Pitchers And Their Schedules Down The Stretch

Brett writes:

Yeah, I may regret going after (Jorge) De La Rosa and not (Jeff) Francis - but De La Rosa is pitching against Matt Palmer and his 2/7 K/BB ratio, while Francis is against (Matt) Cain and (Jake) Peavy.

Of course this kind of thinking screwed me last week when I picked up (Cha Seung) Baek for his start against (Barry) Zito, only to have him start against (Tim) Lincecum once the (Greg) Maddux trade messed up the SD rotation....

I spent some time last year (or wasted it, depending on your point-of-view) trying to determine if any pitchers had a scheduling advantage in the last two weeks of the season in both the American League and the National League. Instead of poring through those articles and playing gotcha with myself, I thought I'd take a look at some of the more successful starters last year and their strength of schedule down the stretch.

Top 10 MLB Starting Pitcher ERAs in September 2007

Rank	Player	W-L	IP	ERA	SOS
1	Yovani Gallardo	3-1	33	1.36	.477
2	Jon Garland	2-3	39	1.38	.493
3	Ian Snell	1-1	33	1.64	.512
4	Fausto Carmona	5-0	35 1/3	1.78	.474
5	Carlos Villanueva	2-2	31 2/3	1.99	.463
6	Scott Kazmir	2-1	31	2.03	.547
7	John Lackey	3-1	42 2/3	2.32	.484
8	Zack Greinke	2-2	27	2.33	.505
9	C.C. Sabathia	4-0	38	2.37	.493
10	Miguel Batista	3-1	39 1/3	2.52	.506
	Average	3-1	35	1.98	.495

This chart assumes a minimum of five starts for the month.

And it's an interesting chart, yet doesn't really tell us that much. Kazmir had a tough schedule, getting the Yankees and Red Sox (twice) but his worst outing of the month was against the Orioles. Greinke's schedule looks fairly rough, but he had two outings against the White Sox at the end of the season where the ChiSox were pretty much swinging at anything so they could go home. The same could be said for Garland in his two end-of-the-year starts against the Royals.

But who cares about pitchers like Lackey, Carmona, and Sabathia, who were owned in even those joker mixed leagues? What about the free agents?

Top 10 MLB Starting Pitcher ERAs in September 2007
FAAB/Claimed Only

Rank	Player	W-L	IP	ERA	SOS
1	Jon Garland	2-3	39	1.38	.493
2	Carlos Villanueva	2-2	31 2/3	1.99	.463
3	Miguel Batista	3-1	39 1/3	2.52	.506
4	Kevin Correia	1-1	30	2.70	.523
5	Adam Wainwright	2-3	38 2/3	3.03	.501
6	Gavin Floyd	0-3	31	3.19	.515
7	Jason Hammel	2-1	33	4.09	.551
8	Aaron Laffey	2-1	26	4.15	.493
9	Joel Pineiro	3-2	29 2/3	4.25	.493
10	Edinson Volquez	2-1	34	4.50	.508
	Average	2-2	34	3.02	.505

The schedules here are tougher (based on opponent W/L record). But you'd expect that; pitchers on winning teams are generally better and less likely to be sitting in the free agent pool as a result. Laffey's the only guy here who made the play-offs.

Over the course of five or six starts, there doesn't seem to be any kind of corollary. And, with some pitchers, there is no rhyme or reason. Laffey was great against the Angels and bad against the Royals before pitching well against the Royals. Volquez also had trouble with the Orioles. You'd think a pitcher like Hammel would have been pounded with the Yankees twice and the Angels, but he survived.

These data are certainly cursory. A far more detailed look at line-ups, pitches per plate appearance, and much more would need to be pored over to come to any kind of meaningful conclusions. Generally speaking, though, I'd say be wary of overusing match-ups down the stretch. They're good to look at and - like you - I'd rather see my pitcher face the Mariners than the White Sox. But the most important factor is always going to rest with how that pitcher is doing and whether or not he's got his A game.