Scott Baker $12. Other bids $10, $10, $8, $5, $2
I figured Baker would go for $10 and I bid "only" $8, just because I'm not supremely confident that Matt Garza and Kevin Slowey won't eventually lap him in the Twins pecking order. Baker succeeds when he hits his spots in the zone; his fastball might hit 92 MPH on a good day, but 88-90 MPH is more likely. He's three other pitches, but the key for Baker is keeping the ball on the ground and making them hit it where they are. John Sickels at one point gave Baker a B+ and projected him long-term as a #3 starter. CBS Sportsline says that "His stuff just is not that good." I'm not as high on Baker as Sickels is, but I also think that he's probably a major league starter. From a Roto standpoint, the problem is that I don't think the Twins are going to have a long leash with Slowey lighting it up in AAA.
Tyler Clippard $2. Other bid $1
I'm not sure why such a low winning bid on Clippard. It could be for any number of reasons, including 1) Clemens will bump him out of the rotation sooner than later, 2) Clippard's stuff is less than awe-inspiring, 3) my league has an anti-Yankee bias, or 4) people had better things to do than watch the Yankees/Mets on ESPN Sunday night.
I did see the game and while I wasn't exactly blown away, I do agree with Rotoworld's assessment that Clippard could fool a few teams on his first go 'round. Sickels' write-up from this year's book is posted over at his most excellent web site, and I don't have much more to add than that. I doubt everyone in my league reads Sickels, but a combination of factors is probably why Clippard was virtually ignored. I could also see why you might bid a few ticks higher.
Wishy-washy enough for you?
Alan Embree $2. Other bids $1, $1.
I wound up grabbing Embree, following my rule of bidding $2 if you really want the guy and he isn't simply a fungible replacement. I don't think he's going to gobble up a ton of saves, but Justin Duchscherer is hurt, there are grumblings out of Oakland that Kiko Calero might be hurt, and suddenly you're left with a pretty open shot for saves in Athletics Nation. Connor Robertson might have the best raw stuff in that pen, but Embree and Witasick will probably pick up the odd save here and there if The Duke can't go. Usage patterns already indicate that Calero already isn't completely trusted, injury or no. I'm assuming, by the way, that Huston Street's injury is far worse than the A's are letting on and that he won't be back until August at the earliest.
Adam Melhuse $1
Jason Kendall is sucking wind this year and Melhuse still is getting virtually no PT. Pass.
Jason Ellison $1
Another guy who isn't playing, even though Rotoworld might be correct that Ellison is a better pinch-hitting option than Willie Bloomquist. Pass again.
Jesse Litsch $1
He probably goes for more in a non-Philadelphia league, but a lot of us here in Philly saw his subpar outing yesterday against the Phils. I know Philly's a tough park to pitch in, but Litsch didn't look like a major leaguer to me. To be fair, he's only 22 years old, and maybe he'll get better, but I think he's a poor man's Tyler Clippard, which means that I'd guess he's a Quad A guy. A bid on Litsch is a stab in the dark. To be fair, the guy who bought him is in last and playing for 2008, but Litsch's salary will jump to $10 this winter, and I just don't see him being worth $10. On the other hand, a hot mini-run by Litsch could fetch a minor leaguer in trade.
Scott Downs $1
I still think Downs will pick up some saves in this bullpen, despite what Rotoworld and CBS Sportsline and every expert web site I've read says. Downs' K/IP so far has been lights out, but it's less because of this and more because my faith in Jeremy Accardo and Casey Jannsen is limited. Downs will have to keep to ball in the park, though. He's done that so far, but his 21 HR in 171 IP from 2005-2006 doesn't inspire confidence in a quasi-closer.
Frank Francisco $1
I somehow doubt I'm going to rue the day I didn't buy Francisco, but I do like him a lot. Having just traded for Chris Ray, Embree was my effort to troll for a couple of additional saves. I might have been better off, though, grabbing Francisco, who almost definitely won't get any saves in the Gagne/Otsuka/Benoit bullpen but who looks great since his successful ligament replacement surgery in April 2005. As an aside, Matthew Pouliot's entertaining column today ran through all 14 American League bullpens and the possible closers from 2008-2010. It's obviously very speculative, but it's an extremely entertaining read.
