Jones, Botts, and more on Salty

Rodger put it best when he replied to yesterday's A.L. FAAB column:

Adam Jones? Jason Botts?

Earlier in the year, I had been writing an additional FAAB column, which I had called "FAAB supplemental." The rationale was that although in most leagues players like Jones and Botts are kept as farm or reserve players, there are some leagues where you cannot keep anyone on a reserve list for any period of time. In short, I'm sorry for dropping the ball on this important column, and I'll return to writing about these types of players going forward.

Adam Jones
Jones went for $19 in rodger's league. I like Jones a lot, but my bid would be lower in non-keeper leagues, or leagues that put FAABed players back into the pool at year's end. As talented as Jones is, I think he'll struggle to see playing time initially, as the Mariners still have Raul Ibanez and Jose Vidro contending with Jones for AB. That isn't to say that Jones isn't the better option, but major league managers tend to be reluctant to stick rookies into the crucible of a pennant race until they've "proven" themselves, whatever that means. I'd probably bid $15 in a non-keeper league, knowing that Jones might not start more than 3 games a week.

Jason Botts
Like rodger, I think Botts is probably a better bet than Jones for this year. With the Rangers season down the drain, the Rangers seem committed to seeing what they have in Botts long-term. That means that, this year at least, he'll play almost every day for the rest of the year in one of the most favorable hitters' parks in baseball. Keep in mind that, in most leagues, Botts is a DH-only, meaning that if you own another DH-only, you can't bid on Botts. This might actually keep his price down, though all it takes in the FAAB universe is two teams with a highly inflated opinion of Botts to start a bidding war. I'd go $20-25 for Botts if I really needed to roll the dice on the pop. If you're playing for next year, Jones is a better bet than Botts in 2008, though I doubt you'll get either player at a price where he's worth keeping.

Finally, I got some negative feedback (via e-mail) on my write-up of Jarrod Saltalamacchia yesterday. My league-mate Keith (who bought Salty at that $17 price), said:

I have no regrets. There are a lot of varying opinions on Salty and what he will be worth next year. I had the FAAB to spend so I did.

Tim Dierkes at Rotoworld thinks he's a top 10 fantasy catcher right now after the trade to Texas. While that may be a little bold, I do think he will be a top 10 Fantasy catcher in 2008. Plus, based on the landscape of our league, I think I could flip him to (another owner) in the off-season if I want, who will be rebuilding after selling the farm to finish in (the money) this
year.

We'll see how the rest of the season plays out. I still think he might be a keep.

There are a lot of different points to address here. I'll start with the ones I agree with.

If you have the FAAB to spend, you should spend it. As noted in the column yesterday, the second highest bid on Saltalamacchia was $16, so Keith correctly gauged the market. In terms of long-term potential, there probably won't be a free agent like Saltalamacchia on the market for the rest of the year.

It is possible, if Saltalamacchia finishes strong, that he'll be a good commodity to trade this off season. Keeping Salty as a $17 S1 isn't what I'd do in a rebuilding situation, but I agree that some owner might.

My issues with Saltalamacchia are two-fold.

First, he hasn't done anything all that spectacular in the majors yet. 168 AB is a small sample size, but his 681 OPS coming into tonight would rank him 14th amongst all American League catchers with 100 or more AB.

(I'm assuming, by the way, that Dierkes meant "Top 10 Major League catchers", as opposed to "Top 10 American League catchers". Being ranked 10th our of 14 American League starting catchers isn't much to crow about. Expanding Salty's OPS ranking to major league catchers with 100 or more AB puts him at a woeful 27th.)

What's more important to me, though, is that adjusting to major league pitching as a hitter AND as a catcher is possibly one of the hardest jobs in major league baseball.

There are success stories, of course. Russell Martin was 23 years old in his great rookie year last year for the L.A. Dodgers. His 10/65/10/.282 line earned him $16 Patton bucks. Brian McCann did put up a $27 season as a 22-year old in 2006. But he also hit .278 in 180 AB for the Braves the year before with a somewhat better OPS. Joe Mauer earned $5 as a 21-year old in 2004, and $18 as a 22-year old in 2005.

There are also catching prospects who flop. Jeff Mathis was given an A- in John Sickels' 2004 book and has flopped thus far, losing $1 in 2006 as a 23-year old. He looks like he's going to have a hard time sticking as a regular. Dioner Navarro was given a B+ as a 20-year old in the same book and only earned $4 in his 22-year old season last year. He is probably losing money this year.

Then there are the catching prospects who haven't made it. Guillermo Quiroz and Justin Huber
are two names who immediately jump to mind. Raul Casanova, who spent some time with the Devil Rays this year, was considered in Mike Piazza's class as a prospect in the early 1990s. It didn't work out that way.

Here's a better question to ask yourself, Keith. How many major league catchers, in an N.L. or A.L.-only auction would you pay $17 for next year?

In the N.L., probably just Martin and McCann. In the A.L., probably just Mauer and Martinez.

There are a few A.L. catchers you could make a case for as keepers with inflation. But do you really want to lump a 22-year old who is struggling right now into that elite group?

I stand by my main point on Saltalamacchia. He could very well join the rarified air of McCann and Martin and quickly become an elite catcher. Based on his performance thus far, I don't think he's a good bet to do so. Don't forget that he reportedly had problems with his weight and defense in the Arizona Fall League last winter.

You might want to try even harder to trade him this off-season to a rebuilding squad.