter.

If you were dumping steals last year in an A.L.-only league, you would have waved bye-bye to A-Rod and Sizemore. But the rest of these guys certainly wouldn't have contributed anything in steals - or at least not enough to warrant adding a significant amount to their bids.

Even in the N.L. - where we would expect more HR/SB tandem players, you also could have made a similar non-SB play.

Top 10 N.L. Home Runs 2008
RankTop 10 HR
AB
HR
RBI
SB
BA
$HR
$
Sal
AP
SW
2007

1Ryan Howard
610
481461.251173037313332
2
Adam Dunn
511
401002.23614
2126242628
3
Carlos Delgado
598
381151.271132718141517
4
Ryan Braun
611
3710614.285133337293736
5
Ryan Ludwick
538
371134.299133236312
6
Albert Pujols
524371167.357134335
33
36
33
7
Adrian Gonzalez
616
361190.279132826251823
8
Prince Fielder
588341023.276122638303235
9
Pat Burrell
53633860.250121818151419
10
Hanley Ramirez
589336735.301123941414151
11
Chase Utley
6073310414.292123338333632
12
David Wright
6263312415.302123843383946

average
580371088.283133130292830

Ramirez, Utley and Wright all would have been non-starters. But the rest of these guys certainly would have fit a non-SB strategy nicely.

Of course you're going to lose out on some stats from guys who are tied into SB. But there are enough guys out there who hit for power and don't run that it should work.

My challenge usually has more to do with how I should budget if I'm dumping a category. It's not enough to turn the dial to zero on SB and pump up the players without SB in a linear fashion. You're probably competing with a roomful of owners who will be budgeting across all categories and need to adjust accordingly. Pushing the bid to $25 on Delgado last year wouldn't have made sense in a non-SB strategy. Going to $21 might have, depending on your freeze list and your other needs.

2 comments:

Eugene Freedman said...

A minor quibble. If you went for those guys- excluding Quentin and Huff and Ludwick on the respective lists b/c they weren't predictable, you would likely also be sacrificing BAvg. Dumping steals and going middle of the road in BAvg at best isn't going to do much good on offense.

Thome, Cust, and Giambi all hurt BAvg quite a bit. Howard, Dunn, and Burrell do that to you on the other side as well. That's 1/3 of the list. It's hard to buy the three category studs on the list and still compete in pitching.

However, dumping saves, b/c they are more concentrated and not necessarily correlated with any other skill (like ERA/Ratio), can work out a little better.

Toz said...

Well, 5 of the hitters in the NL are at least average neutral and hit over 30 HR. So picking out Howard, Dunn and Burrell really isn't fair. We can keep going as well...Holliday (the former national leaguer), Carlos Lee, Manny Ramirez are top tier OF without ties to HR that would significant help your average. There are lower tier options as well...you really only need one or two average+ guys to support a top 4 finish in average. Of course, this is also strategy dependent as well...depending on what you want to do in pitching, it may not work out.

Ultimately, saves and steals are the two target categories...I am much more apt to dump those saves.