Monday, August 20, 2007

A.L. FAAB Log: August 20, 2007

Asdrubal Cabrera $15. Other bids $7, $7, $5, $1.
Cabrera's a mixed bag in terms of what to expect. His overall minor league numbers tell me that he isn't ready, but the fact that he was promoted to Triple-A at the age of 19, spent a full year there at the age of 20, and is now in the majors as a 21-year old tells me that he has the potential to be a star long term. Short-term, Cabrera projects more as a mid-level A.L. only option if he continues to get regular at-bats over Josh Barfield. As long as Cabrera stays hot, that will happen, but be aware that Barfield could still get 2-4 starts a week depending on match-ups. Cabrera's a risky move for this year, but a worthwhile play if you've got a stiff at MI.

Kevin Millwood $12. Other bid $4.
What I wrote about Kip Wells yesterday applies to Millwood in the A.L. Don't expect great things from Millwood, but he does have a 4.00 ERA and only 1 HR allowed in 45 IP post All-Star break. The ugly half of that is a 1.511 WHIP fueled by a poor BB/IP rate. Realistically, you're probably looking at a 4.50 ERA/1.45 WHIP from Millwood down the stretch. One advantage is Millwood's schedule the rest of the way. If the rotation holds, he'll get Seattle, Chicago, Kansas City, Detroit (road), Oakland (road), Baltimore, and L.A. The Los Angeles start is the only one I don't really like; Millwood has a chance to go 5-2 or 4-3 against that caliber of teams, and isn't a bad wins play if he's available in your league. Ignore the high bid; I had $126 of FAAB left due to Milton Bradley, Mark Teixeira and Luis Castillo all getting traded to the N.L., and I can't take it with me.

Jose Contreras $2. Other bid $1.
Like Millwood, Contreras shouldn't be quite this bad, but I don't feel as good about Jose as I do about Kevin. Contreras has a 9.09 ERA in his last 34 2/3 IP, and his K/IP rate has slid down for every year of his major league career. He's getting more and more hittable as he goes along, and there's no guarantee the White Sox will let him sit in the rotation come September when rosters expand to 40. He has the Royals this week, so might be a good play this week. Still, I think he's a high risk, and I wouldn't play him past that start.

Rainer Olmedo $2.
He's up for his defense and not worth owning in any Rotisserie leagues. This bid was to remove a player from a roster so that the team would fit under the league's salary cap.

Vicente Padilla $2.
The scouting report off of Padilla's last start against the Royals was that he looked like the 2006 version of Padilla, healthwise. The bad news there is that the '06 Padilla was still a pretty pedestrian pitcher who had a far superior offense behind him that allowed him to get those 15 wins. This is a very high risk play. I like his start tomorrow against Baltimore but I'm not too excited by his start later in the week against Seattle. Unlike Millwood, Padilla is currently slated to get the Angels twice, so his road is a little rockier going forward.

Chris Bootcheck $2.
He got knocked around by the Yankees tonight, but Bootcheck has been a pretty decent option out of the pen for the Angels this year. I typically don't like long relievers, but the Angels strong offense gives Bootcheck a shot at wins more so than the average long man.

Tike Redman $1.
Redman's a 30-year old ex-Pirate who is now playing for the Orioles after a solid year at Triple-A. He's not a prospect, obviously, and I'm not sure how much playing time he'll get going forward. If he does play, he's got speed (25 SB in AAA this year), and the Orioles have been giving the green light to anyone with wheels.

Jeff DaVanon $1.
DaVanon's got speed, and is probably the better choice defensively in center field over Nick Swisher, but Swisher's not going to sit, and Dan Johnson probably won't sit all that often for DaVanon either.

Bobby Kielty $1.
Kielty's a good option against lefties for the Red Sox, but I don't see him playing much down the stretch, and his platoon differential doesn't speak to tremendous numbers as a role player.

Reed Johnson. Claimed by 11th, 10th, 6th, 1st and 1st place teams.
Johnson was waived by a contender due to a roster crunch. He's a useful player to have as a fourth or fifth outfielder. His lack of power limits any additional value, and I could see Adam Lind's return in September reducing Johnson's AB along with his value.

Eric Hinske. Claimed by 10th place team.
He's a better option than Kielty AB for AB, but there's the rub. The Red Sox have buried Hinske and, as I said earlier in the year, he needs a trade out of Beantown.

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