Will the same hold true for the American League?
Top 10 Predicted A.L. Hitters 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | "Cost | "Buyer" | 2006 |
| 1 | Carl Crawford | $41 | $42 | Tout | $44 |
| 2 | Vladimir Guerrero | $33 | $38 | PK | $39 |
| 3 | Alex Rodriguez | $54 | $43 | Tout | $33 |
| 4 | Ichiro Suzuki | $40 | $34 | AP | $37 |
| 5 | Bobby Abreu | $29 | $32 | AP/PK | $32 |
| 6 | David Ortiz | $36 | $34 | LABR | $34 |
| 7 | Miguel Tejada | $20 | $31 | AP | $31 |
| 8 | Derek Jeter | $28 | $32 | LABR | $41 |
| 9 | Manny Ramirez | $20 | $32 | SW | $28 |
| 10 | Mark Teixeira | $12 | $30 | LABR/Tout/SW | $24 |
| Average | $31 | $35 | $34 |
For the most part, yes. In terms of coming close to what the three touts and two expert leagues pay, this group actually returns slightly more on the dollar than their N.L. counterparts.
On the other hand, the group earns less, which is possibly part of the reason why the A.L. touts and experts don't feel quite so generous with this group.
And yet where are the out and out bombs?
Sure, Manny and Tejada buyers certainly were disappointed. But they did also get back $20 worth of stats. Teixeira's obviously a bust, but he's not an injury bust; his loss of stats was due to a trade. In some leagues, his owners had the right to keep him for the rest of the year and Tex returned close to the $30 that two expert leagues and one tout shelled out.
The "buyer" column tells a much different story than it did for the Top 10 N.L. hitters. This is a fairly even distribution of players, with no single tout or expert auction buying less than two players or more than three.
From Ichiro down to Teixeira, check out once again how much the prices fall in a line, even though this chart is sorted by Alex's prices. This is Stage Three for you. There might be a difference of a dollar or two between the highest price and the second highest price from tout to tout, but the A-Rod bidding anomalies are typically the exception and not the rule.
Next 10 (11-20) Predicted A.L. Hitters 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | "Cost | "Buyer" | 2006 |
| 11 | Vernon Wells | $14 | $29 | AP/PK/SW | $33 |
| 12 | Travis Hafner | $19 | $34 | LABR | $30 |
| 13 | Grady Sizemore | $32 | $38 | LABR | $29 |
| 14 | Justin Morneau | $24 | $29 | Tout | $33 |
| 15 | Paul Konerko | $19 | $27 | PK | $29 |
| 16 | Joe Mauer | $14 | $27 | SW | $27 |
| 17 | Johnny Damon | $22 | $27 | Tout | $28 |
| 18 | Michael Young | $27 | $28 | LABR/SW | $25 |
| 19 | Carlos Guillen | $28 | $25 | PK | $31 |
| 20 | Brian Roberts | $35 | $25 | PK/LABR/Tout | $26 |
| Average | $23 | $29 | $29 |
Unlike their N.L. counterparts, this group comes a lot closer to what you'd expect, historically, from these types of hitters. They're cheaper, but they also earn a lot less. Guillen and Roberts save this group at the end and keep this clump of hitters from being even more of a disaster.
On this go-round, Patton is appropriately conservative, tying only on Vernon Wells but taking a pass on the rest of these hitters. There is once again no one "bidder" who is particularly aggressive. This has less to do with the auction vs. prediction format and more to do with just how much this market is infested with Stage Three-itis.
Sure, there's a little hiccup with Hafner and a huge one with Sizemore. But do you see any kind of serious variation in the "cost" column after these two hitters?
Alex's bid limits on these ten hitters are: $29, $28, $28, $28, $26, $26, $25, $25, $24, $24.
These aren't significant differences. The market is disagreeing with him, but its a polite quarrel over afternoon tea, not small arms fire at the OK Corral.
