I think it's generally a good idea to pick up just about anyone if you're playing in a 5X5 league.First of all, let's assume (as I'm assuming) that Brett is talking about hitters and not hitters and pitchers.If it's 5X5, I think the chances that the guy will at least score or drive in a couple runs offsets the BA hit that you'll likely to take. Also with such a small sample size (you're talking 10 or 20 AB) they may actually help your average. In a 4X4 though, the best you can hope for is a few RBI (I think it's best to assume you won't get any HR out of it). Not sure if that's worth the hit to your BA.
If that is the case, Brett is absolutely right from a theoretical standpoint. Alex Patton's mechanical formulas not only spread the wealth from three quantitative categories to four, they also dilute the batting average denominator from .0012 to .0015. In non-technical terms, Jorge Posada's .338 BA in 506 AB goes from being worth $9.6 in 4x4 to $8.3 in 5x5.
Obviously, this phenomenon works the other way as well. Jason LaRue's awful 2007 (.148 BA in 169 AB) loses $6.7 in 4x4; in 5x5, that putrid performance "only" loses you $5.8.
Someone like LaRue does seem to challenge Brett's assertion that adding runs as a category will offset the batting average hit of a truly bad player. But I'd have to take a closer look at some of last year's worst hitters to see what the impact of average is in both formats.
Worst 10 Hitters in 2007: 5x5
| Hitter | HR$ | RBI$ | SB$ | R$ | BA$ | '07 $ |
| Jason LaRue | $1 | $1 | $0 | $0 | -$6 | -$3 |
| Kory Casto | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | -$2 | -$2 |
| Andy Gonzalez | $1 | $1 | $0 | $1 | -$5 | -$2 |
| Mike Rouse | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1 | -$3 | -$2 |
| Juan Castro | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | -$2 | -$2 |
| Kelly Stinnett | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1 | -$3 | -$2 |
| Toby Hall | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1 | -$2 | -$1 |
| Paul Bako | $0 | $1 | $0 | $1 | -$3 | -$1 |
| Ben Zobrist | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | -$3 | -$1 |
| Brad Eldred | $1 | $0 | $0 | $0 | -$2 | -$1 |
Worst 10 Hitters in 2007: 4x4
| Hitter | HR$ | RBI$ | SB$ | R$ | BA$ | '07 $ |
| Jason LaRue | $1 | $1 | $0 | -$7 | -$4 | |
| Andy Gonzalez | $1 | $1 | $0 | -$5 | -$3 | |
| Mike Rouse | $0 | $0 | $0 | -$3 | -$3 | |
| Paul Bako | $0 | $1 | $0 | -$3 | -$2 | |
| Kory Casto | $0 | $0 | $0 | -$3 | -$2 | |
| Juan Castro | $0 | $1 | $0 | -$3 | -$2 | |
| Toby Hall | $0 | $0 | $0 | -$2 | -$2 | |
| Kelly Stinnett | $0 | $1 | $0 | -$3 | -$2 | |
| Ben Zobrist | $0 | $1 | $1 | -$4 | -$2 | |
| Chris Woodward | $0 | $1 | $0 | -$3 | -$2 |
The impact in 5x5 is indeed less, but it's not as diminished as you might expect.
Keep in mind that these are the 10 worst hitters, and there's an excellent chance you're simply never going to have one of them on your roster. The problem, though, is that if you're like Brett and simply grab a catcher because you've got a dead spot, you could wind up with this year's version of LaRue, Bako, Hall or Stinnett. LaRue and Stinnett especially were the kind of hitters you might have grabbed last year because they could pop the odd HR and you figured, what the heck, they can't hurt my batting average that much.
Oh, but they can.
Forty-eight National League hitters and 49 American League hitters earned ($0) or less last year in 4x4. Those numbers drop only slightly in 5x5: to 40 N.L. hitters and 45 A.L. hitters. The impact is slightly less, but it's an impact nonetheless.
We come back to the comment Tom made that kicked off this discussion in the first place. A lot of these hitters are just awful. There are always a few gems in the free agent pool, but they're often buried beneath piles of jagged glass and sharp rocks. There's a reason we didn't buy these guys at our auctions, and in most cases nothing has changed over a 15-20 game period that has suddenly turned these scrubs into stars.
2 comments:
Wait, Casto was triple A in 2007, only up and played ten games?
Wasn't Casto Minor League MVP twice?
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