Monday, August 20, 2007

N.L. FAAB Log: August 20, 2007

Shea Hillenbrand $20. Other bids: $3, $3.
Yes, Shea Hillenbrand is a fundamentally bad baseball player. But opportunity knocks while Nomar Garciaparra is on the DL, and Hillenbrand could pop the odd HR and drive in the occasional run here and there while Nomar is out. If you're in an OBP league, forget it. Hillenbrand walks less than those happy old people zipping around in their Little Rascals in those strangely hypnotic commercials.

Wily Mo Pena $6. Other bids: $5, $4, $1.
It's appropriate that Pena and Hillenbrand are grouped together, since Pena's another guy who laughs out loud whenever he hears George Carlin's old bit on how stupid Walking magazine is. However, Pena should get a pretty decent amount of AB the rest of the way while the Nationals try to decide what his role is in 2008. He's got a lot more pop than Hillenbrand, and could hit a bushel of HR, even in RFK.

Joel Pineiro $2. Other bids: $1, $1, $1.
Pineiro's had two spectacular outings, but I can see why even N.L.-only players who don't know him all that well would be reluctant. I'd like to see more than two strong starts before I start proclaiming the miracle of Dave Duncan, but in Pineiro's favor is a schedule that features almost nothing but soft N.L. Central opponents from here on out for the Cardinals. He's still a risk to revert back to his mediocre form, but you have to roll the dice if you're gunning for first; there might not be a better play from here on out in the N.L. free agent pool.

Jeff Keppinger $1.
Incredible batting average but not much else right now. Keppinger is a former non-prospect who got a little play with the Royals and Mets and is now the beneficiary of additional time with Alex Gonzalez on the DL. Tip of the hat for his BA so far (as well as his .368 BA at Triple-A and his incredible 430 OBP in the majors to date), but Keppinger is still a subpar option long-term.

Dan Ortmeier $1.
The Giants are rotating their bench players into the line-up more and more as the season winds down, so Ortmeier could see 3-4 starts a week down the stretch in a best case scenario. He's got power, but the MLE of his minor league average this year is probably .220, and he'll start seeing more junk as pitchers get hep to his rep. On the other hand, Ortmeier is the kind of guy who could hit a bunch of HR in September facing the same pitchers he was facing in AAA.

Luis Ayala $1.
Nice ERA/WHIP, though Ayala's value is limited since the Nationals didn't trade either Chad Cordero or Jon Rauch. It's worth watching to see what they do with these guys in the off-season; Ayala might be a good guy to stash away and see if his role increases due to a trade.

Ubaldo Jimenez $1. Other bid $1.
After two lousy starts against the Braves and Cubs, Jimenez bounced back in a big way at Petco. I'd avoid him if I were contending. The K/IP is great, but he looks like he'll suffer like a lot of young pitchers do due to lapses in concentration and fall victim to the big inning. Long term, he's intriguing, though I'd like to see him get another half a season in AAA. Then again, that could be said of a lot of pitchers.

Josh Phelps $1.
He's only worth it in leagues with one-game eligibility at catcher. In that case, his pop combined with a lack of AB in which he can do too much damage to your batting average makes him a serviceable second catcher.

Woody Williams $1.
He's a solid option this week with a start against the Nationals. Otherwise, you're playing with fire here; three quality starts in a row doesn't change the fact that there isn't a lot of gas left in Williams's tank. Even if you are the gambling type, I strongly recommend dumping or reserving Williams before the Astros get to Shea Stadium on September 7.

Elizardo Ramirez $1.
A start against the Braves at Great American isn't exactly a recipe for success. Ramirez beat the Brewers in his first start back in 2007, but everyone's beating the Brewers these days.

Kip Wells $1.
Wells's ERA is a huge turn-off, but his numbers so far are comparable to his numbers in 2004, when he put up an ERA of 4.55. In other words, Wells won't save your season, but he could be a serviceable pitcher the rest of the way. He's got a 3.63 ERA since the All-Star break and, more importantly, has only allowed 2 HR after allowing 12 in the first half.

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