Jaime Walker $1
Every year someone picks this guy up and every year Walker puts up somewhere in the neighborhood of $5-10 of value. Since 2003, Walker has earned $10, $8, $5, $5 and $5. So the good news is that he almost definitely won't hurt you. The bad news is that, unless you draft him and hold on to him until the last out of the regular season, you're probably not getting $5 worth of value. More likely, you are getting $2 or $3 worth of value. The conundrum with guys like Walker, then, is that unless your staff is rock solid 1-8, you probably want to roll the dice on someone more productive with your last pitching slot. And if your staff is rock solid 1-8, you probably can take a little bit of an ERA/WHIP hit and roll the dice on your ninth slot.
Matt Thornton $1
This is my second time writing about Thornton this year. He picked up a save in the first game of a doubleheader last week, but he probably isn't going to supplant Bobby Jenks. Then again, who would supplant Jenks if he went down? My guess would have been David Aardsma heading into this week, but Aardsma got ripped twice in two days against the Cubs. Mike Macdougal's been getting used in low leverage situations, but that could change with Aardsma's implosion. Thornton's fine at $1; my point is that even these cheap-o bids in search of saves are typically fruitless.
Josh Wilson $1
Another winning bid by another team that decided to pack it in for 2007. I'm not sure I see the point here. Wilson won't be worth $10 in 2008 and he might not even be in the majors. He's beginning to look like a utility guy, and I think the speed he showed in the minors last year will go away.
Angel Berroa $1
Purchased by the same team that bought Wilson. Tony Pena Jr. has sucked, but Berroa isn't the answer either. And, like Wilson, he won't be worth $10 in 2008.
Brian Burres $1
Purchased by the same team that bought Wilson and Berroa. Burres could be worth $10+ in 2008, but I feel pretty safe predicting that freezing him at $10 would be folly. Burres has had control issues at every level. If Burres were a 21-year-old kid who had been rushed up to the majors, I'd cut him some slack. At 26, there is no slack to be had. I think this is a very dangerous play if you're playing for this year.
Julian Tavarez. Claimed by 11th place team
He faces off against the Yankees in the Bronx tomorrow. His ERA/WHIP both are pretty bad this year, but his peripherals tell me that he's been somewhat unlucky this year. He's keeping the ball on the ground like he did last year but the results just aren't as favorable. Without looking it up, I'd guess that Tavarez's batting average against on balls in play (BABIP) is very poor and should improve based on his career norms. I'm not saying to rush out and pick Tavarez up for this match-up, but I am saying that he might surprise you and do OK.
Jorge Cantu. Claimed by 9th place and 4th place teams
Drafted as a farm player this year, Cantu was unceremoniously waived after he spent the maximum of two transaction weeks on reserve. The team that lost him couldn't find a spot for Cantu at 2B, MI, 1B or CO. Unlike in real baseball, where you can draft the best player on the board, you have to keep this in mind in your farm draft, especially if you are drafting after the major league auction (which you should). Cantu has been up in the majors almost a full month now and has all of 17 AB to show for it. I'd say this is a waste of a pick-up, except 1) the team that grabbed him is playing for 2008 and 2) if Cantu gets traded to the N.L., the team that claimed him will get $10 FAAB to play with. Slick move.
Eric Hinske. Claimed by 7th, 5th and 4th place teams.
Hinske really needs a trade. He's buried in Boston, but he might be a semi-useful part timer or platoon player on a weaker team. Then again, he's 29 years old, and better players than Hinske have failed given an equal or greater shot.
Tomo Ohka. Claimed by 4th place team.
I believe this is the third time I've written about Ohka this year. He's out of the rotation now, but he could be worth a shot at $3 next year, and the rumors that he might get traded to the N.L. would give the claimant $3 FAAB.
Kyle Farnsworth. Claimed by 1st place team.
I'm curious to know why Farnsworth's strikeouts are down. Otherwise, this is the same pitcher he's always been, except for the fact that Joe Torre doesn't trust him at the moment, so Farnsworth's value takes a little bit of a hit at the moment. He's still the most talented reliever in that bullpen not named Mariano. I'm pretty sure, though, that Mariano will right himself and get rolling in the saves department once more.
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