Next 10 (21-30) Predicted A.L. Hitters 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | "Cost | "Buyer" | 2006 |
| 21 | Jermaine Dye | $17 | $26 | LABR | $36 |
| 22 | Chone Figgins | $31 | $27 | LABR | $31 |
| 23 | Hideki Matsui | $24 | $28 | LABR | $7 |
| 24 | Rocco Baldelli | $1 | $24 | AP/PK | $18 |
| 25 | Corey Patterson | $23 | $24 | AP/PK | $31 |
| 26 | Delmon Young | $22 | $24 | AP | $4 |
| 27 | Alex Rios | $30 | $24 | AP/SW | $24 |
| 28 | Richie Sexson | $6 | $24 | SW | $20 |
| 29 | Jim Thome | $24 | $25 | SW | $26 |
| 30 | Torii Hunter | $32 | $24 | PK | $26 |
| Average | $21 | $25 | $22 |
This group of hitters earns back slightly more on the dollar (84%) than the second group (79%). But, once again, the overall earnings drop. $23 to $21 is a slight drop, but it is a drop nonetheless. If anything, the second group of hitters should probably take a more significant pay cut than this group.
Once again, there isn't any one tout or expert league cleaning up here (though Tout Wars is much less aggressive with this bunch). And, once again, the tout/expert league prices practically run on a line with Patton's prices - $24, $24, $24, $24, $24, $24, $24, $23, $23, $22 - for these hitters.
Next 10 (31-40) Predicted A.L. Hitters 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | "Cost | "Buyer" | 2006 |
| 31 | Magglio Ordonez | $43 | $22 | AP/PK | $22 |
| 32 | Victor Martinez | $26 | $24 | SW | $21 |
| 33 | Josh Barfield | $8 | $21 | AP/Tout | $21 |
| 34 | Robinson Cano | $25 | $22 | Tout/SW | $24 |
| 35 | Mike Piazza | $8 | $21 | AP | $16 |
| 36 | Gary Sheffield | $25 | $25 | SW | $8 |
| 37 | Raul Ibanez | $22 | $20 | AP | $26 |
| 38 | Mark Teahen | $16 | $20 | AP | $19 |
| 39 | Nick Swisher | $16 | $24 | Tout | $18 |
| 40 | Nick Markakis | $33 | $20 | Tout/SW | $14 |
| Average | $22 | $22 | $19 |
This is the kind of chart that makes you ask whether or not you'd be better off with this group of hitters than the 10 Most Expensive hitters.
This grouping provides an even money return on their investment, which is next to impossible when you're using the highest price of five (like I've been doing) as opposed to using an average (like Patton used to do in his books). Obviously, a lot of that is Magglio, but he was going to do that in whichever group he wound up in.
My intuition tells me that you still want to pursue the best hitters more aggressively. Magglio and Markakis are offset by Barfield and Piazza. The 2006 column is perhaps even a better indicator of why you don't want to become too enamored with this strata of hitters. Even the third grouping had three hitters who earned $30 or more in 2006. This group, on the other hand, doesn't have a single hitter who cracked $30 in 2006. We're paying $20+ because the potential for reward is high, but we're stopping in at $20 or juts above because we can see the risk, too. Raul Ibanez earned $26 in 2006, but everyone thinks he played over his head, and the range of prices is $17-20. Everyone wants a profit from this kind of hitter, and they certainly refuse to take too much of a loss if he tanks.
I noted that Tout Wars took a pass on the third grouping of hitters. Here, LABR is conservative. There's nothing wrong with this type of conservatism, but in the N.L. both LABR and Tout Wars were aggressive with the best hitters, while in the A.L. auction they hang back. I'd guess that both expert leagues are going to be chasing lesser hitters in the middle of the day or at the veyr end because they're leaving a little too much money on the table.
Next 10 (41-50) Predicted A.L. Hitters 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | "Cost | "Buyer" | 2006 |
| 41 | Lyle Overbay | $5 | $24 | LABR | $24 |
| 42 | Frank Thomas | $20 | $18 | AP | $23 |
| 43 | Jason Giambi | $7 | $19 | SW | $21 |
| 44 | Adrian Beltre | $27 | $22 | LABR | $20 |
| 45 | Ian Kinsler | $22 | $20 | PK/LABR/Tout | $16 |
| 46 | J.D. Drew | $12 | $21 | SW | $20 |
| 47 | Kenji Johjima | $14 | $17 | AP | $17 |
| 48 | Mike Cuddyer | $17 | $21 | LABR/SW | $23 |
| 49 | Alex Gordon | $14 | $19 | Tout | |
| 50 | Scott Podsednik | $5 | $21 | PK | $21 |
| Average | $14 | $20 | $19 |
Here not only do the average hitter earnings fall but they plummet, with a very poor return of 70 cents on the dollar. And, once again, there isn't a single tout or expert league that dominates within the group.
