Homer Bailey
I've never seen Bailey pitch, so all I really have to go on are the raw stats. This can be advantageous, since I won't fall victim to watching one game and falling in love with Bailey's stuff. It can also be disadvantageous, since the numbers often don't tell the whole story. In Bailey's case, the numbers tell me that he's a good pitcher who doesn't look like a great pitcher. Yet. His K/IP dropped in AAA in 2007, which makes me think that he hasn't made the adjustment yet that great pitchers in the low minors need to make to become great pitchers in the majors. On the other hand, Bailey just turned 22 and is pitching in the major leagues. He could very well take the Scott Kazmir path and learn his craft in the majors before becoming a stud. My bid is a mere $15, which I suspect won't get him. He'll go for $25-30, which could very well be the appropriate bid, but one I'm not willing to make at the moment. My gut tells me to expect a 2-3 year difficult learning curve before Bailey has his breakout year - if he has his breakout year.
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