Monday, September 24, 2007

N.L. FAAB Log: September 24, 2007

Jared Burton $6.
A Rule V pick from the A's, Burton looks like a solid middle reliever who could get a couple of saves in the last week of the season if the Reds want to rest David Weathers. Burton's a two-pitch pitcher, but both his fastball and curve are plus pitches. The scouting report says he's supposed to be murder on righties due to a low-angle delivery, but it's his numbers against lefties (.135 BA against) that are eye-popping. He probably won't be in the Cincy closer mix next year, but this isn't a bad end of the year flier move just in case.

Jayson Werth $2.
Phillies fans were probably expecting this guy to hit a bunch of HR due to his previous power and CBP's cozy dimensions, but Werth's value this year has been in taking ball four. The result is a strong 865 OPS, making him a solid corner outfielder, but this hasn't translated to a lot of Roto value. Shane Victorino is still gimpy, though, so Werth should get plenty of playing time in the last week, even if the Phillies are eliminated.

Justin Towles $1. Other bid $1.
It looks like Justin Towles will get a clean shot at the Astros starting job behind the plate in Spring Training next year. He's touted as an awesome power catching prospect, but the sample size in the minors is very, very small, and Towles has all of 259 AB at Double-A or higher to his credit. Projecting what a player like this might do given a clean shot is tough. Towles could hit 20-25 HR with a .280 average, but he also could flame out in April and wind up in AAA in May. His defense is improving, though, so Towles is definitely worth watching if he plays winter ball.

Derrick Turnbow $1.
Francisco Cordero is a free agent after the season, and Doug Melvin doesn't seem like the kind of guy who is going to pay Cordero closer money when he's got a solid (and cheaper) option in-house like Turnbow. Forget the ERA; Turnbow has put together a year that rivals 2005 with the exception of the walks. If I were playing for next year in the N.L., I would have made sure to have stashed Turnbow away much earlier than the last week of the year. Maybe Milwaukee will go with someone else in 2008, but cheap closers are a huge component of what wins leagues.

Cody Ross $1. Other bid $1.
Ross has put up some incredible numbers this year in a limited number of AB. He's day-to-day with a strained hammy, so this pick is a roll of the dice. He'll need a trade to get an opportunity to start; the Marlins are committed to Jeremy Hermida and Josh Willingham, and although Ross did play 36 games in center field this year, I'm not convinced the Marlins are sold on him defensively there.

Nyjer Morgan $1.
Morgan's been an adequate fill-in for the Pirates with Chris Duffy out, but he's really more of a 5th OF. He doesn't get on base enough to utilize his speed, and he has not done enough with the bat otherwise to make sense as a long term solution as a starter. Morgan is a 27-year old career minor leaguer. It'd be a nice story if he made it as a back-up, but don't expect much else.

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