Rangers Prospects

Eric wrote:

(German) Duran drew three FAAB bids, and now he qualifies in the OF! Read at BP that Duran was told he would be the first recalled by the Rangers front office.

I read/heard something about John Mayberry Jr. being on the fast track to be recalled later this summer.

Baseball Prospectus listed Duran as a "three-star prospect" in their write-up of the Rangers system (hidden behind their pay wall), ranking him 11th in the system.. Baseball HQ was high on him, too; I remember them bidding on him in the CBS Sportsline expert auction. Each year in the minors has shown marked improvement. At 23 years old, though, it seems like a full year of AAA wouldn't hurt. One thing Duran has going for him, though, is his possible versatility: his developing power bat would instantly make him a better option than Ramon Vazquez and his serviceable hitting.

One problem with prospect lists is that they become somewhat irrelevant as soon as the season starts and we've drafted our farm systems or reserve lists. Baseball Prospectus could be right about Neftali Feliz and he could be one of the greatest pitchers we'll ever see in our lifetimes. But he's a 19-year-old kid in Low-A; he's useless for us to even think about at the moment.

Mayberry fits into the same profile as far as I'm concerned. He might make the majors at some point, but he's a 24-year-old in Double-A. Unlike Feliz, his profile doesn't fit that of a top prospect. His batting average and walk totals seem to drop as he moves up the ladder, and I suspect he's the kind of guy who might get stuck at AAA. Even if I'm wrong, I don't see Mayberry making an impact this year.

Knowing who the Rangers top prospects are is actually less useful than knowing who is tearing it up in AAA and knowing where Texas' roster weaknesses are. Their outfield looks particularly thin, especially since I don't think David Murphy will keep this up and Milton Bradley's always a temper tantrum away from hurting himself. I don't like him, but Nelson Cruz is tearing it up right now with a 1234 OPS in 54 AB. Yes, it's a very small sample size, but I'm willing to bet that the Rangers are somewhat influenced by these numbers. Brandon Boggs is a personal favorite of mine, but hasn't done much yet to earn a promotion.

Jarrod Saltalamaccia's put up some strong numbers, too. and Ben Broussard's weak start could mean a promotion sooner rather than later, though I suspect Salty's defense will have to be more than just passable at 1B.

I'm doing what I've always advised against: looking at early stats to make definitive determinations. Remember, though, we're not trying to predict how successful of a career Nelson Cruz or German Duran are going to have. For the moment, we just want to gauge the possibilities of playing time if there happened to be an injury and we had an imminent FAAB bid on a player who was just called up. Of course you should know who Chris Davis and Taylor Teagarden are. But that's only half the story. You should also have an inkling of what kind of impact - if any - these players will have on this year's race.