Sunday, June 01, 2008

FAAB Supplemental: June 1, 2008

National League
Jay Bruce

Anyone who didn't know who Bruce was before his call-up - even in a shallow mixed league - has to put on a dress and do some kind of as-of-yet uninvented walk-of-shame that I'll devise at a later date. The 21-year-old outfielder was beating up on AAA pitching, and has so far been incredible, batting an unreal 11-for-19 with a 1575 OPS. The most amazing thing about Bruce's mini-run to start his career has been that he's walked five times and only struck out once; in his nearly 200 AAA plate appearances this season, he struck out 45 times and walked only 12. That's more consistent with what he had done in the minors to date, and I expect the pitchers to adjust as well as they can against Bruce. Still, we're talking about a special player here whose is that Ryan Braun/Hunter Pence type who could feasibly be a Top 20 N.L. only player in 2008 even in an abbreviated season. He's a break-the-bank type player, and I say you're going somewhere in the $85-90 range if you want him. And you do want him - he has the potential to have more impact than any other player you'll FAAB this season.

American League
Carlos Gonzalez
If you play in a mixed league, Gonzalez is a guy you might have an opportunity to sneak in at a cheap price, since many owners will understandably be salivating over Bruce and understandably not as revved up about Gonzalez. Gonzalez was the prized prospect who came back to the A's in the Dan Haren trade, so he shouldn't be a complete secret to most. His minor league numbers have been solid so far, but I've always been of the mindset that he still needs some polish. In particular, I don't like the poor BB/AB numbers I've seen from him, particularly since Gonzalez projects less as a big-time HR guy and more as a solid 15-20 HR guy at his peak with line drive power. Batting average will have to be part of Gonzalez's game if he's going to have significant value at his peak. My assumption is that the A's are going to keep him in the line-up after Ryan Sweeney and Chris Denorfia come back if Gonzalez has any kind of success at all. I'd say bid $8 in non-keeper leagues, but bid $17 in keeper leagues, if only to block your opponents. Gonzalez strikes me as a guy who will be a good but not great major leaguer in his best case scenario.

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