I'm in the fortunate position of being in contention, so my goal has been pretty simple and obvious all season long. It's also a tough year to be a non-contender, as two teams packed it in very early, forcing a number of teams to also decide if they were going to play for the money or just throw in the towel and wait until 2008.
As the deadline approached, it became obvious that the wait-and-see approach wasn't a good idea. In a 12-team league, you had:
- three teams clearly playing for this year
- four teams playing for next year that had already unloaded all or most of their expensive players
- three teams that still had some or all of their expensive or option year players
- one team that was in fourth place who is our league's "mystery owner" - he rarely communicates with anyone.
- one team in fifth that was playing both sides of the fence right up until deadline day.
In an environment like this, one immediate problem comes to the fore. The three teams playing for this year were all at or near the league's $375 salary cap. Making any additional dump trades would have required additional fine tuning, and those trades are easier to conceptualize than they are to actually make.
One of the three contenders did manage to move an expensive Julio Lugo ($24) to a non-contender, which allowed him to make one final dump deal with a one of the four teams that still had a lot to offer. An hour later, I hit up this same guy to fill in for recently departed Mark Teixeira and Luis Castillo. That left a marketplace with two teams that badly needed to unload their this year players, three contenders that were completely capped out, and two teams that might or might not be playing for this year.
As I suspected, the team in fourth did virtually nothing. He made a straight up this-year-for-this-year trade with another contender, but otherwise was quiet. That left an ugly series of negotiations for the team in 5th place with the two non-contenders.
What makes this even worse is that the two non-contenders in question have been at the bottom of the standings all season long. One of these teams has been floating around with 25 points or less since May and the other team has been stuck in the 30s until the last week or so. I would argue that, at the very least, a few straight up deals early might have made a difference.
In the end, each of these teams made a trade with the 5th place team. The moves smacked of futility on both sides. The team in 5th is about 25 points out of first, and is near last in ERA and WHIP. It's too late during this time of year to dig out of a hole in these categories, and I can't see him finishing with more than 65 points overall. He's got Chone Figgins ($12) and Felix Hernandez ($15) in the last year of their contracts next year, but his freeze list is otherwise very thin. However, given what he gave up in next year talent, he didn't lose any additional ground, at least.
In one trade, he traded the team stuck in the 30s Nate Robertson at $1 and Marlon Byrd at $10 for Bobby Abreu and Tim Wakefield. In the other trade, he gave the cellar dweller Jacoby Ellsbury and Tom Mastny for Joe Nathan and Curt Schilling.
Jacoby Ellsbury would have to be Babe Ruth in order to have the kind of impact this team is going to need to contend. Nate Robertson at $1 isn't a much better haul.
The teams that are in the best shape for next year are the three squads that packed it in early. Two of these three squads were middle of the pack teams when they decided to give up, but that only means that they had a solid core of players to begin with and added even more talent as the season went on. These trades should have served as a huge warning flag to the teams at the bottom that it was time to get something - anything - for what they had. The guy in last, in particular, was left with a gaggle of expensive or option year players that he could have moved earlier and received value for.
You never want to be on a three-year plan, but it's even worse to create this reality based on your own inaction. Follow the trade winds of your league closely. It's never a good time to give up emotionally, but would you rather have just one year be a lost year, or would you prefer to have a series of seasons that are lost due to indecision and lack of movement?
2 comments:
What I find most interesting about roto is the intellectual and analytical depth which can be applied to what appears a simple game. Not everyone applies this level of analysis, of course, but those of you reading this blog certainly can and do.
Playing for next year may be, aside from draft preparation, the most intensely analytical portion of the season (though, this year, being in competition with Mike for first, this year has been the main focus). Dump too early in the wrong market and you do not get enough return, though you will get quality players. Dump too late (as happened to two people this year) and you get barely anything, and as Mike said, you are now on the three year plan.
Over the coming days, Mike and I will be collecting our thoughts on our respective plays for this year, the people who played for next year, and cap management at the deadline. Hopefully, we'll be engaging in a conversation on the issues, and we welcome you to chime in with comments and questions.
this year in my AL-only league we just didn't have that chain reaction of trades--the first dump trade usually elicits a frenzy of action as everyone tries to get theirs (for this year or next). A combination of too many teams in contention and absentee owners in the cellar i guess. now the dumpees have little to offer the dumpers and vice versa. plus the trade deadline was a bit anticlimactic, no?
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