A.L. FAAB Log: September 24, 2007

Russ Adams $31. Other bids: $3, $2.
It's fun to watch how oodles of FAAB get allocated in the last week of the season. The standard advice is that you should spend your FAAB early so you don't wind up blowing $31 on someone like Russ Adams. In keeper leagues, though, the top teams typically fill their rosters through trades and, barring injuries, don't need to spend all of their FAAB if things go right. Adams replaces Manny Ramirez, so this isn't an optimal outcome for this particular contender. As far as plays for this week go, Adams was as good a guess as any to contribute and provide AB and, hopefully, RBI. His best case scenario future now lies as a super-sub, which is probably why the Jays are playing him at 3B exclusively; they know he can handle the middle infield positions.

Yorman Bazardo $13.
Bazardo is currently penciled in as the starter tomorrow against the Twins, so this is a weak line-up play in hopes of a cheap win. Like Jair Jurrjens before him, Bazardo was a low-strikeout control artist in the minors, so there's no guarantee of future success based on his lone start nine days ago against Minnesota. I wouldn't recommend Bazardo, but there isn't a starter in my league's free agent pool I would have recommended this week. If you're scrambling for wins, Bazardo's as good a guess as any right now.

Andy Sonnanstine $10.
Sonnanstine is a next-year play by the winning bidder here. Everyone raves about how Sonnanstine is successfully throwing the change-up James Shields taught him, but Sonnanstine is going to need another pitch, or more movement on the pitches he already has, to be successful. Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis and Jake McGee are all going to be pushing the back end of this rotation hard by the middle of next year. While I think Edwin Jackson is obviously at far greater risk, Sonnanstine risks becoming trade bait or AAA filler if he doesn't show additional improvement. I know the ratio indicates his ERA should be better, but what I'm saying is don't buy any of the (limited) hype here.

George Sherrill $7. Other bid $2.
Brian Wolfe $7. Other bid $2.
Darren Oliver $7. Other bid $2.
Brian Tallet $7. Other bid $2.
This play was made to save ERA/Ratio and recognize the fact that an additional move up in Wins simply wasn't possible. It's certainly possible that any of these relievers could pick up a garbage win or save in the last week, but the idea was to protect this team's ERA/WHIP as much as possible. The team that acquired these relievers is currently has a 1.3181 WHIP to the next team's 1.3183. It gets even better, though, as the team with the better WHIP is in first overall and the other team is in second overall. A flip in this category is a two-point swing, leaving the first place team with a one point lead. These are the kind of races within the races that make Roto so exciting. As a footnote, it was the 2nd place team that put in all of those $2 bids.

Curtis Thigpen $5.
I'm not sure if or where Thigpen fits in to the Blue Jays 2008 blueprint, but he will start almost exclusively this week with Lyle Overbay being officially shut down today. Based on his hitting so far, he is going to have to make it as a catcher, since he hasn't shown enough at the dish to serve as a major league first baseman. At $10 next year, he's almost definitely not a freeze, and I'd be wary of freezing him at $10 even if the Jays hand him a job on Opening Day.

Travis Metcalf $2.
Metcalf is similar to Thigpen, insomuch as he was a solid college hitter whose bat hasn't transitioned well to professional ball. Unlike Thigpen, Metcalf had a pretty good window to establish himself in the majors this year, but it looks like he's not going to cut it as a starter. Yeah, that's a harsh indictment of a 25-year old after 146 major league AB, but that's how tough this game is. Like Thigpen, though, Metcalf is a decent enough play for the last week; it looks like Hank Blalock won't be doing more than DHing for the rest of the season.

Jensen Lewis $2.
This guy kind of snuck up on me, but I noticed that he's quietly put up a solid nine innings this month, with a 1.00 ERA, 11 whiffs, and a .129 BA against. Yes, that's a pathetically small sample size, but it's earned Lewis a shot at higher leverage situations for Cleveland, and a look next year as a possible middle reliever. I couldn't find an up-to-date scouting report on him. The last I had heard, Lewis was throwing 88-90 MPH, but this was as a starter. If he's added velocity as a reliever, then he's got a good chance of becoming a fixture in the majors, as he's got a good change and an OK slider.

Alan Embree. Claimed by 11th place team.
This is a puzzling claim to me by a non-contender. Embree has fallen apart this month, posting a 7.11 ERA and a .320 BA against. He's not being used in vulture situations by the A's, so his value is near worthless this week. Next year, I'm sure the A's are hoping that Huston Street is healthy, and they'll probably try to push some younger pitchers into the set-up role should Street get hurt again. Hats off to Embree for a fine year this season, but I wouldn't bet on him doing it again at the age of 38 and based on past performance.

Reed Johnson. Claimed by 9th place team.
Johnson's waiver salary is $3, so he's a freeze if he's a starter somewhere next year. The bad news is that he's put up a 611 OPS this year, and his 869 OPS last year isn't in line with any of his previous career numbers. His low BB/high SO totals don't speak to someone who has the "ability" to hit .300. There's a good chance he'll get non-tendered by Toronto. All those negative aside, Johnson is another guy who will probably play this week.

Gary Matthews Jr. Claimed by 6th place team.
Matthews was waived last week when it was unclear if or when he'd be back this year. He came back this weekend, so he's obviously a great play for the last week of the season, though it's unclear how much he'll run coming off his injury and with the Angels assured of a play-off berth.

Mike Napoli. Claimed by 5th place team.
If kept, Mike Napoli would be a $10 catcher in the last year of his Roto contract. Let's forget for a second whether or not Napoli is worth keeping at $10 and look at the seven Roto teams that passed on claiming Napoli and the catchers that they currently have.

12th: J.R. House ($10 salary next year), Jason LaRue ($2). No waiver claim
11th: Dioner Navarro ($5), Kurt Suzuki ($10). Embree claimed.
10th: Gregg Zaun ($1), Paul Bako ($10). No claim.
9th: John Buck ($3), Kelly Shoppach ($2). Re. Johnson claimed.
8th: Gerald Laird ($6), Mike Rabelo ($10). No claim.
7th: Jose Molina ($2), Mike Redmond ($2).
6th: Kenji Johjima ($19), Ramon Hernandez ($16). Matthews claimed.

I can give a pass to the 11th, 9th and 6th place teams. You could argue that Napoli is six of one and Suzuki is a half dozen of the other. I'm not a huge Shoppach fan, but maybe he's a starter somewhere next year at $2. The 6th place team is playing for the money, so he gets a pass.

I'm not saying Mike Napoli's even a keep. I'm saying that he might be, or someone else might think he is (he was kept at $10 this year), and you have to pounce on players like this when you're out of contention. Unless your league sucks, you're not going to get a $10 Gary Sheffield on the waiver wire. It's the Napolis of the world you have to be vigilant about.

Joey Gathright. Claimed by 2nd place team.
There was a lot of hype about Gathright being a different player when he came back to the majors, but he seems to have regressed back into the poor BB/AB player he's been in every other go-round he's had in the majors. That doesn't mean he doesn't deserve a chance, but this isn't track and field. Gathright has to improve as a hitter or he won't deserve a job. He's a fine steals play in the last week, but who knows what Buddy Bell will do in his final week as Royals manager? Craig Brazell and Justin Huber should be playing once in a while, and they're riding the pine.

Doug Mientkiewicz. Claimed by 1st place team.
Mientkiewicz isn't much of an option, but he'll probably get AB this week with Giambi ailing and the Yankees having all but clinched a play-off spot. This is an RBI play and, given what else was out in the free agent pool, probably one of the stronger ones that could have been made.