2007 Expert Draft Recap

I haven't been writing much about the expert league that I've participated in the last four years. It didn't go well this year, for the second year in a row. Rather than make a number of lame excuses for my failings, I think it's better simply to point out my mistakes so that I (and you) can learn from them.

I should point out that part of the reason I haven't written much about this league is because it's a straight draft league and not an auction-style league. If you want more coverage on this league next year, by all means let me know in the comments section.

Don't draft Chris Carpenter in the 1st round. Jonathan Gangi at Rotoworld talked in multiple columns this year about why you shouldn't draft pitchers early. I typically agree with that advice, but had the 11th pick in a windshield wiper draft and knew I'd be picking again three picks later and would have a shot at another hitter.

Part of the problem with drafting Carpenter wasn't just Carpenter, but some of the decisions I made down the line as a result. I figured that Carpenter allowed me to pick up some mediocre inning eaters later in the draft, and as a result my staff included the likes of Chuck James, Jon Lieber, Livan Hernandez and Doug Davis. None of them truly blew up, but not having Carpenter and his $30+ earnings anchoring the staff meant that one of them would have had to have stepped up and been an ace pitcher. I knew going in that none of them were good bets to do this.

Don't draft closers early. This is where my auction background hurt me. I'm used to bidding, price enforcing, calling out players I don't want early and all of the other typical strategies experienced owners use in auctions. In an auction, I would call out guys like Billy Wagner and Tom Gordon early and let the money fly off the table. Instead, I wound up with both of them on my team. Wagner was fine while Gordon was a bust, but even if both had excelled I still put myself behind the eight-ball for the rest of the day on offense: a poor move that would lead to a watery squad with more holes than production.

In the N.L., draft players who steal bases and hit home runs. There was nothing wrong with drafting Carlos Lee in Round 2 and Chipper Jones in Round 4. They both produced and were solid picks at that point in the draft. Both were Top 15 earners among N.L. hitters; getting Jones at that point in particular was a relative steal.

Despite this, I would have been better off early with players with the potential to steal bases and hit home runs. I didn't know Jimmy Rollins was going to hit 30 HR, but 20 would have been a good guess, and I would have had a good portion of Lee's production plus a lot of SB. That would have saved me from drafting guys I didn't like such as Omar Vizquel and Dave Roberts later on because I had to have the steals.

When in doubt, go younger. Toward the middle of the draft, as I started getting to the point where I needed to fill in my offense, I picked up a number of older players, figuring that they'd start and, therefore, give me reliable production. As a result, I wound up with a team of guys like Adam Kennedy, Terrmel Sledge, Gabe Gross, Craig Wilson and Cesar Izturis filling in holes at the back end of my roster. Kennedy was simply a bust, but the rest of these guys were risky fliers who had a poor track record to begin with. Worse, I suspected that these picks were iffy when I made them.

It's one thing to pick a vet who you clearly believe is going to produce. It's another entirely to go with a vet you have a lukewarm feeling on. If you are in a draft and have that lukewarm feeling, go with a young player with upside. Your chance at a higher ROI is much, much greater.