On the whole, the 2006 column is a far more predictable barometer than any of the tout guesses. That's because the touts are trying to predict $3120 worth of value and the expert leagues are trying to spend $3120 of their funny money. 2006, on the other hand, tells it like it was. This is a stable group of hitters, earning between $16-24 in 2006 (excluding Gordon). But this stability underscores the fact that, once you get down to this level, you're unlikely to have someone bust out and suddenly earn $30 or more. You're more likely to be disappointed than surprised, and that's what happens for the most part.
If I expanded the columns to show every prediction, you would start to see some of the gaps now between each tout. There's a $9 gap between Patton's Piazza call and Rotoman's $12 call. Tout Wars says $19 on Gordon, while Sports Weekly tells you to stop at $12. As the bid limits get lower, these gaps are much more significant in terms of the percentage difference between bids. The subtext here is that you're saying with a $12 bid limit on Gordon or Piazza that you're not interested in owning either player. Your money is being saved for someone better.
That is, if you've distributed your pre-auction bid limits correctly.
Next 10 (51-60) Predicted A.L. Hitters 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | "Cost | "Buyer" | 2006 |
| 51 | Julio Lugo | $18 | $22 | LABR | $19 |
| 52 | Orlando Cabrera | $26 | $20 | Tout | $23 |
| 53 | Troy Glaus | $13 | $20 | LABR/SW | $20 |
| 54 | Melvin Mora | $15 | $18 | PK | $18 |
| 55 | Ivan Rodriguez | $13 | $18 | SW | $18 |
| 56 | Tadahito Iguchi | $7 | $19 | SW | $18 |
| 57 | Eric Chavez | $9 | $21 | SW | $10 |
| 58 | Aubrey Huff | $15 | $21 | Tout | $13 |
| 59 | Gary Matthews Jr. | $19 | $15 | AP/PK/Tout | $25 |
| 60 | Joe Crede | $1 | $19 | LABR | $20 |
| Average | $14 | $19 | $18 |
Now it's Patton's turn to take a rest.
In this type of exercise, it's almost more about distribution of money than a matter of how any given tout feels about a specific player. Sports Weekly wasn't particularly conservative early, so I'd suspect that their bottom feeders should be heavy on $1 bids.
But now you can see both Tout Wars and LABR beginning to spend their money. Gee, I felt bad about getting Crede in an inflation auction for $14; I can only wonder how crummy Greg Ambrosius felt getting him for $19 in LABR. Huff $21, Lugo $22, Glaus $20...is this why LABR and Tout held back a little bit compared to in their N.L. auctions?
At least we can see that, in the A.L., there is a more even distribution of bids across the top few tiers of hitters.
AP: 16
PK: 14
LABR: 17
Tout: 14
SW: 19
Ties make this list add up to more than 60.
It's easier to discuss who had the "better" bid limits when everyone is picking up players across the board. If someone had 30 or more high bids, you would wonder if a team could fill out its roster using these bid limits without getting stuck in dollar derby far too early. If someone had 10 or less of these high bids, you would expect a player using that expert's prices to get stuck bidding $15 on Marco Scutaro at the end of the day.
The tighter differences of opinion in the American League make your job as an A.L.-only owner that much tougher on Auction Day. Chances are you're walking in with the same or nearly identical prices as the doofus who simply picked up Sports Weekly's '08 Fantasy Extra and eyeballed the prices on the way in to your auction.
In this situation, pricing alone isn't going to be enough. You're in Stage 3 hell, and you're going to need strategy in tandem with pricing to win. It's useful to know that the more expensive players provide a better return on your investment, but you and everyone else know that by now. To win, you're going to need to not only buy players at the right value, but you're going to need to build your team using the right methods.
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