Dump Targets

With the Major League non-waiver trade deadline approaching, many Rotisserie Leagues will see their trade deadline occur as well. As I've talked about in previous posts, a couple of teams in your leagues have probably packed it in for this year. However, a lot of teams will most likely start making their decision to play for next year in the next week or two.

With this in mind, I thought I'd review possible trade targets in keeper leagues, along with the possibility of how likely it is that these players will a) make an impact in 2008 and b) continue to be undervalued. Remember, this exercise is focusing on players that you likely would be targeting in a dump deal. Justin Morneau will obviously make an impact next year, but it is highly unlikely that he's going to be at a cheap price in too many leagues next season.

Part I and Part II today and tomorrow will focus on American League hitters.

Reggie Willits: Willits is a wild card next year. He should definitely be a great SB play in 2008 and beyond, but keep in mind that the Angels do tend to prefer veterans, and Willits OPS isn't that great due to a total lack of power. I've got to believe Willits is a keep, but I wouldn't target him in my first tier of players.

Marlon Byrd: I have even less confidence in Byrd as a freeze for next year. The Rangers are in flux, their OF is crowded, and Byrd's sample size of 134 AB this year is tiny. That being said, a .388 batting average is hard to ignore. I'd be more inclined to take Byrd as a throw-in or as part of a larger deal than as a key component.

Adam Lind: Lind is the opposite of Willits and Byrd. A more highly regarded prospect than either, Lind has struggled in his first exposed taste of the majors, hitting only .230 in 235 AB. Still, the power is there, and Lind is on pace to hit about 15 HR, which isn't bad for a rookie. Lind is a risky play, but a good buy low candidate in a dump trade. I wouldn't expect an owner to hold out for two top players for Lind, and I'd deal two second-tier players for him if I were dumping. UPDATE: Lind was sent down today for Reed Johnson. I still think Lind is a good long term play, but obviously his price comes down.

Jack Cust: It looks to me like Cust is for real, even if you have to hold your nose at the strikeouts. 15 HR in 170 AB is pretty awesome. Even if the downside of Cust is 25-30 HR with a low batting average, his FAAB price will probably make him worth keeping. I think he'll start for the A's next year.

Melky Cabrera: He was probably purchased pretty cheaply in your league, but I wouldn't count on Melky breaking into the Yankees line-up in the near future. I think he's in the role he belongs in now as a 4th OF on a team with older options ahead of him. Even as a $3-4 freeze, Melky is more of a component player on a winning Roto squad, not a franchise guy.

Nick Markakis: Is he a franchise player to build around? That may not be a question the Orioles are asking, but it's a question you'll have to ask in Roto, since Markakis will be due a contract in many leagues next spring. His 896 OPS post All-Star last year had people believing that Markakis was a star in the making, but he's once again been pedestrian this year, posting a 763 OPS through last night. Granted, his 8 SB to date give him additional value in Roto. However, you do have to be careful here. He's certainly worth a top player and a second-tier player in a dump deal. But don't empty both barrels for him. He's only 23, which means there's room for improvement, but he's only 23, which means that improvement might very well be incremental.

Grady Sizemore: By now, Sizemore's probably on a long-term contract in most leagues. However, he has to be included here, because he is probably the target in carryover leagues. Even in a down year, Sizemore looks like he'll be a $30 player. Building around a 20/40 guy with potential to improve is always a great idea. I'd give up two top players for him, easily.

Carlos Pena: Even if he isn't a 40 HR hitter, Pena is for real. If he regresses next year to a 25 HR guy with a .250 average, he's still a solid play at $10. Try to convince your trading partner that Pena is more of a throw-in than a guy who you'd trade something for by himself. Yeah, that won't work now. It might have worked in late May.

Tony Pena Jr.: Pass. Kudos to him for keeping his batting average decent, but he isn't running, and that's where his value would lie.

Kurt Suzuki: He might be Oakland's starting catcher on Opening Day 2008, but he probably won't be worth the $10 free agent price he'd have to be frozen at in most leagues.

Howie Kendrick: I still believe in him, but his Roto numbers just haven't done it for me. The real red flag, though, are the 15 BB in 457 major league AB. He might be a $20+ 2B some day, but you can't trade for him like he's worth that much yet.

Josh Fields: Across 500 AB, he looks like he could hit 25-30 HR, albeit with a low batting average. The red flag here are the strikeouts. I'm not anti-high strikeouts per se, but Fields is on pace to strike out 188 times per 500 AB. That's a lot, and it tells me that the quality of pitches he's going to see is going to get worse as pitchers start hearing the news. Don't avoid, but don't overpay.