More Dump Targets

Yesterday I started running through some potential targets for trades in A.L. only leagues if you're playing for next year. I'll continue on this theme tonight.


Brendan Harris: I like Harris, and he could very well be a solid 15/15 guy next year, which would make him well worth a $10 waiver price. However, he's also 26 years old, and his non-prospect veneer could very well hurt him next year when the Devil Rays are handing out jobs. He's a component player, and not someone I'd trade much for by himself.


Victor Diaz: Over 500 AB, Diaz would hit 40+ HR. Look closely at Diaz's numbers, though, and the small sample size screams "fluke," or at least "inconclusive." He's got a 1/31 BB/K ratio over 101 AB. I did not type that wrong. You would also think that Arlington would be helping him out, but seven of his nine HR have come on the road. The Rangers seem to know that Diaz is a platoon guy at best, as he only has 19 AB in the last three weeks. Don't get sucked into the small sample size here.

Delmon Young: Anyone who paid $20+ for him in a non-keeper draft is probably extremely disappointed. This is less of an issue in keeper leagues, but anyone who froze him for $10 probably expected more in the way of stats and profits. The tough thing about someone like Young is that it's hard to know when the breakout is going to come. A 724 OPS for a major league outfielder is subpar, but Young is a 21 year old not totally failing against major league pitching, and he deserves some credit for that. The problem we have is that those stats count the same for us regardless of whether Young is 21 or 31; we don't get any mulligans. I think Young is going to be good next year and break out in a big way in 2009. Chances are, his owner is going to want top talent if you want Young. He's probably not worth the risk, but the talent is there.

Ryan Garko: I like Garko, and see him as a 20-25 HR guy in the middle of a strong Cleveland line-up. Keep in mind that he is 26 years old, and that further improvement simply might not happen, though. Target but be realistic.

Ian Kinsler: Kinsler's a guy I'd put very high on my list, despite his current injured status. He has as many HR and SB as he had in 2006 in 162 fewer AB. His batting average is a disappointing .241, but he's actually improved his plate discipline this year, so his OPS nearly mirrors last year's. I think the average drop is a fluke, and wouldn't be surprised to see Kinsler settle in between .270-.280 with plenty of pop and some speed. Get him now if you can. Maybe his injury will allow you to buy low from an owner who is in contention and wants production now.

Billy Butler: I think he'll hit, but there's not enough sample size for the Royals for me to know for sure. The Royals have to stop jerking him around and just let him play, whether it's in Kansas City or in the minors. He's someone worth targeting, but I'd rather have a guy with a major league track record if I'm rebuilding.

Dan Johnson: He's reestablished himself as a 20-25 HR guy after a crummy 2006, but is a significant trade risk with Daric Barton almost ready to play in the majors. I'd take Johnson in a dump trade, but there is risk here. Johnson is also not young, though the A's to their credit won't see that as a minus.

John Buck: Owners trying to sell Buck are going to point to his 15 HR so far and tell you that the breakout is for real. I'm skeptical. His OPS by month, starting with April: 1106, 777, 831, 667. I hate agreeing with Buddy Bell, but I'm starting to see why Bell was reluctant to simply bury Jason LaRue. Buck will be a solid option as a cheap catcher next year, but don't overpay expecting 30+ HR from a catcher. He had a lights out month that's padded his stats to date.

Erick Aybar: I still like long term, but you can't add him to your squad based on this year's performance. Even the speed hasn't been there. He needs a trade.

Dustin Pedroia: His average is a little higher than I thought it would be. Otherwise, I hit the nail on the head this spring. Pedroia is a better real life option than a Roto option. He doesn't hit for power and doesn't run. His fantasy upside is as a $20-25 accumulator who hits 10-15 HR, steals 10-15 bases and drives in a ton of runs and hits for a good average in a strong line-up. I like him more in 5x5.

Alex Gordon: After two lousy months, Gordon put together a solid June for the Royals. He's a player, and I think the Hank Blalock comparisons will prove false: Gordon will live up to (most) of the hype the way that Blalock never could. Even better, Gordon's running a little bit. Buy and build around if you can.

Jason Bartlett: He's got 17 SB so far this year. Otherwise, his numbers are pretty pedestrian and he therefore runs the danger of losing AB in real life if something better comes along. Still, a middle infielder with 30 SB potential is worth adding if you can.

Gerald Laird: Terrible numbers, and he's not young (27 years old). I'm writing him off. If I'm wrong, there's nothing in the tea leaves that tells me I'm wrong.

Mike Napoli: Based on his minor league numbers, I was hoping for Mickey Tettleton, but he hasn't shown that much power. The good news is that Jeff Mathis looks like a non-factor, and Napoli still has 15-20 HR potential, which is nothing to sneeze at as a catcher. He's worth it in leagues where he was bought for $7 or less.

B.J. Upton: The real deal. It's easy to forget Upton's only 22 years old. Even with his injury, Upton could still finish with a 20/20 season when he's done this year. The walks are low, but not as bad as Rotoworld would have you believe. Upton is in a class with someone like Grady Sizemore. He has arrived, and there aren't many players who will provide the value Upton will as a freeze in 2008.