Continuing with my analysis of the A.L.-only CBS Sportsline auction, I'll focus today on the American League first basemen.
BEST OF A WEAK BUNCH: Justin Morneau $30, Carlos Pena $27, Paul Konerko $26. All three of these guys went a little higher than I thought they would, with Morneau in particular sailing a few dollars past my bid limit. This bid assumes a return to his 2006 form. I agree that the power might come back, but I'm not convinced the batting average will. Pena's a bargain if he can duplicate last year, but the market's obviously somewhat cynical that he will. After Konerko's sub par 2007, I thought my $25 bid limit would get him, but be aware that enough people are thinking he'll bounce back. If you want him, you might want to make an adjustment on your draft sheet.
THE UP AND COMERS: Ryan Garko $18, Kevin Youkilis $18, Casey Kotchman $16.
I probably need a better name for this trio; Garko (27) and Youkilis (28) aren't young hitters who are about to get better, but rather two established hitters who may have reached their respective peaks. Nevertheless, the touts' conventional wisdom expects a power boost for all three. It's possible, though both Youkilis and Kotchman tailed off Post All-Star in the power department. For Kotchman in particular, the question remains as to whether he'll hit for power like he did in the first half, or become more of the .320 line drive hitter he was in the second.
These prices all look OK to me. Due to the lack of high octane 1B, the obvious temptation is to push one of these guys past $20. I wouldn't.
LOOKING TO BOUNCE BACK: Aubrey Huff $15, Lyle Overbay $13, Richie Sexson $11.
I wound up buying Overbay at $13, after almost every other starting 1B was off the board, and Toz was practically screaming at me to buy someone. I think he's a good bounce back candidate this year (Overbay, not Toz), though I'd expect something more along the lines of 2004-2005 than 2006. Huff is one of those players who had an amazing season or two many years ago who people expect to bounce back to that level. I say that year looks too much like an outlier. Sexson's drop off last year was the most mysterious. He was always a poorer BA bet against righties, but last year he simply disappeared, hitting an anemic .195. The bet here is about right. I might go as high as $13 to see if you can't catch lightning in a bottle, but we've all seen enough power hitters disappear unexpectedly early in their careers to know not to assume that Sexson automatically will.
THE ROOKIE: Daric Barton $10.
Like Jarrod Saltalamacchia, I called out Barton hoping to suck $13-15 out of the room relatively early. It didn't work with Salty, and it didn't work with Barton either. This price seems OK. Barton hit .293 at AAA Sacramento with 9 HR. I think he'll be a fine player long-term, but he might not do more than hit 10-12 HR this year with a .270-.280 BA as a full-timer. I wouldn't say avoid, but hedge your bets.
FULL TIME OR PART TIME?: Dan Johnson $9, Ben Broussard $8, Brad Wilkerson $7.
All three of these hitters could be bargains, but all three could also see a dip in playing time due to a possible platoon, a crowded 1B/OF/DH situation, or both. There's some talk of the Mariners trying to solve Wilkerson's poor BA by sitting him against tough lefties. That would be a mistake. He's actually been a weaker option against righties, albeit with good power, and his BA could actually sink even lower. With Chris Shelton optioned to AAA, Broussard is currently without a platoon partner, but he's a virtual cipher against lefties. The Rangers were toying with the idea of Jason Botts as his 1B compliment this winter. Johnson is about as good as he is against lefties as he is against righties, but all that means is that he hasn't really been good enough to hold down a major league corner infield job. With Barton on the scene, and talented Diamondback imports Carlos Gonzalez and Aaron Cunningham perhaps only a good half minor league season away from a shot, Johnson's time might soon be up.
THE CRAPSHOOT: Ross Gload $2, Kevin Millar $2, Ryan Shealy $1.
These are also all potential bargains, though there's a reason that all of these guys fell through. I like Millar the most here; he always gets maligned for never living up to his 2003 season, but Millar has earned $8-11 the last three years. One of Gload and Shealy will probably be a bargain at this price, unless Justin Huber somehow falls back into favor in the post-Buddy Bell era. Gload is probably the safer bet, while Shealy has far more upside if he can find his AAA Colorado Springs form of two years ago.
2 comments:
It looks like the league got firstbase pretty down pat. Personally I have a problem paying those dollars for goes like Morneau and Konerko, not to mention Pena, who could have huge HR and RBI totals, but their averages are all over the map. At .270 or even .285 they won't get to $28 in earnings unless they lead the league in the power departments, since none of them score a ton of runs.
The only guys who stand out as wrong to me are Barton, who might have playing time issues, with Mike Sweeney signing today and Johnson being more ready, and Aubrey Huff, who is a second half player who could just disappear one year. He's been on a slow and steady decline for 5 years now.
I think Broussard is going in the right direction in terms of ballpark and Wilkerson the wrong one, but playing time may favor the later. They seem slightly too high given that Gload is essentially the same player and went for so little in comparison.
This league auctioned before the Sweeney signing.
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