Any thoughts on Jose Arredondo? I think the Angel's closer situation might get interesting this offseason...I wrote briefly about Arredondo a couple of weeks ago. Since then, he's been outstanding for the Angels. He hasn't allowed a run since his major league debut, and he could see even more high leverage innings now that it looks like Scot Shields may be headed to the disabled list.
The more interesting part of Dr. Hibbert's comment is the second part. The good doctor is alluding to the fact that Francisco Rodriguez's contract expires at the end of this season, and it looks like the Angels are going to let him go. He could become the highest paid closer in Major League history, as he's a 26-year-old with 168 career saves and well over a strikeout an inning. The Angels don't appear to be interested; rather than try to lock him up to a long-term deal, they went to arbitration with K-Rod and won. Typically, when a pending free agent and his team go to arbitration, that's a terrible sign for the player coming back.
Arredondo definitely could be L.A.'s closer of the future. Scot Shields has been more banged up the last two years than he's ever been, and the Angels probably see him as more of a set-up than a closer. It was believed that Justin Speier might get a shot after K-Rod moved on, but Speier's been a mild disappointment this year.
Other closers who might be moving on after 2008:
Joe Borowski, Cleveland Indians. The touts have bitched about Borowski from the moment the Indians signed him two winters ago, but now it looks like the touts might be right. Borowski's only pitched nine innings this year due to injury, but scouts say he looks like he's throwing BP up there, with a lot of long flyballs coming as a result. I'd assume the Indians won't bring Borowski back. At the beginning of the year, it looked like Rafael Betancourt was the inevitable future closer, but now Betancourt has struggled, and it looks like Masahide Kobayashi has the inside track on the job in the future. He's signed through next year with a relatively affordable club option, so the Indians will probably try this route first in 2009.
Trevor Hoffman, San Diego Padres. Speaking of the Indians, the last time Hoffman was a free agent, he came within a whisker of signing with the Tribe before coming back to San Diego, partially with the rationale that he wanted to start and end his career with one team. Three years later, Hoffman's 40 years old and getting hit pretty hard. Heath Bell still looks like the next in line should Hoffman retire this coming off-season, and his numbers still look pretty solid again this year. If Hoffman wants to come back, that puts the Pads in that tough position of trying to balance putting the best team on the field with allocating their moderate resources correctly. I'd imagine that Hoffman will either come back to San Diego or retire.
Todd Jones, Detroit Tigers. I'm not sure the Tigers would have even brought Jones back this year if Joel Zumaya hadn't been injured. Like Hoffman, Jones is old (40) and the Tigers can probably do better with an internal option like Zumaya. The market is going to be thin, but I suspect that the Tigers flip to Zumaya in 2009 (assuming Zumaya proves full health and effectiveness) and Jones retires.
Jason Isringhausen, St. Louis Cardinals. At this point, who can predict what will happen with Izzy? I'd assume the Cards will try him as the closer again this year once he's healthy, but guessing how well or badly that will go is pointless right now. As far as signing Izzy goes, the Cards will probably let him go, but that scenario depends greatly on the development of Chris Perez the rest of the way, as I can't see Ryan Franklin taking the ball in the 9th for St. Louis to start 2009.
Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies. Along with K-Rod, Lidge is probably going to be the hottest relief commodity on the market next winter. He's putting up incredible numbers for the Phils, and his slider is nastier than I've ever seen it. I'm guessing that the Phils will push to re-sign Lidge as soon as the season is over. They've got $23M coming off of the books this winter, and they certainly haven't been afraid of committing money to closers in the past, signing Tom Gordon to a three-year deal in 2006 and chasing Billy Wagner fairly aggressively that same winter before Wagner signed with the Mets. Of course, it's hard to predict what the Phils will do since Pat Gillick won't be the GM, but I doubt this ownership group is going to go the Billy Beane-esque route and tab a numbers geek. Another thing that will push the Phils toward Lidge is the fact that Gordon's contract will be up this winter as well and they team doesn't have any appealing internal options to close.
Brandon Lyon, Arizona Diamondbacks. He's relatively young for this list, but Lyon has more than held his own as closer after a seismically shaky start. I can't see the D-Backs committing big money and multiple years to Lyon to be their closer, but if he pitches this well, anything can happen. Tony Pena has been OK this year and, unlike Lyon, is cost controlled until he hits arbitration for the first time.
Eric Gagne, Milwaukee Brewers. I have to imagine that the natives are Milwaukee are sharpening their pitchforks and getting ready to light their torches so they can chase this dude out of town. It's a long way from now to the winter, but I can't fathom the Brewers giving Gagne another $10M chance. Guessing who the closer would be here next year would be just that - a guess. As a footnote, Guillermo Mota is also up for free agency this winter.
Rafael Soriano, Atlanta Braves. I'll probably need to catch my breath to even contemplate the Braves bullpen next year. Will John Smoltz come back as the closer? Will Soriano ever be completely healthy. That last question will dictate how much money the Braves want to commit to Soriano, even if it's just as an insurance policy for Smoltz. Rotoworld believes in the Manny Acosta/Soriano committee, but I think the Braves would love to give the job to Soriano in the long-term. If Soriano and Smoltz both aren't options in 2009, the Braves might look outside the organization.
Kerry Wood, Chicago Cubs.
Despite the fact that everyone takes a deep breath every time this guy takes the mound, he's been very, very good as the Cubs closer this year. If he proves himself, though, he might price himself beyond what the Cubs are willing to pay, especially since Carlos Marmol is waiting in the wings. I'd guess the Cubs let Wood go unless he takes another hometown discount this winter, which I don't see happening.
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