Kyle Davies (plus the lament of the A.L.-onlies)

An anonymous poster wants to know:

Wondering what a good bid for Kyle Davies may be. Without studying the parameters of my league, maybe the better question is, How good is Kyle Davies?

Is he worth bidding on if I can't get him at a keeper price ($8-11)?

Or, will he help me enough this year that $16-20 bid is appropriate?

The answer to the first question is either "not very" or "I don't have enough information to answer that question".

Three years ago, at the incredibly young age of 21, Davies was a B+ pitching prospect in John Sickels' 2005 The Baseball Prospect Book, ranking as the 25th best pitching prospect in baseball. Most impressively, Davies had dominated hitters not only in A-Ball, but also in Double-A as a 20-year-old. The Braves refused to include him in their eventual deal for Tim Hudson. The sky seemed like the limit for Davies.

Three years later, despite the fact that Davies is only 24 years old, much of the bloom has come off the rose. The reports coming out of Kansas City last year said that his mechanics were a mess, and as a result all three of his once plus pitches had lost their zip and effectiveness. Many thought that Davies' problems were mental rather than physical, but sometimes those types of problems are worse. You can treat an arm injury quite directly, while a mental problem can take time to diagnose, let alone treat (I should point out I'm not saying Davies had this type of issue, but rather this was part of a great deal of speculation).

He came out of the gate this year at AAA Omaha in impressive fashion, putting together a 6-2 record with a 2.06 ERA in 10 starts before finally getting called up to the Royals. His first MLB start of 2008 was solid, as Davies allowed only one run in five innings (albeit with eight baserunners). While there certainly hasn't been a stampede of claimants for Davies' services, pitching-hungry owners (like anonymous) have been wondering if Davies is worth taking a stab on.

If you need the pitching, he is. But at a much lower FAAB price than what anonymous is suggesting. I'd stop as low as $3.

For one, Davies has two rough assignments ahead of him, visiting the Yankees tomorrow before returning home in his next start to face Texas. I'd wait until after his start with the Rangers before I even considered adding Davies to my staff.

But the other reason I'd hold off is because the K/9 still aren't back up to where he was back in 2004 in Myrtle Beach/Greenville. That year, Davies had put up an 11.35 K/9 in High-A followed by a 10.6 in AA. It wouldn't have been reasonable to expect Davies to keep whiffing hitters in AAA and the majors at such a high rate, but his drop in 2005 at AAA Richmond to 7.61 - combined with a jump in BB/9 - should have rang some alarm bells. The pattern continued through 2007. Davies kept around 7.5 K/9 - a good rate - but continued to walk too many batters. He was throwing hard, but with very poor command.

This year, he had walked fewer batters but with fewer whiffs. That could mean he's throwing smarter and getting outs with the stuff he has, but it could also mean that he's not throwing as hard and will get hit harder by MLB hitters who won't be fooled if Davies is only hitting the high 80s because he's afraid he'll throw ball four. I don't know. I haven't seen him pitch, and Davies' stock has fallen enough that the scouting reports on the Internet are few and far between.

I do understand where anonymous is coming from, though. In my A.L. only, the only free agent starting pitchers available besides Davies are Kenny Rogers, Miguel Batista, Jarrod Washburn, Sidney Ponson, Justin Masterson, Scott Feldman, Doug Mathis, and Radhames Liz. There's a good chance that Masterson and/or Liz get FAABed in my league this weekend; the rest of these guys are powder kegs waiting to happen.

And in a league with deep reserve lists like anonymous's has, the pickings are probably even slimmer. I'm not sure if active major leaguers like Rogers can be added to his league's reserve lists, but if they can they're probably sitting down there right now waiting to be claimed.

I'd still hold off on making a big bid on Davies, though. More pitchers will be churned by American League teams, and there are probably better options than Davies that we have yet to see. Blowing $10-15 on Davies might represent a lost opportunity down the line if someone better shows up and you don't have the cash to spend. I'd let someone else take this particular risk.