Sportsline A.L. Results - Closers

Today, I'll take a look at all of the reliever prices from the auction in today's post.. Keep in mind that these are 5x5 prices; 4x4 closer prices are typically more expensive.

RED SOX: Jon Papelbon $28, Hideki Okajima $3.
Unlike last spring, when there was some drama about whether or not Papelbon would close, this year he's obviously the man. If you could find anything to complain about, it would be the low IP total, but Paps still struck out 84 last year, so it's not like the low innings affected his value all that much in 5x5. He's probably the Cadillac of the closers. Okajima is more of a high K set-up option than a closer-in-waiting.

MARINERS: J.J. Putz $25
Reports started coming out of Seattle as early as March last year that Putz had a balky elbow, but all he did was put up a season that put him well ahead of fellow closers Joe Nathan, Bobby Jenks, Papelbon and Francisco Rodriguez. This is the one closer I regret not pushing $1 higher.

ANGELS: Francisco Rodriguez $24, Scot Shields $2, Justin Speier $1.
K-Rod's clearly the man in L.A. The Shields price has more to do with the fact that he's a middle reliever who could strike out 90 and not with the idea that he'll be the closer if K-Rod got hurt. Shields has been the go-to guy in the past when K-Rod needed a rest, but his workload has been decreasing since 2004, and I wouldn't be surprised if Speier stepped in for the odd save opportunity as well.

TWINS: Joe Nathan $22, Pat Neshek $6.
If not for the trade risk, Nathan probably would have went for Putz money. He's one of the elite options in A.L.-only Roto. The trade winds regarding Nathan have been quiet, but the expectation is that Nathan will be moved somewhere near the trade deadline mid-year. If that happens, this price won't work out. That would also explain the $6 price tag on Neshek. I'd imagine the expectation is solid middle relief numbers for half a season and then 15-20 saves after Nathan is moved.

YANKEES: Mariano Rivera $22, Joba Chamberlain $11.
Rivera's price drops due to his poor April, and the perception that he's going to gradually decline now that he's entering his Age 38-season. It's possible, though he did recover after April and post solid numbers, even if they weren't quite Mariano-like. One thing to watch with Mo is his numbers on zero-days rest declined somewhat in 2007. Joe Girardi might pick his spots a little more and spread out the save opportunities if Rivera has pitched the day before. Chamberlain, meanwhile, is preparing for 2008 like he's going to be a starter, but my guess is that he'll spend a good portion of the year in the pen. With his nasty stuff, high Ks, plus the opportunity for a good amount of vulture wins and saves, this bid isn't that far off. I stopped at $9 in Sportsline.

WHITE SOX: Bobby Jenks $21
He quietly put up just about as stellar a real baseball season as Papelbon did. He's not as valuable in 5x5 because of the strikeouts, but one would hope that Jenks finally won Ozzie Guillen over with his scoreless streak last season.

ATHLETICS: Huston Street $18, Joey Devine $3
Like Nathan, Street's price drops because of the perceived trade risk. He did miss some time due to injury last year, but seemed more than fine when he returned, even posting a higher K/IP rate than he had ever done in the past. Devine is the touts' darling for saves if Street does get moved, but I'm not convinced that Devine is the automatic favorite for the job. Santiago Casilla or even last year's fill-in, Alan Embree, might get the job if Street is moved.

ROYALS: Joakim Soria $16
The market is relatively sluggish on Soria. I suspect it's because he came out of nowhere last year, and will have to prove himself all over again in 2008. The numbers last year looked great, and I think this price is probably too low. I expect Soria's sophomore season to be somewhat like Street's: expect some regression in the ERA and to a lesser degree the WHIP, but he should be a fine option going forward.

TIGERS: Todd Jones $14, Fernando Rodney $1, Joel Zumaya $1.
Jones has been the Tigers closer for two years. Every spring the touts return like the swallows of Capistrano to tell us that Jones isn't going to make it as the Tigers closer. And every year, Jones goes through an obligatory rough patch but then hangs on to the job all year. Of course, Jones is 40 years old, so one of these years the touts will be right. But don't bet on Jones flopping and let him go into single digits. Rodney is probably the logical CIW should Jones fail. Zumaya is projected to be out of action until the All-Star break, so his pick at $1 in a non-carryover league is somewhat puzzling.

INDIANS: Joe Borowski $12, Rafael Betancourt $6, Masahide Kobayashi $1, Rafael Perez $1.
Obviously, no one trusts Borowski, but he's got the contract, and Betancourt is probably more valuable to the Indians pitching two innings than one, especially because stretching Borowski into a two-inning role wouldn't end well. Kobayashi was an elite closer in Japan, and it's possible that Eric Wedge would try him in the closer role if Borowski imploded. Perez is a fine middle relief option who I don't think will get a shot at saves this year. One thing to note about Borowski is that he strikes out a pretty decent amount of guys and isn't a liability in that category.

BLUE JAYS: Jeremy Accardo $11, B.J. Ryan $3
The Blue Jays are saying that B.J. Ryan will be ready to pitch on Opening Day. Given the Blue Jays, um, dubious record on reporting Ryan's health, I won't believe it until I see him throwing in a game situation. If Ryan is healthy, the question then becomes how to the Jays play this situation out. My guess is that they'll do something similar to what the A's did with Street and Embree last year. Ryan will pitch in some low leverage situations at first, and probably be eased into the closer's role after a few weeks. When that will actually happen is anyone's guess at the moment.

RAYS: Troy Percival $10, Al Reyes $4.
Percival's got the big contract, so he should close all year, barring health issues. At his advanced age and with the rust of 2006 perhaps not completely worn off his set-up, Al Reyes, went for $4, which strikes me as a high price for a set-up guy who might not get that many save ops. I think Percival should be OK as the closer, though perhaps the move to the tough-as-nails A.L. East and the prospect of 36 meetings against the Yankees/Red Sox is also a little scary to prospective owners.

RANGERS: C.J. Wilson $8, Joaquin Benoit $4, Kazuo Fukumori $2, Eddie Guardado $1.
Right now, it looks like Wilson has the inside track here, even though Benoit probably has the nastiest stuff in this pen. Another school of thought is that if Guardado proves he's healthy, he'll get the job since he's a Proven Closer. Right now, we have to take the Rangers at their word and assume that Wilson has the job. I'm cynical, however, that he'll succeed. His left/right splits are radical, with an 301 BAA and and 829 OPS against versus right handers in 2005-2007. Wilson might start out the year with the job, but I think he's a poor bet to keep it all year.

ORIOLES: George Sherrill $7, Jamie Walker $4.
Sherill's still officially on the Mariners, but I'm assuming that Crucial Sports bought him at this price with the assumption that he might close for the O's after the Erik Bedard trade goes through. I bought Walker at $4 late, after noticing that there were two other teams that had completely dumped saves. These prices are not surprising for an early February auction. The winner of the job (who, by the way, might not be Sherrill or Walker) will go for a little more money, while the loser might no go for more than $1 or $2. Personally, I find it puzzling that the Orioles are willing to rely on a situational lefty to close for them, but the Orioles seem to running their off-season like a bizarre carnival exhibit. I can't see going more than $10 for whoever wins the job.