Saturday, July 19, 2008

The Best Free Agent Pitchers: N.L.

Top 10 2008 N.L. Free Agent Pitchers (to date)
RankPlayer$FAAB
Bid
FAAB
Date
2007
1
Ricky Nolasco
$25$15/12
-$2
2
Hong-Chih Kuo
$22$24/7
-$5
3
Taylor Buchholz
$21$19
5/19
$5
4
Jorge Campillo
$20$15/26
-$3
5
Jared Burton
$20$1
6/23
$8
6Damaso Marte
$17$307/6
$8
7
Brian Shouse
$16$125/12
$5
8
John Lannan
$15$2
4/28
$0
9
Todd Wellemeyer
$14$1
4/17
-$1
10Chad Durbin
$14$1
6/23
$3

Average
$18$7
$2

This list isn't quite as reliever-heavy as the corresponding A.L. list. I guess you could count Campillo in either camp, but he wouldn't have been FAABed if he was only a reliever.

Are these players on contenders in the N.L. league I track?

Nolasco and Campillo are on the 1st place team. Marte's on the 2nd place team. Wellemeyer's on the 3rd place team. Kuo's on the fourth place team. This is a much different story than in the A.L., where only Thornton and Downs are on a contender's roster.

Yet Kuo's the only reliever on a contender's squad. And he was picked up very early; his stats have been accumulating for the 2nd place squad all year long.

Once again - without running through every roster - it's apparent that the best teams acquire a lot of their players via trades or through the auction process. Burton's had an impact, but you're not going to throw Edinson Volquez or Ben Sheets overboard for Burton.

Another thing I'm curious about is how long some of these middle relievers will be able to keep it up.

Top 10 A.L. Relievers (Non-Closers) 2007
RankPlayer$AVG
Cost
+/-
2006
1
Rafael Betancourt
$26$3+23
$9
2
Joaquin Benoit
$18

-$1
3
Hideki Okajima
$17$1+5

4
Pat Neshek
$15$3+12
$12
5
Matt Guerrier
$15

$3
6Rafael Perez
$14

$0
7
Jaime Walker
$12$0+12
$5
8
George Sherrill
$11

$2
9
Scott Downs
$11$0+1
$7
10
David Riske
$10$1
-0
$2

Top 10 N.L. Relievers (Non-Closers) 2007
RankPlayer$AVG
Cost
+/-
2006
1
Heath Bell
$23

-$4
2
Peter Moylan
$20

-$1
3
Rafael Soriano
$20$5+15
$11
4
Russ Springer
$19

$7
5
Carlos Marmol
$17

-$7
6
Bobby Howry
$16$5+11
$14
7
Jon Rauch
$16$3+13
$11
8
Aaron Heilman
$16$4+12
$10
9
Ryan Franklin
$14

$2
10
Tony Pena
$14

$1

Average
$18$2+16
$4

In 4x4, these pitchers are far more likely to keep it going than you would think. Ten N.L. relievers who weren't picking up tons of saves earned $14 or more, and six of these guys weren't bought in most leagues. The list was sparser in 2007 in the A.L., but you could have picked up a $10+ pitcher via the free agent pool with four of the 10 pitchers on this list.

What I wish Alex Patton still had access to are the Won/Lost records that he used to include in his books and that Heath Data used to compile. Anecdotally, it would seem that guys like Wellemeyer are having more of an impact than guys like Burton or Durbin. But I'd have to look at many more leagues before definitively reaching that conclusion in either league.

I keep seeing that this cast of characters changes every year. Benoit, Neshek and Okajima owners can't be happy with the results this year, particularly since those guys probably went for $4-6 in more than a few leagues. That's not a huge investment, but it's enough to keep you from buying better players elsewhere. Picking up a cheap FAAB replacement who turns into Burton or Kuo is nice, but optimizing your auction dollars should always be a higher priority than churning through your FAAB and hoping to buy a lottery ticket.

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