4x4 vs. 5x5

There was a lot of chatter about 4x4 vs. 5x5 after I posted the links to the LABR results. A few old school players (like me) lamented the fact that 4x4 gets little, if any, play in most fantasy coverage.

My money league is still 4x4 and I don't see it changing any time soon. The CBS Sportsline expert league I've been participating in for the last four plus years is 5x5, so I have experience with both.

Something I've noticed is the hitting bids in the expert leagues since they've moved to the 5x5 format haven't changed all that much. If anything, the bids on the top hitters have become far more aggressive.

Top 10 4x4 Hitters 2007

Rank	Player	4x4	5x5	Diff.	LABR '08
1	Alex Rodriguez	$53	$47	-6	$42
2	Hanley Ramirez	$51	$46	-5	$39
3	David Wright	$46	$41	-5	$45
4	Matt Holliday	$45	$41	-4	$38
5	Jose Reyes	$44	$40	-4	$42
6	Jimmy Rollins	$43	$40	-3	$36
7	Magglio Ordonez	$42	$39	-3	$23
8	Carl Crawford	$40	$36	-4	$42
9	Ichiro Suzuki	$40	$38	-2	$38
10	Eric Byrnes	$39	$35	-4	$24
	Average	$44	$40	-4	$37

Giving last year's 10 best hitters a $3 pay cut might not seem that aggressive, but the expectation (typically) is that last year's 10 best hitters are going to lose money. Seven of 2006's 10 best hitters earned less in 2007 than they did in 2006; they earned $38 per hitter in 2006 and "only" earned $35 per hitter. Take out Byrnes and Ordonez, and this group only gets a $1 pay cut per hitter. That's radical for 5x5.

This matters because it's harder in 5x5 to suck along with a few 150-200 AB hitters and succeed, since you're not just losing out in RBI but Runs as well. Paying $45 for David Wright is great in theory, but the odds are very poor that he's going to earn it, and you're less likely to luck into a $10 earner in 5x5 for $1.

Notice also that high SB/high runs guys like Rollins and Suzuki barely take any kind of earnings hit. Obviously, you can't build a team around guys like Suzuki without losing out in power, but making Ichiro your Cadillac player, as opposed to a power hitter, makes a lot more sense.

The changes in the pitching earnings are similar, but the bids fluctuate far more.

Top 10 4x4 Starting Pitchers 2007

Rank	Player	4x4	5x5	Diff.	LABR '08
1	Jake Peavy	$43	$36	-7	$31
2	C.C. Sabathia	$36	$31	-5	$28
3	Josh Beckett	$33	$28	-5	$27
4	John Lackey	$33	$27	-6	$24
5	Brandon Webb	$33	$28	-5	$30
6	Johan Santana	$33	$30	-3	$36
7	Fausto Carmona	$32	$25	-7	$19
8	Dan Haren	$29	$26	-3	$25
9	Erik Bedard	$29	$27	-2	$30
10	John Smoltz	$27	$25	-2	$20
	Average	$33	$28	-5	$27

Everyone looks at Carmona's 2007 earnings, rubs their eyes, and assumes that those most be his 4x4 earnings posted in Patton's software by mistake. On the other hand, Santana, Webb and Bedard all have to get better - right? - so the bids are pretty aggressive on these guys. A $1 drop for this group of pitchers based on their 2007 earnings is pretty radical stuff, particularly for 5x5, where the addition of strikeouts often turns low single digit earners in 4x4 into adequate back-of-the-rotation pitchers.

In both Sportsline and LABR, the pitcher bids definitely were paying a lot more for strikeouts and worrying about all of the other stats later. Tim Lincecum ($22), Yovani Gallardo ($19) and Ian Snell's ($17) prices jumped out at me off of the N.L. page; Lincecum went for $1 less than Cole Hamels and the same price as Roy Oswalt. In the A.L., Scott Kazmir ($26), James Shields ($25), Felix Hernandez ($24) and Javier Vazquez's ($23) prices jumped out at me as quite high. Roy Halladay doesn't strike a lot of guys out but, at $18, I'd rather have him and fill in the rest of my rotation with balance than take the chance that this is finally the year that Felix steps forward.

I discussed in a previous post the hit closers take in 5x5. This is old news, and you have to watch your league to know where these prices are going. LABR A.L. followed the lead of Sportsline, and no closer went past $27. Intuitively, this makes sense; even J.J. Putz's amazing 2007 campaign was only worth $30 in 5x5 last year. You do want to watch the bargains. Brandon Funston of ESPN got Troy Percival and Todd Jones at a combined $22. While I'm not in love with either pitcher, getting two closers at $22 is worth doing.

If you are switching to 5x5, pay closer attention to tweaking your pitching bids. You want as many everyday players as you can stuff on your 5x5 team, but there's more nuance in building a pitching staff. At some point, you might carry six or seven starting pitchers, but that doesn't mean you have to start out with six or seven. ERA/WHIP still count, and getting trounced in these categories still puts you behind the 8-ball, no matter how many whiffs Daniel Cabrera gets for you this year.