Friday, I wrote the cautionary tale about waiting too long to play for next year. Tonight (before I write what should be a very interesting N.L. FAAB review) I'll talk about waiting too long to play for this year.
In theory, this should be impossible, especially in carryover leagues. In experienced carryover leagues, the teams in contention are sharks, sniffing blood on the water before the swimmer even sets foot in the ocean. Part of winning in retention leagues, in fact, is searching for opportunities and keeping your finger on the pulse of every other team in the league.
Bemoaning the fact that the guy in 6th place is dumping far too early is a waste of time. What's worse is that you should have known this as soon as he did. In other words, the lines of communication should always be open. If you're upset because another shark got to your guppy first, then you don't understand how this game is really played.
And that's exactly what happened this year. I was off to a fast start - 10 points ahead of the second place team, who was 10 1/2 points ahead of the guy in 3rd. But it was also May 14, a time of year where the standings fluctuate crazily, and a lot of points can be won or lost even during a single day's time.
The guy in 6th was only 2 1/2 points out of third but pretty far behind the first and second place teams. Then Roy Halladay went on the DL with a burst appendix and everything changed. Suddenly, he didn't think he had a shot this year. Suddenly, he was talking pretty openly about dumping.
When the guy in 12th talks about dumping, it's certainly interesting. However, the team at the bottom usually has less to trade - that's why he's at the bottom! He might have a high priced superstar or two but, in cap leagues, these players push you toward your cap limit pretty quickly.
Now the guys in the middle, that's another story. Typically, their teams are more balanced, and thus can help a contender a lot more. The problem is that these guys often wait until late June or early July to see if their hitters can get hot, if they can get lucky through FAAB on a pitcher, or if they can stumble into another owner on a bad day who'll make a terrible trade. When these guys in the middle decide to pack it in on May 15, you pay attention.
I didn't think I had a shot at any of this owner's goods. I had a cheap James Shields at $3, who was over performing but still a decent freeze, and a $12 Mark Teahen, who looked good but not great at that price. Otherwise, I had a couple of slightly undervalued players, but nothing incredible to throw in a dump trade.
The team in second acted quickly and moved Huston Street ($11) and Billy Butler ($10) and Evan Longoria (farm) for David Ortiz, Dan Haren, Todd Jones and Michael Cuddyer. That left A.J. Burnett, Halladay, Mark Teixeira, Troy Glaus and Hideki Matsui. I was sure that I might wind up with one of those guys in a lesser deal (perhaps for Cameron Maybin or Matt Garza), maybe two if I got lucky. I didn't think Shields and Teahen would net me all five.
But that's exactly what happened! Another owner was also loaded with futures. In particular, he had B.J. Upton ($10) and Chien Ming-Wang ($4). The guy dumping told me flat out that he'd move the rest of those guys for Upton and Wang in a heartbeat. And I told him flat out, "if you can make that deal, you have to do it."
The owner with Upton and Wang said they were untouchable. In the process, he might have won me a title this year.
Flash forward to our league's trade deadline. The Upton/Wang team is now in 3rd place, but the same teams that were in 1st and 2nd are entrenched, with a 19 and 15 1/2 point lead on the 3rd place team. In other words, barring a miracle, he will finish in third. Yet that didn't stop him for moving Upton and Wang for Magglio Ordonez, Joe Mauer, Mark Grudzielanek and Brian Bannister.
Not a bad deal, you might say. I'd agree, except for the fact that having Halladay/Matsui/Teixeira/Burnett/Glaus for an additional 2+ months would have been better. Yes, hindsight tells you that Teixeira's a bust, Glaus a disappointment and Burnett an injury waiting to happen. But, at the time, no one else was close to ready to playing for 2008. Risky or no, you have to take the opportunities when they come to you.
But not on August 1. I would have stood pat with Upton and Wang and waited for 2008. This team still has some OK freezes in the can, but he's that much weaker. And the best he'll probably do is finish third, barring not one but two epic collapses.
Jump into the trading pool with both feet, particularly in carryover leagues. You're playing for first every day of the year until you're not, in which case you better be playing for 2008. You might not agree with the decision of the sixth place owner who packed it in on May 15, but you have to respect him for making that decision instead of flopping around indecisively and doing nothing.
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