Joe Blanton

nwhorton asks:

Any chance I can get a preliminary FAAB amount on Blanton?

Sure, what the hey?

There are two elements to this discussion: a review of Blanton's potential going forward, and the bidding climate in N.L.-only Rotisserie Leagues in mid-July.

First off, I'd agree with Fangraphs' assessment. Blanton's put up some decent Roto seasons, including a $19 year in 2005 and a $21 season last year, but he really profiles more as a "back end innings eater."

Besides the ability to go six and change every five days, there are a few other positives surrounding Blanton. He's not the severe flyball pitcher that some seem to think he is; in fact, Blanton's had a G/F over 1.0 every year of his major league career. Another myth surrounding Blanton is that he's more prone to giving up HR on the road, but the splits from 2005-2007 simply don't support that notion. He surrendered 27 HR in 315 1/3 IP in home versus 29 HR in 310 1/3 IP on the road.

The home/road splits do favor Blanton's numbers in the Coliseum, though. What's intriguing about Blanton's numbers is that almost all of his numbers are alike in the 2005-2007 splits...with the exception of his H/IP and his ERAs. It's actually worth looking at the entire line in Blanton's case.

	ERA	W	L	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	BA
Home	3.48	22	15	47	47	4	315 1/3	299	130	122	27	77	179	.250
Away	4.70	20	19	52	51	2	310 1/3	360	173	162	29	88	184	.292

This is a pitcher who was either lucky at home or the beneficiary of a pitcher's park. Or both. Why 61 fewer hits in five more IP when he's actually striking out slightly more guys per IP on the road?

I thought the Coliseum would explain it all. Everyone talks about the generous foul territory there, and how hard it is to hit a home run. But it isn't Blanton's HR/IP rates that wildly fluctuate. It is his H/IP.

And the Coliseum isn't as forgiving to hitters in that regard as you might think. It was 28th in H/IP in 2007 in the majors, but 18th in 2006 and 13th in 2005.

Was Blanton just luckier at home? Or was he more comfortable there, and perhaps pitched a little better as a result? I don't know.

Even though the HR/IP are neutral, it's hard to foresee him keeping the ball in the yard as much in Citizens Bank Park, even if he isn't a flyball pitcher. From 2005-2007, the Coliseum ranked 19th, 24th, and 25th in the majors in HR allowed. CBP was 2nd, 6th and 1st. The Coliseum is actually ahead of CBP this year, but that seems more like a one-year blip on the radar than the beginning of a new trend.

All of this ruminating over the numbers is my way of saying I agree with the linked Fangraphs piece. Blanton's an innings eater. He doesn't strike out enough guys to count on the H/IP staying at an acceptable level, and Philly should impact the HR/IP, even though Blanton's home/road splits show those numbers as neutral. He's not a guy I'd want to make a big FAAB investment in.

However, you might have to, which leads me to the second part of this analysis.

We already know that CC Sabathia and Rich Harden are gone. A.J. Burnett might get traded into the league, but he might not. It sounds like Erik Bedard won't be pitching until August, which means that the Mariners would have to try to slip him through waivers - and probably won't get the return they're looking for in a waiver wire deal.

That means that Blanton might be the best starter left.

In the N.L.-only Sportsline expert league that Toz participates in, Blanton went for $63. That seems like too much to me, but if you need pitching and you're low enough in ERA/WHIP, Blanton might be worth the risk to you. The hope would be that he fools enough N.L. hitters who haven't seen him too much if at all and that he's energized pitching for a contender down the stretch. My bid right now would be a conservative $25-35, which I'm thinking won't get him. I think Blanton goes for anywhere from $50-70 in most leagues, which is a high price, but isn't out of line, given that he still is a better risk than most of the free agent pitchers you're going to see in the free agent pool from here on out.