Guthrie vs. Francisco

Over at Ask Rotoman's discussion board, yankee7 asks:

Trying to upgrade SP, but don't have a big gun available to deal.

I can get Jeremy Guthrie for Ben Francisco. Fair deal?

What is Francisco's upside?

As we all know, "fair deal" depends on what you're looking for and how much you think you can afford to give up. My supposition is that yankee7 is in a keeper league, or he wouldn't care too much about Francisco's long-term upside.

Even without the element of next year and future value looming on the horizon, I'll admit I'm somewhat leery of Guthrie. He's certainly an OK major league starter, as long as you're not relying on him to anchor your staff. But his ERA/WHIP probably don't match his K/IP. He has a crazy .207 BAA on the road, and while that number is certainly supported by the K/IP he's sporting away from Baltimore, I wouldn't bet on that number persisting.

But even if you put all of my numerical hoo hah aside, I just don't get a good feeling out of Guthrie. Some days he looks like he can get through six or seven innings OK, and some days you feel like you'd rather drag yourself through hot coals than watch Guthrie pitch. There is something to be said for liking the players that you own, and even if Guthrie continues his modestly successful season, he doesn't look like a good bet to do so.

Francisco, on the other hand, could turn into a $20 player. That isn't to say he will. Speaking of unsustainable, his .333 BA entering tonight won't keep up if he keeps walking once every 37.5 AB. He should cool off, and if you trade for him now while he's swinging the hot bat, you run the risk of trading for that inevitable 12-60 streak that's going to even things out for Francisco, but not for you, since you can't trade for the his stats retroactively.

I know I like Francisco better than most. And I know that his minor league numbers scream "tweener". But just like I have a bad gut instinct about Guthrie, my feelings about Francisco are good. I think he could be one of those players who defies the odds and puts up some crooked numbers in The Show. The BB/AB are always going to be a problem, and maybe the average will settle in somewhere between .250-.260.

But Francisco can hit for power and run. The Indians don't seem to have a lot of alternatives, and don't seem like the kind of team that's going to trade for a big name veteran so that the local media can write a warm, fuzzy story about how the Tribe is going for it this year and they really care about the fans. That isn't to say that the Indians wouldn't upgrade if a real upgrade was available. But they're not going to bring in some washed up veteran to prove a point and lose a couple of games in the process.

So would I make the trade? No. I'd roll the dice and hold on to Francisco, hope that I can sell him as a minor or moderate dump chip later, and try to do a little better than Guthrie through trade or perhaps even a bold FAAB move down the line.