In yesterday's post, I noted that your five most expensive hitters will typically eat $85-100 of your budget. If you're sticking to a $175 hitting budget, that comes out to at least 50% of your budget, and possibly close to 60% of your budget. You have a lot riding on these hitters.
Top 10 Predicted AP N.L. Hitters 2007
| Rank | Player | AP$ | "Cost" | "Buyer" | 2006 | |||||
| 1 | Jose Reyes | $43 | $43 | AP |
| |||||
| 2 | Albert Pujols | $32 | $43 | PK/LABR/Tout | $44 | |||||
| 3 | Alfonso Soriano | $31 | $41 | Tout | $44 | |||||
| 4 | David Wright | $45 | $39 | LABR | $37 | |||||
| 5 | Miguel Cabrera | $33 | $37 | LABR | $37 | |||||
| 6 | Carlos Beltran | $33 | $36 | Tout | $35 | |||||
| 7 | Lance Berkman | $26 | $33 | PK/LABR | $39 | |||||
| 8 | Carlos Lee | $33 | $34 | LABR | $37 | |||||
| 9 | Derrek Lee | $26 | $33 | Tout | $10 | |||||
| 10 | Ryan Howard | $30 | $40 | LABR | $43 | |||||
| Average | $33 | $38 | $37 |
I've rigged these charts a little bit for this exercise. The "Cost" column has replaced Alex Patton's recommended bid limit (though these hitters are sorted by his top bid limits, since the assumption is those were the prices you were going into your auction with. The buyer column is a five-way, hypothetical battle between touts Alex (AP), Peter Kreutzer (PK - a.k.a Rotoman) and Sports Weekly (predictions by Rotoworld), as well as expert auctions LABR and Tout Wars.
The most surprising thing about this chart is that finally, after years of Alex telling them that they were skinflints, the expert owners have not only caught up to Alex's way of thinking, but they've lapped him. Alex only recommends paying more for Jose Reyes, while his colleague Kreutzer doesn't "outbid" anyone on a single player outright, tying the expert auctions on Pujols and Berkman. Sports Weekly's pricing is mysteriously quiet, not even tying on one of these players.
Nevertheless, the cost column is a spectacular illustration of what Stage Three is. The three experts and two auction leagues may disagree on what each player is worth, but the disagreement still results in a nearly perfect downward slope in pricing until you get to Ryan Howard. Patton might not think that Soriano, Wright or Cabrera are worth it at those prices, but Soriano is to Wright is to Cabrera for Patton what he is to these buyers.
The $64,000 question is: do the expensive hitters pay off?
Back when Patton was publishing books, this was always the question he posed about this group, even though he always spat back the same answer. I'm not going to change course with his opinion, because I don't disagree with him.
Yes, these hitters pay off. And, yes, that's counterintuitive.
On average, this group of hitters loses $5 per hitter. Obviously, losing money in a non-carryover league without inflation isn't a winning strategy. But buying stats is. And, here, you're buying $33 worth of stats per player.
If you've read Alex's books and my blog, this message is a broken record by now. But the worst hitter here earns $26! And is the 25th best hitter in the league!
Certainly, there's a little luck involved, in that injuries don't sabotage anyone like Derrek Lee was sabotaged in 2006. But this is a successful group.
This isn't to be confused with a profitable group. Only Wright makes money, and only Reyes breaks even. Pujols, Soriano and Howard lose double digits.
You're not paying for profits here, though. You're paying for stability.
Next 10 (11-20) Predicted AP N.L. Hitters 2007
| Rank | Player | AP$ | "Cost" | "Buyer" | 2006 |
| 11 | Jason Bay | $13 | $31 | Tout | $31 |
| 12 | Chase Utley | $32 | $37 | LABR | $35 |
| 13 | Hanley Ramirez | $50 | $33 | Tout | $37 |
| 14 | Jimmy Rollins | $42 | $34 | LABR | $34 |
| 15 | Matt Holliday | $44 | $36 | LABR | $38 |
| 16 | Juan Pierre | $34 | $29 | LABR | $34 |
| 17 | Aramis Ramirez | $25 | $32 | LABR | $30 |
| 18 | Ryan Zimmerman | $18 | $27 | AP | $26 |
| 19 | Rafael Furcal | $17 | $30 | LABR | $33 |
| 20 | Andruw Jones | $12 | $31 | LABR | $28 |
| Average | $29 | $32 | $33 |
This group of hitters earns 91 cents (29/32) on the dollar, versus the first group's 87 cents (33/38), so you would think that you want this group of hitters. However, even with the inclusion of three $40+ earners, this group fails to crack $30.
