Fewer Hitters, More Pitchers

Back in 1998, when the National League shifted from 14 to 16 teams, the original Rotisserie League Baseball rules were changed to try and adjust to this new reality. The "preferred" composition of the N.L. went from 12 to 13 teams, the budget was shifted from $260 to $280, and a 24th player was added to the "standard" 14 hitter, nine pitcher team. According to the rules, this player could be either a hitter or a pitcher.

Outside of the original Dan Okrent Rotisserie League, I am not aware of any league that adopted these rules. LABR decided to add a 10th pitcher but keep the $260 budget intact.

rodger, one of my regular readers, told me that his league is adapting a different wrinkle along these lines.

perhaps you could comment about a new rules change my 12 team AL carryover league is about to approve. We're cutting an OFer and adding a pitcher to better reflect the reality of AL rosters.

rodger is referring to the fact that Major League rosters have changed historically over time to reflect the reality of starting pitchers who don't throw 280-300 IP a season and bullpens that pitch more and have more specialized roles. When Rotiserrie League baseball kicked off in 1980, Major League teams commonly carried 15 hitters and 10 pitchers. Today in the A.L. most teams go 13/12 on Opening Day, when starting pitchers are still going 5-6 innings at a time and bullpen arms are less likely to go multiple innings right out of the gate.

In the American League, that means that there are approximately 182 hitters and 168 pitchers available to buy at Opening Day auctions, not including disabled players. In a league with a 14 hitter/nine pitcher split, that means that we buy 92% of the available hitters (168 out of 182) but only 64% of the available pitchers (108 out of 168) league-wide.

What I've typically noticed is that this lends itself to more variability in pitching prices, particularly in the endgame. Hitters you may have listed for $3-5 on your sheet typically fall in around this price, give or take a dollar. A $3 hitter might go for $2, but seldom if ever goes for $1. Furthermore, these $3 hitters are almost always purchased. Even the $2 hitters are almost always snapped up as well.

Because 36% of the available pitching pool isn't purchased, there is much more variability in the pitching endgame. It isn't uncommon for pitcher you might have listed at $2-3 on your sheet to go unclaimed, and I've even seen auctions where a pitcher I have listed at $4 or even $5 sits in the free agent pool at the end of the auction. It makes sense. If I'm ranking the top 108 pitchers, there's a good chance that one or more of my pitchers on the bottom fourth of my list won't even be on an opponent's list. I might think Alan Embree is worth snagging for $3 because he was the back-up closer when Huston Street was out last year, but my rival, who already has J.J. Putz and Jon Papelbon frozen cheap, might not even bother listing Embree at $1.

If you shift the dynamic to 13 Roto hitters and 10 pitchers, your league will buy 156 hitters, or a mere 86% of the hitting pool. One hundred and twenty pitchers will be purchased, representing 71% of the pitchers available.

Now, more hitters that you have listed at $2-3 on your sheet might very well go unclaimed on Auction Day. There will still be variability on pitchers, but not quite so much. Consider the fact that some of the 12th pitchers on staffs are middle relief or long relief fodder who are highly unlikely to provide Roto value, and the variability at the bottom of the pile is even more limited.

I've noticed that when it comes to pitchers it makes more sense not to pay more than $2 for a middle reliever or $3-4 for a bottom-tier starting pitcher as a result of this variability. The bottom feeders are pretty similar, and it doesn't make sense to bid $5 or more on a pitcher who looks an awful lot like all of the flotsam and jetsam at the bottom of the pile. I've always prefered to do a mini-version of Stars & Scrubs with pitchers. Why pay $3 or $4 for someone like Andy Sonnanstine when I can get another bottom-tier starting pitcher for $1?

Even in 5x5 leagues, if every team bought five starting pitchers, that would leave 10 pitchers at the bottom of the pile who would go unclaimed. My worst 10 starting pitchers and your worst 10 will probably have some overlap, but it's highly unlikely we'd agree on all 10 of these guys.

With 12 more pitching slots to fill, though, more teams might try to corner the market on starting pitching to keep their opponents out of the wins and strikeout game. It would make your efforts in grabbing a five-man starting rotation that much harder. Pitching, as a result, should theoretically go for more money.

Pricing theory backs this idea up. The Patton valuation system was devised around the idea that hitters are worth 70% of the pie because they offer more quantitative statistics (HR, RBI, SB) than pitchers (Wins, Saves). Fourteen hitters improve your team quantitatively in three categories. Nine pitchers improve your team quantitatively in two categories. Your 14 hitters offer a total of 42 chances to move up in the standings. Your nine pitchers offer a mere 18 chances. 42/60 of your money - or 70% - should go to hitting. 18/60 of your money - or 30% - should go to pitching. This translates into $182 for hitters and $78 for pitchers per team.

Adding a pitcher and removing a hitter means that you should spend 39/59th of your money on hitting, or $172 per team. That leaves $88 for pitching. This slight shift in team rosters means that, in theory, you should spend $10 more on pitching.

As we all know, practice doesn't align with theory. Despite the fact that theory tells us we should spend $182 on hitting, leagues historically have never quite reached this level. Leagues have tended to stop at $175 per team, or about 67% on hitting.

(This may be changing. Last year, LABR-AL spent 69% of its money, or $179 per team, on hitting. Tout Wars - AL spent a shade over 70%, or $183 per team, on hitting. Granted, this might simply be a one-year anomaly. However, the CBS Sportsline expert auction that took place this team saw spending of $180 per team, or 69%, on hitting. The smart money might be recognizing the fact that pitching is unpredictable enough that the disparity between hitting and pitching dollars should be slightly wider.)

I would have to guess, rodger, that pitching prices will go up somewhat, since more teams will buy more players above $1. Other teams will try to corner the market in pitching, making for some interesting chases at the middle and the bottom of the pile. You might not want to adjust your bids up $10 per team and $120 for your entire league. But you will want to shift some of your auction money toward pitching just in case.