Max Scherzer

TJ asks:

What's your take on (Max) Scherzer?

It's a question I'm sure hardcore Roto enthusiasts and casual baseball fans alike are asking after Scherzer's ridiculously awesome debut last night. Nate Stephens at Rotoworld had a good write-up today. John Sickels chimed in on Monday.

Regarding Scherzer's Rotisserie potential, he could fall on his face or he could be incredibly successful. He's a pitcher, so obviously he has a very wide range of expectations.

Yovani Gallardo and Tim Lincecum are excellent templates for what to expect from Scherzer this year in the majors. Both were promoted to the majors midyear in 2007 and both had high expectations. Both had electric stuff and both would put up an inning where they looked like no batter would have been able to get wood on the ball. At the same time, they also had innings were they didn't look like they belonged on a Major League mound. Both had great stuff, and both were learning their craft. They earned $11 and $12, respectively, last season. These earnings are certainly nothing to sneeze at, but neither hitter had the impact that a Ryan Braun ($32) or a Hunter Pence ($22) had on the other side of the ball.

This isn't a knock on Scherzer. A $12 season from an N.L. rookie starter last year would have put that pitcher at the top of the heap. It's harder for young pitchers to make a serious impact than young hitters.

Keep that in mind when you're bidding. The odds of a $20+ season are poor, and even expecting $15 in value might be pushing it. You might need the pitching badly, but don't chase too far or too hard expecting Scherzer to suddenly become a Top 20 MLB pitcher. Historically, the odds aren't in his favor.