Check out Bay, Furcal, Jones and Zimmerman. Suddenly, you're not assured of a $26 hitter. This group feels more like playing the lottery. Spend $34 and you might wind up with a Jimmy Rollins, but spend $31 on Andruw Jones and suddenly you're not feeling quite so lucky.
The LABRites have completely shed their conservative label, buying seven of these 10 hitters in a five-price bidding war. If Patton doesn't buy Zimmerman, the touts are completely shut out. For those of you scoring at home, the touts have now only tied or won four of the top 20 players.
Next 10 (21-30) Predicted AP N.L. Hitters 2007
| Rank | Player | AP$ | "Cost" | "Buyer" | 2006 |
| 21 | Garrett Atkins | $26 | $33 | LABR | $35 |
| 22 | Bill Hall | $10 | $25 | AP | $24 |
| 23 | Carlos Delgado | $17 | $25 | LABR/Tout | $18 |
| 24 | Brian McCann | $15 | $24 | AP | $27 |
| 25 | Todd Helton | $23 | $23 | AP | $20 |
| 26 | Felipe Lopez | $13 | $24 | LABR | $28 |
| 27 | Chipper Jones | $33 | $24 | PK | $27 |
| 28 | Scott Rolen | $10 | $22 | AP/PK/Tout | $24 |
| 29 | Adam Dunn | $27 | $26 | SW | $20 |
| 30 | Prince Fielder | $33 | $28 | LABR | $21 |
| Average | $21 | $25 | $24 |
And now the touts come roaring back.
Particularly Patton. He comes in higher on Hall, McCann and Helton and ties on Rolen. Rotoman gets Jones and ties on Rolen, while Sports Weekly finally chimes in with what turns out to be a great call on Adam Dunn.
In terms of return, this group isn't much worse than the first two at 84% (21/25). The problem, though, is that you need stats and not just profits (or slight losses), and we can see which way the arrow is pointing.
We can also see how unstable this group is. Hall, Delgado, Lopez and Rolen are all big losers and, unlike the second group, the only big winner here is Chipper. If this were a real Roto auction, the touts would probably be kicking themselves for not buying players in the top 20.
Next 10 (31-40) Predicted AP N.L. Hitters 2007
| Rank | Player | AP$ | "Cost" | "Buyer" | 2006 |
| 31 | Morgan Ensberg | $4 | $21 | AP/Tout | $10 |
| 32 | Austin Kearns | $13 | $21 | AP/PK | $20 |
| 33 | Adam LaRoche | $17 | $22 | LABR | $23 |
| 34 | Adrian Gonzalez | $22 | $24 | LABR | $22 |
| 35 | Chad Tracy | $5 | $20 | AP/LABR/Tout | $19 |
| 36 | Jeff Francoeur | $23 | $24 | SW | $19 |
| 37 | Jacques Jones | $13 | $20 | PK | $24 |
| 38 | Dan Uggla | $15 | $21 | SW | $23 |
| 39 | Willy Taveras | $22 | $25 | Tout | $18 |
| 40 | Brad Hawpe | $25 | $21 | LABR | $22 |
| Average | $16 | $22 | $20 |
The returns diminish and diminish.
For the second time in a row, the predictors win or tie on six out of 10 players. But, for the fourth time in a row, earnings drop. By group, we've seen earnings on average of $33, $29, $21, $16.
Look at those dollar figures again. This group doesn't even earn half of what the first group earns, despite the fact that you're paying more than half for what that group got.
