Sorry for the delay in posting, but this cold just got the better of me. You will recall that we discussed the overpriced outfielders in the prior post. Today, I am going to put the bargains out there. Note that the players will be listed by price on my sheet.
Frankly, there were very few bargains among the top 20 outfielders. In fact, only 4 went for par or less: Pierre (who actually went $1 over my par value at $21, but, given he went early, is a bargain); Rowand (who went for $13, $5 below my par); Burrell ($17 and at my par); and Fukodome (also at $17 and at my par).
The endgame, however, saw bargains galore. Let me list them here. I doubt you will get them at these prices in your league, but we'll talk about that more at the conclusion of outfielders tomorrow in the analysis).
Pierre: $21 (15th, +$1) Given where Pierre came up in the draft, this is a very good price. While we all expect Pierre to eventually fall off the earth, there is no disputing his consistent numbers year after year. The caution here is a crowded outfield - if the Dodgers cannot move Ethier, Pierre may be the one to go. I would still be very comfortable with this price.
Rowand: $13 (81st, -$5) I put Rowand on here because he is a topic of conversation throughout "tout" land. I do not think you can expect CBP numbers from Rowand. He is moving to a less friendly hitters ballpark, to a weaker lineup, to a pitcher-laden division. Moreover, he is no longer in his contract year. Nonetheless, even Rowand's "bad" years are decent earning years, and he can earn you a profit at this price. Keep in mind Rowand plans to run more, and the Giants have made no secret of the fact that they will run more as a team; this could make up for the loss of HR that we expect to see.
Kearns: $8 (144st, -$6) I think Kearns took a hit because of his very poor year in 2007, and the timing of his call. The Nationals outfield is crowded, but Kearns is only 27 and just moving into his 3rd year as a full-time player. The move out of RFK will help him, and, hopefully, that power will return. If you can get Kearns for $12, I think you still see a bargain. Both Mike Fenger and I see him at $16, even without good speed, so bid accordingly.
Winn: $9 (155th, -$6) Winn is as much the result of a gaffe in auction; someone went off-line and the auto-draft ran his team for awhile. Always bad lol. Anyway, Winn came up a couple of rounds later for about $4 cheaper than previous. Winn doesn't get a lot of press, but he is a producer. It seems as though he has been around forever, but he is only 33, and will provide you with double digit HR, double digit SB, a neutral average at worst, and usually better than that. He is someone to try and slide in later in your auction.
Nady: $5 (208th, -$9) Well, the money had to run out sooner or later, and the bargains (particularly in the outfield) really began to fall hard. With an average in the .260s, Nady's power spike last year is encouraging. While he is in a weak lineup, he can produce with this stroke. I would hesitate to pay full value for him, but the very low double digits for a starting outfielder would be a good grab for your 3rd or 4th outfield slot.
Jenkins: $5 (151st, -$9) Jenkins strikes out a lot. It doesn't matter if it is left handers or right handers throwing; he just doesn't walk much and strikes out a lot. He will have a lot of company in that Phillies lineup. Here's the catch. He is on the right side of the platoon, and, last year, in 355 AB against righties, he hit .260+, with 18HR and 50 RBI. Now that is what I'm talking about. The bad news? 42 AB in CBP - .216 average with 4 HR and 16 Ks. Ouch.
Freel: $3 (172nd, -$11) $14 on your sheet Toz? Are you crazy? Yes. Forget Jay Bruce for a moment; this is pre-Lofton rumors. While that outfield is crowded, in the three years prior to last year's injury-plagued season, Freel was stealing bags in the mid-30s with a steady .270s average. Moreover, he is a super sub, able to play 3 positions (or more, if you want to risk him or someone playing with him getting hurt). I think Freel's number needs to come down with the constant Lofton rumors at this point, but he is still someone to keep in mind. If your league has carryover stats in the event of a trade, even better.
Edmonds: $2 (178th, -$10) Edmonds is clearly in decline. Nonetheless, he is going to play if (haha) he is not injured, and when he plays, he produces. There is absolutely no way you can permit your opponents to get Edmonds for $2. Now, I will not tell you to go out and pay $12 for him either (notice he is not on my roster); temper your bid accordingly. Do not, however, let someone walk away with 4th outfielder stats for an endgame price.
Church: $4 (183rd, -$7) There is nothing exciting about Church. At 29, however, he is slightly on the uptick and I anticipate a slight power boost moving to Shea (though this is no hitters paradise). As a full-timer, again, you cannot allow this type of price. He will earn $10 at a minimum, even without speed, and you should make sure he goes for double digits.
Kotsay: $1 (264th, -$7) Now, I downgraded Kotsay because of his injury history, and, frankly, I just don't like him staying healthy all year (sorry Mark if you are reading this). On the other hand, full time outfielders should not be falling in during the endgame (and this is very endgame) for $1. Do not let this happen. Unfortunately, the injuries have robbed Kotsay of a lot of power, and he has little speed to speak of. If the average tanks, this could be a long year, and the rookies are lying in wait. I would suggest saying $2 or $3, but be careful after that. If he earns 2005 numbers, so be it.
Tomorrow, I will give you a wrap up by talking about some kids, some surprises and my general thoughts on the offensive part of the auction (guys like Pearce, Bruce, Anderson, Hopper, Rasmus, and more). Thanks for being patient while I struggled through this cold, and feel free to e-mail me any questions or post comments.
No comments:
Post a Comment