Breaking Down the Rich Harden Trade

Anonymous wants to know:

Could (Rich) Hill be used in a deal for Harden?

No. No he can't.

Thank you and good night! Drive home safely, and don't forget to tip your servers!

OK, now that I'm done with that lame little bit of humor, let's take a look at the trade from a Roto perspective.

It's a lot easier to analyze from the Cubs vantage point. Rich Harden will immediately jump into the rotation, bumping Sean Marshall out. Like C.C. Sabathia, he should be bid on aggressively. He'd be my second choice behind Sabathia, but if I needed pitching I'd roll the dice on a healthy Harden. FAAB isn't like auction dollars; if you roll snake eyes here, it won't have the same impact as paying $20-25 for Harden in an auction would have.

Chad Gaudin moves to the Cubs pen. He's quietly put up some solid numbers in middle relief for the A's, and will probably do the same for the Cubs. He's also nice insurance for Harden. Gaudin has started before, and could probably jump into the rotation for the Cubs in a pinch. He doesn't have a lot of Roto value right now, but is a guy worth keeping an eye on. He might be worth a $4-6 bid in deeper N.L. only leagues.

OK, now the A's. This analysis is going to be a little harder.

The A's got three major league ready players in Sean Gallagher, Matt Murton, and Eric Patterson. What their roles will be is partly cloudy at the moment.

Gallagher's got the clearest picture. My guess is that he'll join the A's rotation immediately. Gio Gonzalez could be an eventual threat to challenge Gallagher, but I think the A's will go with the guy they just acquired. Gallagher's peripheral numbers are better than his ERA/WHIP show at the moment. His K/IP is particularly good, and I think pitching in a lower pressure environment in Oakland will help. He was a much better pitcher at Wrigley this year than on the road, so that's something to keep an eye on. I could see paying $8-10 for Gallagher in FAAB.

Murton's a guy I keep asking my Magic 8-Ball about, only to be told to "ask again later." Murton's a Billy Beane-type player: a guy who hits for OK power and walks a good deal, even if he'll never be a good BA guy. Murton was really struggling with the long ball in the minors this year, but his OBP was flirting with 400 and he's a guy some scouts have always loved. The downside is that he's 26 years old.

Patterson should head down to AAA Sacramento. My guess is that he's Mark Ellis insurance if the A's decide to either: a) trade Ellis now or b) not re-sign Ellis this winter. There has been talk of the A's locking up Ellis now, but I'm dubious if only because that's not their m.o. Like Murton, Patterson isn't young at age 25 for a prospect, so his window is rapidly shrinking.

If I had to guess, I'd say Murton is called up the the A's while Patterson isn't. Murton could slide into left field if the A's decide to end the Emil Brown experiment, or he could play OF/DH and spell guys like Jack Cust and Carlos Gonzalez when they need a break.

In the A.L., watch all of these players closely. Your bid price will rise or fall depending on how much Bob Geren uses these guys this coming week - that is, if they're on the MLB roster at all.