I could also have titled this post Andrew Miller, because that's the only player I'm writing about this week.
And this might seem lazy, but I don't have a lot to say about Miller that's already been said. He was Baseball America's 10th highest rated prospect overall, and the 4th highest pitcher coming into this year behind D-Mat, Philip Hughes and Homer Bailey. In other words, even mixed leaguers better know who this guy is. He's a product of North Carolina, and is a polished college pitcher. I actually disagree with Rotoworld and don't think Miller is 100% ready yet; I've read that his change-up still needs a little refinement and is a below average pitch. Yes, that's a quibble, but it's also the difference between a rookie ready to dominate and one who might just be above average.
He turned 22 yesterday.
I'd limit my bid to $15. I think Miller will be solid this year if he stays up, but there are too many variables, including the fact that Kenny Rogers is suddenly recovering faster than expected. However, that bid won't get him. If you need to take a chance on Miller staying up all year, then go as high as $30. I like Miller's ceiling better than Tim Lincecum's, who as you all know has gotten more hype despite the fact that Miller probably has a slightly higher ceiling.
In my humble opinion.
2 comments:
With Rich Harden on the DL, I very strongly considered making a major play for Miller. However, his walk numbers this year in class A are not especially good. He walked 15 in 41.1 innings for Lakeland. That's not horrible, but I suspect the walk rate would increase to an unacceptable 2007 amount in the majors.
Granted, Miller gave up only 1 dinger in the minors and had an 8 inning game at class AA (Eastern League) with 7k/0bb. Still, I very strongly suspect he is NOT ready for the major leagues. His minor league ERA is distorted by 6 UER in 49.1 IP.
I bid a token amount just to make sure no one got him next year for free. Cleveland's Adam Miller seems the more polished guy, even if Andrew has a higher upside. Adam had 153.2 quality innings in the Eastern League in 2006 and has been pitching well in AAA Buffalo.
Also, I decided my money is probably better spent on Clemens.
What's the bid?
I didn't get too much into Miller's minor league numbers, mainly because the sample size is so small. Nevertheless, I agree that the trends you point out are disconcerting, to say the least.
I also agree that Adam Miller is a somewhat better bet for 2007, assuming that the Indians need him. With Fausto Carmona pitching as well as he has, an otherwise steady rotation and Jake Westbrook on the DL, the Indians might leave Miller in AAA until September.
If you're asking what the bid on Clemens is, the inevitable answer will probably be "whatever it takes" if you want to own him. I'd set it at a minimum of $85, which already will knock a few teams out of the running. Six teams in my league are currently sitting on $90+, and I'm guessing that at least two of those teams will go to at least $90 to get him.
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