We have a lot of auction bidding in the $2 to $10 range for relief pitchers who might become closers. There's nothing like a cheap source of saves to salvage a freeze list and a couple of these guys pan out every year. Of course, a lot of cash is wasted on pitchers who are no better than the $1 pitchers viewed as having no chances for saves. I've avoided this bidding the past 2 seasons.I thought I'd take a look at the relievers who went in that $2-10 range in my A.L. last year and see how many of them panned out.
$2-10 Relievers, Billy Almon Brown Graduate, 2007
| NOM | # | Player | Cost | Earned | +/- | Buyer | LB |
| DER | 26 | Joel Pineiro | $2 | -$2 | -4 | JSC | DER |
| COP | 64 | Mike MacDougal | $6 | -$9 | -15 | COP | BEN |
| BEN | 67 | Fernando Cabrera | $4 | -$9 | -13 | JIH | BEN |
| DER | 75 | Jesse Crain | $3 | $0 | -3 | BAT | JIH |
| BEN | 79 | Al Reyes | $10 | $19 | +9 | BAT | JAB |
| DER | 87 | Rafael Betancourt | $7 | $26 | +19 | DER | COP |
| JSC | 97 | David Riske | $4 | $10 | +6 | DER | COP |
| COP | 100 | Fernando Rodney | $2 | $3 | +1 | TOW | COP |
| BEN | 125 | Brandon Morrow | $2 | -$2 | -4 | BAT | BEN |
| GLA | 132 | Pat Neshek | $2 | $15 | +13 | COP | GLA |
| Average | $4 | $5 | +1 |
Ten relievers over $1 doesn't sound like a lot, but when you consider the fact that there were 162 total slots, that suddenly is a lot of speculation on who might get saves later in the year.
In fact, Reyes is the only guy here who wound up getting a significant amount of saves, and $10 wasn't a cheap price to pay back in April 2007 to find out if he was up to the task. Betancourt and Neshek certainly had value, but it was tied into their middle relief contributions, and not their saves. The group turns a small profit, but $4 feels like a lot to pay for a fungible middle reliever who earns you back $5.
You could argue that lumping Macdougal and Cabrera into this group and calling the entire group mediocre is a dim way of looking at it. That's a fair point, and one that needs to be addressed.
This winter, I looked at the top A.L. relievers sorted by price. For a more detailed analysis, I strongly recommend reading the linked article, but here were the Top 10 middle relievers in the A.L. in 2007, defined by pitchers who had 0-9 saves and pitched mostly or exclusively in relief.
Top 10 A.L. Relievers (Non-Closers) 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AVG Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 1 | Rafael Betancourt | $26 | $3 | +23 | $9 |
| 2 | Joaquin Benoit | $18 | -$1 | ||
| 3 | Hideki Okajima | $17 | $1 | +5 | |
| 4 | Pat Neshek | $15 | $3 | +12 | $12 |
| 5 | Matt Guerrier | $15 | $3 | ||
| 6 | Rafael Perez | $14 | $0 | ||
| 7 | Jaime Walker | $12 | $0 | +12 | $5 |
| 8 | George Sherrill | $11 | $2 | ||
| 9 | Scott Downs | $11 | $0 | +1 | $7 |
| 10 | David Riske | $10 | $1 | -0 | $2 |
| Average | $15 | $1 | +14 | $4 |
The AVG cost is derived from the predictions of Alex Patton, Rotoman, Sports Weekly, and the prices in the LABR and Tout Wars expert auctions.
Notice that the experts are even stingier than we are on these pitchers. They only want to pay $3 for Betancourt and don't chase Riske to $4 like we did. They do go a little higher on Neshek.
But the news here is that both my "regular" league and the experts take a pass on many of these guys. The $0 average price means that three of the five experts took a pass or said to avoid Downs and Walker. My league avoided Downs and Walker as well. We also took a pass on Okajima.
In the auction, that is. You'd better believe all of these players were owned at some point during the season in my league. Just because we don't know who these guys are in April doesn't mean we don't want a piece of the auction in July.
But, as the table above shows, we don't pay for it in April. And the table below shows why:
Top 10 A.L. Relievers (Non-Closers) 2006
| Rank | Player | $ | AVG Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 1 | Scot Shields | $8 | $7 | +1 | $18 |
| 2 | Joel Zumaya | $4 | $7 | -3 | $17 |
| 3 | Dennys Reyes | -$2 | $0 | -2 | $16 |
| 4 | Fernando Rodney | $3 | $3 | -0 | $15 |
| 5 | Justin Duchscherer | $1 | $3 | -2 | $14 |
| 6 | Hector Carrasco | -$6 | $1 | -7 | $14 |
| 7 | Scott Proctor | $1 | $1 | -0 | $12 |
| 8 | Pat Neshek | $15 | $3 | +12 | $12 |
| 9 | Rafael Soriano | $11 | |||
| 10 | Wes Littleton | $4 | $0 | +4 | $9 |
| Average | $3 | $3 | -0 | $14 |
These are the 10 best American League middle relievers from 2006, and only Neshek is any kind of success the following year
(In the A.L., that is. Rafael Soriano's $20 season is excluded from this list since he was not eligible to be purchased in A.L. Roto auctions).
We know that these guys are, for the most part, unpredictable. And, like any other market, we adjust our expectations downward, even though we know there might very well be a shiny 2007 Rafael Betancourt there for the taking.
But Rodger isn't spending $2-10 in the hopes of getting the 2007 edition of Rafael Betancourt. What he wants is the 2007 equivalent of Jeremy Accardo.
And, if 2007 tells you anything, it's that you should save your money at the auction, spend $1 on your relievers, and spend your FAAB.
Of the $2-10 relievers in my regular A.L., only Reyes got 10 or more saves. Jeremy Accardo went for $1 at got 30 saves. Alan Embree, Joakim Soria and C.J. Wilson were all FAABed and got 17, 17, 12 saves, respectively.
This could be a one-year anomaly. But I don't think it is. I think middle relievers are unpredictable, anointed closers-in-waiting often don't work out, and you're better off spending your money elsewhere.
No comments:
Post a Comment