Monday, May 26, 2008

N.L. FAAB Log: May 26, 2008

Jacques Jones $21. Other bids: $19, $13, $8, $5, $2.
I suppose he's worth the gamble, and 79 AB doesn't seem like a large enough sample to look at what Jones did with the Tigers and say p'shaw. But he also didn't hit for power in 2007, and he might be finished as a useful baseball player. Even if he does bounce back, his upside as a outfielder is probably not more than a 775 OPS. He's more valuable in Roto than real life if he can bring back his pre-2007 power. Like I said, I suppose he's worth the $21 bid, but he could just as easily be a huge bust. PT is PT though: if you need an outfielder, Jones is the surest thing out there this week for AB. At least at the moment.

Seth Smith $8. Other bids: $4, $4, $1, $1, $1.
With both Matt Holliday and Brad Hawpe hurt, Smith should play quite a bit in the Rockies OF. I like him better than Jones in the short-term. Smith isn't a big-time power hitter, but might still very well be good for 15-20 HR in a full season of play. I like how he looks at the plate, and one interesting thing to note was that Smith was 11-for-11 on the basepaths at Colorado Springs. Definitely buy; these bids weren't aggressive enough, in my opinion.

Cesar Izturis $3. Other bids: $1, $1, $1.
He's a borderline major league regular who is stretched as a starting shortstop. As long as he's starting, though, he'll steal a few bases and score some runs, so he's not a complete cipher. And he's batting average won't kill you, either. More valuable in Roto than in real life, and should be owned in very deep leagues, even if it tastes like bad fish going down your gullet.

Russ Branyan $2. Other bids: $1, $1, $1, $1.
It's hard to believe Russ Branyan is 32 years old. It seems like yesterday that I got sucked into Baseball America's drooling description of his "light tower power" and the 40 HR he hit in the Sally League as a 20-year-old in 1996. Yeah, I wasn't blind to the 166 whiffs, but I figured that Branyan's plate discipline would improve over time. It was an important lesson for me: don't waste a high farm pick on a strikeout machine. If someone is striking out that much in the Sally League, he's going to have trouble. Anyway, Branyan's up for the Milwaukee Brewers on this go round, with the promise of getting some playing time at 3B for the scuffling Bill Hall. My guess is that Hall will sit a few games, giving Branyan some limited value and a chance to have a 2-3 HR, bad BA week. He's worth a stab, but the low bids here are about right. I wouldn't go too much past the minimum. Branyan's not here to save the day; he's here to give Hall a mental break.

Brian Shouse $1.
Shouse was picked up in this league a mere two weeks ago for $12, then unceremoniously dumped back into the pool. Despite the fact that Eric Gagne's on the DL, the analysis on Shouse doesn't change much. I wasn't a fan of the $12 bid on Shouse, but why would you bid that much if you weren't committed to him, even as a set-up guy? It's not like Gagne magically got better between May 12 and my second cup of coffee this morning.

Paul McAnulty $1.
I gave McAnulty some faint praise at the beginning of the year, pointing out that he could have some value if Jim Edmonds got hurt or Scott Hairston fell off the map. Well, Edmonds is gone, but McAnulty has done little to push his way into more AB on the slumping Padres. He's probably got another week or two before Chase Headley pushes his way onto the scene in San Diego. McAnulty's OBP has been OK, but his batting average would need to be about 20-30 points higher for it to make much of a difference, even for a numbers-oriented team like the Pads.

Jorge Campillo $1. Other bid: $1.
The blisters the forced Campillo to leave his last start early might keep him on the sidelines for a few days. The Braves plan seems to be to flop and Jeff Bennett between the rotation and the pen, but I'm not sure Campillo's stretched out enough yet as a starter. He's getting them out with smoke and mirrors, which probably works better out of the pen anyway. For those of you mixed leaguers reading this, Campillo was a journeyman who bounced between the Mariners and AAA the last few seasons. He might have discovered something, but I doubt it.

Matt Herges $1.
Yet another reliever who has defied expectations and thin air and actually become better in Colorado than he was in his pre-Rockies days. The knock on Herges last year was that his K/IP was too low to see him sustain his success. This year, he's getting the whiffs along with the good ERA/WHIP numbers. He is what he is: an aging middle man who won't be in line for saves. But he has his uses in deep 4x4 N.L. only-leagues.

Luke Carlin $1.
He's a 27-year-old minor league journeyman who only got the chance to get a few starts for the Paders because Josh Bard hit the D.L. and Michael Barrett wasn't quite ready yet. Sure enough, his MLB numbers stink on ice thus far. With Barrett back, Carlin should go back to cracking jokes on the bench. Don't bid.

Jonathan Herrera $1. Other bid $1.
With every single middle infielder who ever played in the history of the Rockies hurt, Herrera should get a regular shot at AB. Like I said the last time I wrote about him, he's got speed but little else. Circumstances are somewhat different now, though: he should play, and could be a sneaky value at middle infield.

Augie Ojeda $1. Other bid $1.
It seems like every time I watch Baseball Tonight, the panel is talking about how wonderful Ojeda is. Perhaps this is just my perception, or I'm not watching enough Baseball Tonight this year. Ojeda's been swinging a hot bat most of the year, resulting in some spot starts for the D-backs. He's done little else, though, and the average isn't sustainable. He's also nursing a sore groin. Even in deep leagues, he's a bottom of the barrel pick.

Fernando Tatis $1.
Tatis should play against most lefties while the Mets deal with an extremely depleted OF. His approach in AAA New Orleans seemed to be a hit or miss one, with 12 HR but a ton of whiffs. He won't succeed doing that in the majors, so it will be interesting to see if Tatis keeps trying to hit bombs or if he goes back to his 2006 approach with Baltimore/Ottawa and opts to keep his swing level. He's a marginal play.

Omar Infante $1. Other bid $1.
With Chipper Jones day-to-day, Infante might get a start or two this week at 3B. His value is limited as a back-up though, he'd need to get 350-400 AB to be worth owning, and I don't see that happening. It's hard to believe this guy hit 16 HR in 2004.

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