One of the biggest difficulties when it comes to freezing your team is attempting to determine how much of a certain something is going to be out in your auction.
Determining inflation should be easy, even before the season starts. I predicted a 21.7% inflation rate for my A.L. only league; the actual inflation rate turned out to be 20.4%. This made winter trading somewhat easier; with a handle on how much each player's inflation value was, it gave me a more solid idea of whether or not there were certain players who I had at inflated prices who would either be worth keeping or possibly trading to another team.
The other part of this equation, though, is sorting through your league at every position and seeing how deep or shallow each position is going to be. Trading Casey Blake for Jack Cust might make sense as a true value proposition. However, if you think 3B is going to be a shallow position and OF isn't, you might hold off and hope that you can snag some value in the auction.
This year, second base is particularly thin in my league. Brian Roberts is available due to the trade risk, but after that it drops off to Jose Lopez, Asdrubal Cabrera, Erick Aybar and not much else. I had Roberts at $29, and I had to weigh one big negative (mainly the fact that we lose players to the N.L. and don't get their stats) versus the positives (he was a $34 player last year in 4x4 and provides a lot of speed).
If I wasn't aware of the other freezes in the league, I might have kept him and assumed the risk. However, looking at the other rosters in the league made me realize that 10 of the 12 teams in the league had at least one 2B frozen. This is the converse to the concept that "not many 2B are out there." Typically, if there is a lack of something at a position, it's because most teams aren't too keen because they've already got one. You have to assume that all 10 teams that own a 2B have a price set on Roberts, but it isn't $29; otherwise, I would have been able to flip him for something before the auction.
My price, even with inflation, isn't $29 either. I like Roberts, and he was a huge factor in my win last year, but Rotisserie isn't about loyalty. I have a price in my mind I'll go to, and if he goes over $29, I'll wave goodbye and be happy that someone else took what I consider to be too significant of a risk.
When cobbling your freeze list together, you have to have this information in mind at every position and for every player. Jumping on a trade that is nothing but a value proposition often seems to good to be true because it is. Freezing two closers at $50 when there is a glut of closers out there might not work in your league if the prices in the auction are going to be better than that. Always keep your league's potential freezes in mind when looking at trade opportunities and the players you're going to freeze.
UPDATE: Don't be fooled like I was by Camden Chat's report that Brian Roberts was traded to the Cubs.
2 comments:
Brian Roberts was thrown back at $33 in my AL-Only 4x4. I figured he was a $24 player based on the risk of being traded to the NL by 7/31 ($36*.67 of a season).
With a ton of money available and speed at a premium, Roberts went for $32.
Roberts cost $19 in my AL 5x5 league this past Saturday. Hitters were inflated at 16.3%. The risk of being dealt to the NL significantly reduced his value. I projected him at 275 ABs in the Patton software. That was worth $13 and $15 with inflation. The only 2B that were available and better were BJ Upton who went for $37 and Kendrick who went for $27. Yikes on both. Jose Lopez went for $14, Brendan Harris $11, Grudz for $9. No other starters were avail. Punto went for $4, Carroll $1, Bloomquist $1 and German $2. Iwamura who qualed at 3B only went for $17. With 2B being very thin due to keepers it seems our league seemed to believe in positional scarcity. Because I don't I was happy to have Polanco $12 and pick up Carroll at MI for $1. No need to overspend at 2B. I'd rather pay for production than position.
I sent you a link to all of our rosters/prices/etc.
Post a Comment