And I'll keep hammering this home: you need those stats from the first group more than you need these "earnings". There isn't a magic bullet somewhere that's going to hand you profits as you move down the line.
So far, including ties, the scorecard reads:
LABR: 21
Tout: 11
AP: 9
PK: 6
SW: 3
I might not like the way AP is spending his money, but at least he's spending it. What are PK and SW waiting for?
Next 10 (41-50) Predicted AP N.L. Hitters 2007
| Rank | Player | AP$ | "Cost" | "Buyer" | 2006 |
| 41 | Mike Cameron | $17 | $24 | LABR/Tout | $26 |
| 42 | Dave Roberts | $14 | $20 | LABR/Tout | $29 |
| 43 | Jeff Kent | $20 | $22 | SW | $11 |
| 44 | Pat Burrell | $18 | $20 | PK | $18 |
| 45 | Ryan Freel | $6 | $20 | PK/LABR | $21 |
| 46 | Barry Bonds | $19 | $19 | SW | $18 |
| 47 | Brandon Phillips | $36 | $20 | LABR | $25 |
| 48 | Richie Weeks | $14 | $21 | SW | $15 |
| 49 | Carlos Quentin | $1 | $18 | AP/LABR | $6 |
| 50 | Freddie Sanchez | $18 | $19 | PK | $25 |
| Average | $16 | $20 | $19 |
This group allows the losses to stop, but even Phillips's amazing year doesn't increase the earnings here.
Finally - finally! - Sports Weekly's prices seem to kick in to high gear and tell you that it's time to buy, buy, buy after holding back. Kent, Bonds and Weeks are all recommended strongly by the publication's prices and, as a group, they don't work out too badly. However, these are risky plays going into the season, and the fact that aging stars Kent and Bonds work out seems luckier than it does good. This reminds me of what optimal bidding would look like in a Stage Three league: players at prices that make you happy you got a bargain, but too much risk to make you feel good about said bargain.
One last group:
Next 10 (41-50) Predicted AP N.L. Hitters 2007
| Rank | Player | AP$ | "Cost" | "Buyer" | 2006 |
| 51 | Chris Burke | $4 | $18 | AP/Tout/SW | $12 |
| 52 | Edgar Renteria | $23 | $21 | Tout | $23 |
| 53 | Ray Durham | $7 | $17 | AP/PK | $25 |
| 54 | Edwin Encarnacion | $19 | $24 | Tout | $16 |
| 55 | Chris Young | $23 | $25 | Tout | $2 |
| 56 | Nomar Garciaparra | $11 | $17 | AP | $14 |
| 57 | Marcus Giles | $4 | $18 | PK/Tout | $13 |
| 58 | Stephen Drew | $8 | $17 | PK/LABR | $8 |
| 59 | Aaron Rowand | $27 | $18 | PK | $12 |
| 60 | Brian Giles | $11 | $19 | Tout/SW | $16 |
| Average | $14 | $19 | $14 |
And, as a group, the earnings continue to dwindle.
Once again, there are some strong earners here (Renteria, Young, Rowand). But is there any doubt that, as a group, the Top 10 predicted hitters are the best ones to chase?
Remember, if your league has five different pricing models like this, these prices aren't too far out of line with what you'll pay, give or take a buck or two one way or the other. You obviously can't buy all of these hitters (unless you're content with a $9 pitching staff), but you will probably buy four or five.
Buy at least one of the expensive ones.
They are the most reliable. The fluctuation from the best hitter (Wright) to the worst ones (Berkman and D. Lee) simply isn't going to break your season. You obviously want the $45 year from Wright, but you won't sneeze at the $26 year from Berkman.
Contrast that with the $33 Jones/Fielder earned versus the $10 Bill Hall earned. You can't win spending $25 on Bill Hall getting only $10 worth of stats. That $15 loss is a 40% ROI, while Ryan Howard's $10 loss still gives you 75 cents on the dollar (30/40).
I'll look at the A.L. next to see if this level of predictably is true over there.
No comments:
Post a Comment