My guess for the split 75-25, maybe even more towards hitting. That's a beginner league in my book.Believe it or not, leagues used to spend significantly less on hitting.
You can find Alex Patton's old Notes for Masochists from his seminal books over at Ask Rotoman.com. The players Patton talks about are long gone, but the pricing splits in those leagues reflect the same salary cap realities Rotisserie Leagues face today.
In his 1990 audit of 1989, Patton runs through what specific leagues spent on hitters per league:
The Dirty Dozen, formed in 1988, spent $11.5 per hitter; South Main Street (1987), spent $11.8 per hitter; The Crabhouse League (1986), $12.2. On and on like that, until you get to the American Dreams, formed in 1981, spending $12.8 on each hitter. It's fascinating stuff.It sure is. Let's look at it in tabular form.
1990 Spending by League
| League | Per Hitter | Hitters by Team | Per Pitcher | Per Staff | Split |
| Dirty Dozen | $11.5 | $161 | $38 | $99 | 62/38 |
| South Main Street | $11.8 | $165 | $19 | $95 | 63/37 |
| Crabhouse | $12.2 | $171 | $40 | $89 | 66/34 |
| American Dreams | $12.8 | $179 | $32 | $81 | 69/31 |
The Dirty Dozen, the newest league amongst the four listed here, spends the most on pitching. American Dreams spends the least, and comes closest to hitting Patton's theoretical 70/30 split.
Inexperienced leagues tend to spend less, not more, on hitting.
There is simply more variability on the pitching side of the equation than on the hitting side. You can win a league with a $200 offense. I've done it and I've seen others do it. You will have a hard time winning if you spend over $100 on pitching, unless you're doing something radical like a Sweeney plan. It can be done, but you're competing with one hand tied behind your back.
The goal on offense is to accumulate and accumulate. The worst thing you can do is not accumulate. If you swing and miss on one hitter, you've got 13 other opportunities to keep accumulating. You want to avoid bad batting averages, but one bad BA hitter isn't going to sink your entire team.
On the pitching side, you're fighting a war on two fronts. You want to accumulate wins and saves (plus strikeouts or innings in 5x5), but you also want to keep your ERA and WHIP as low as possible. Not only that, but bad ERA/WHIP outings don't lead to wins, and really bad outings don't lead to too many strikeouts/innings.
As a result, you had 33 major league pitchers lose $10 or more in 4x4. This effect is dampened in 5x5, where only two pitchers lost $10 or more.
Granted, you're not going to carry a double-digits loser on your roster all year. But even one bad performance puts you in the hole, and most of us wait for at least two or three bad performances before we cut bait. And one bad ERA/WHIP pitcher can sink your team.
I'm not recommending spending $200 on your offense. But spending less on hitting is a far more of a rookie mistake than spending too much on hitting.
7 comments:
At the end of your article, you stated that 33 ML pitchers lost $10 in 4x4 but only 2 ML pitchers lost $10 in 5x5. Would you mind expanding on that a little? Our league changed to the 5x5 format this winter from 20 years in the 4x4 format and I'm interested in finding trends that are going to be new to me in valuing players. Thanks!
lfh-zeke,
I will do my best to get to this in a future post.
What I'd recommend doing ASAP as going to askrotoman.com and downloading the free Patton software. You can tinker with the $ values and see the differences between 4x4 and 5x5.
I'm sure Mike will explain it in full details, but the key is that the addition of strikeouts (as a positive value category) mitigates the negative impact of certain pitchers' ERA and Ratio. It also tempers the highest value hitters, since Runs are more normally distributed than HR and SB. The same goes for closers.
Two things:
(1) There are less pitchers losing $10 or more in 5x5 than 4x4 for a few reasons. As Eugene said, the addition of strikeouts as a category gives a pitcher that's throwing up a bad ERA/WHIP line in a given game a way to contribute positively beyond the outside chance of getting a W in a slugfest. I think the easiest way to see the difference between 5x5 and 4x4 in terms of pitcher value is to consider the individual influence of each category. In 5x5, rate stats (ERA, WHIP) make up 40% of your categories while accumulator stats (W, SV, K) make up 60% of your categories. In 4x4, rate stats and accumulator stats each make up 50% of your categories. Pitching rate stats simply constitute a lower percentage of your categories and your total possible points in 4x4 than 5x5. Consequently, the value of a pitcher who will contribute positively to your rate stats is higher in 4x4 than 5x5, while the value of a pitcher who will contibute negatively to your rate stats is lower in 4x4 than 5x5.
[Wow, I made that point very inefficiently. I should have been able to say that with half the word count.]
(2) The comparisons of average values of pitchers and hitters across leagues made me think of league stages. You've often mentioned Stage One leagues, Stage Two leagues, Stage Three leagues, etc. I don't know what these terms mean, and a (halfhearted and cursory) search on Google didn't provide any explanations. Could you define the stages, list their characteristics, and so on?
MikeG-
At the time of my comments I hadn't seen all of the positions, and based upon the catchers and infielders it definitely looked like prices were way to high in hitting. The beginner's league comment was with regard to so much overpaying for the "stars."
Looking at the prices for ARod, Cabrera, some of the top catchers, etc. I had to assume it continued through the outfield and not yet revealed positions. It turns out that the outfield, where there are a lot of much better than average producers came in under par and the balance came closer to normalizing.
It turns out that it could have been stolen bases that were undervalued, while HR were overvalued, since these were not auction experienced players. Sure, in a draft you want to take the "best player available." But, in an auction Ichiro's high BAvg ABs and steals and Figgins' steals have a certain relatively dollar value that was not properly valued.
The accumulators, many of whom you got (and that's why I praised your power totals) were undervalued too, especially in the outfield.
Just thought I'd mention, I'm the guy who scanned all those articles in. I'm glad I saved all those books all those years. Amazing that they're still useful even today.
And Peter's right; I was young. Once.
This comment might be better left in the explanation of the "stages," but it goes more to strategy and the $200 offense.
Now that we are all in Stage 3, it is becoming harder and harder to differentiate ourselves from our fellow owners. Mike and I noticed a few years ago that our sheets were getting closer and closer in terms of price, and I would say that several owners in our league are now in that same position.
What do you do, then, to differentiate yourself and compete? Well, some of us rely on blind luck (and I wish I had some). Auction strategy, however, is becoming more and more central, particularly in inflation keeper leagues. The $200 offense is becoming more and more common as teams blow off closer, or look to identify minor leaguers in their drafts or CIW in the endgame to act as cheap closers. The Sweeney is still out there, but I see it less and less because it is very difficult to do effectively.
The point is this: prices and profits are effective measuring sticks, but it is no longer that easy. Developing plans may force you to look more than one year in the future, but your auction strategy in Stage 3 leagues will make or break your season.
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