Taylor BuchholzIt might pay off to first look at the closers that these pitchers are waiting behind.
Brandon Morrow
Ryan Rowland-Smith
Grant Balfour
Al Reyes
Fernando Rodney
Brian Fuentes is currently closing for the Rockies, due to Manny Corpas' early struggles. There are rumors that the Rockies may move Fuentes at some point (he's a free agent this winter), and the combination of a possible Fuentes trade and Corpas' problems lead some to believe that Buchholz could be closing come August.
It certainly is a possibility. Corpas is signed through 2011, but at about $2M/year, it's hardly a contract that "forces" Colorado to stick him back in the closer role if he isn't pitching well. The Rockies seem to understand better than most organizations that closers aren't born but invented. Buchholz's numbers are spectacular, and he seems to be one of those pitchers whose stuff is suited for the shorter outings out of the pen. His BABIP indicates that he's due for some bad luck, but even if he puts up a 3.00 ERA with a 1.2 WHIP, he would be a reasonable option for the Rocks.
J.J. Putz has battled a number of minor injuries this season, and is currently pitching with a bum finger. The result is a heinous 5.60 ERA/1.92 WHIP, though the K/IP is strong, with 22 whiffs in 17 2/3 IP. The Mariners probably should put Putz on the DL, let him rest for 2-3 weeks, and have him back at full strength. That's not how they're handling this situation, though, so Putz continues to go out there and have his awful days, like he did against the Tigers last Sunday.
Conventional wisdom keeps pointing to Morrow as the closer if Putz can't go, but there seems to be some disagreement in the organization and the blogosphere as to whether or not Morrow is a starter or a reliever long-term. John McLaren sounds committed to keeping Morrow in the pen this year, and so far the results have been very good. Rowland-Smith has also put up solid numbers, but the more I look at what the Mariners are saying, the more I think Morrow would get the first crack.
Troy Percival is on the D.L. with a minor injury, and Dan Wheeler is the interim closer. Wheeler picked up his second save last night, and will probably get the handful of opportunities remaining until Percival comes back late next week. If something did happen to Wheeler, I'd guess Reyes would most likely be Maddon's choice. He did the job last year, and might have been ahead of Wheeler this year if not for his own injury. I still view Balfour as a middle reliever only. He picked up a save in his first MLB outing of 2008, but has been used as early as the sixth inning since then.
Todd Jones is his usual, quasi-reliable self. He gets the job done despite a poor K/IP rate and Jim Leyland trusts him. Leyland's also got, um, bigger fish to fry right now in that bullpen, as he's been mixing and matching while trying to find a reliable option behind Jones.
That brings us to Joel Zumaya and Rodney. Both just started rehab assignments. The Tigers will try to balance not rushing the two back with the gaping holes in their pen, but it's going to be hard for them not to rush either pitcher back. Jones should keep the job, unless the Tigers decide they're too far out of the race at some point and flip Jones for prospects. In that case, my guess is that Zumaya gets first crack at the job, with Rodney as the set-up.
Rankings? Like I said in an earlier post, none of these options whets your whistle. More depends on the status of the closer than the ability of the pitchers we're talking about here. If I had to, though, I'd go:
1) Morrow
2) Reyes
3) Buchholz
4) Rowland-Smith
5) Rodney
6) Balfour
Keep in mind that these rankings are virtually interchangeable, and apply to this year only, and to saves only. If Balfour keeps putting up reliable innings in the majors and gets some vulture opportunities, he could easily earn $15 (in 4x4) and be the most valuable pitcher on this list.
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