Sportsline High Priced Hitters: Another Take

I've been discussing the high prices in the A.L. CBS Sportsline expert auction in a number of recent posts. One of my theories is that the auction had elements of a Stage One auction. This would explain the high prices on players like Alex Rodriguez ($54), Miguel Cabrera ($46), Alex Rios ($35), and a handful of others.

However, there is another possibility.

We all sometimes only see things from our own narrow world view. When it comes to valuation, I tend to look first and foremost at Alex Patton's pricing and dismiss everyone else's pricing. Is it possible, though, that other pricing systems rate the stars higher?

Top 10 AP 5x5 Hitters 2007

AP Rank	Player	AP$	RT $	Diff.
1	Alex Rodriguez	$45	$55	+10
2	Ichiro Suzuki	$38	$42	+4
3	Magglio Ordonez	$37	$46	+9
4	Carl Crawford	$36	$39	+3
5	David Ortiz	$32	$39	+7
6	Brian Roberts	$32	$34	+2
7	Curtis Granderson	$30	$35	+5
8	Chone Figgins	$29	$31	+2
9	Grady Sizemore	$29	$33	+4
10	Nick Markakis	$28	$33	+5

One thing we rarely look at anymore is valuation. The pricing wars, as Patton once said, are over. We might quibble by $1 or $2 here and there, but A-Rod is worth somewhere between $43-46 in just about every pricing system.

Or so I assumed.

But look at this chart! A-Rod is worth $10 more than Patton says he is, according to Rototimes. Magglio Ordonez, a player with virtually zero speed to speak of, earned $46. Same with David Ortiz, who earned $39.

By Rototimes' reckoning, these players were bargains in the Sportsline auction! And I'm a fool for not pushing A-Rod up another dollar!

If the top players are worth more, though, I have to assume that the players in the middle are worth less.

71-80 AP 5x5 Hitters 2007

AP Rank	Player	AP$	RT $	Diff.
71	Jermaine Dye	$13	$16	+3
72	Howie Kendrick	$13	$14	+1
73	Aubrey Huff	$13	$15	+2
74	Jack Cust	$13	$16	+3
75	Vernon Wells	$13	$15	+2
76	J.D. Drew	$13	$15	+2
77	David DeJesus	$12	$14	+2
78	Mark Grudzielanek	$12	$14	+2
79	Jason Kubel	$12	$13	+1
80	Kenji Johjima	$12	$13	+1

They're not. From a pricing standpoint, that's a problem.

Retrospective prices are different than bids; they don't have to add up to a league's budget. In fact, they should go over, since players who enter the league from the minors, the free agent pool, or the "other" league add more stats into the league than what we buy. However, I know that the Patton prices for the 276 most common players who were bought in auctions last April do add up to $3120.

So Rototimes' prices are too high. That makes a bigger difference in the Top 10. The differences here aren't as interesting. But I expected a drop for Rototimes somewhere.

And, after a lot of squinting, I found it.

121-130 AP 5x5 Hitters 2007

AP Rank	Player	AP$	RT $	Diff.
121	Ben Broussard	$6	$5	-1
122	Willie Bloomquist	$5	$4	-1
123	Mike Redmond	$5	$4	-1
124	Gregg Zaun	$5	$6	+1
125	Jason Giambi	$5	$5	0
126	Scott Podsednik	$5	$3	-2
127	Bobby Crosby	$5	$4	-1
128	Darin Erstad	$5	$4	-1
129	Adam Lind	$5	$5	0
130	Freddie Bynum	$5	$3	-2

Finally, Rototimes' pricing system finds a place to pay less than what Patton says we should pay retrospectively. These differences certainly aren't exciting, but they are differences.

And, if you believe in Rototimes' system, then paying $54 for A-Rod or $46 for Miguel Cabrera isn't unrealistic. The guys at the bottom of the barrel are, in actuality, worth less.

Let's say we could go back and have a retrospective auction. Scott Podsednik comes up. The bid is $3. Do you want him? (In a retrospective auction, that is. In a real auction, I want more profit from my $3 player.)

If you told me that his stats were worth $5, I sure do, assuming that most of the pricing systems are going to be similar. That's a $2 profit, and if I can get a $2 profit on all of my players, I've got a $306 team, which would be competitive in most leagues.

But if you told me he was only worth $3, I'd pass. Getting par back in a retrospective auction would leave me with a $260 team.

So there is another possible explanation for the high prices in the Sportsline expert auction. If you believe A-Rod earned $55 last year, buying him for $54 makes a certain amount of sense. Even if he slips and "only" earns $48, you're buying $48 worth of stats.

Of course, I don't believe any of this. Rototimes' pricing model is a Stage One pricing model. A-Rod wasn't worth $55 in 2007, he was worth $45. And the team that bought him for $54 in Sportsline overpaid.