Fred Lewis $14. Other bids: $4, $3, $2
I don't know what to make of Fred Lewis long-term. He was never considered a top prospect, but he struck me as someone who I thought would be better in Roto than in real life due to his speed. His peak as a prospect probably came in 2004, when he put a 8/57/33/.301 line at High-A San Jose at the age of 23. Lewis's big problem was that he was old for his level, but I thought that he could still rise fast and be a productive player.
Three years later, it looked like Lewis was going to be stuck with that Quad A label: good enough to get a few cups of coffee in the bigs, but not good enough to stick. Then he goes out and hits for the cycle this weekend, and suddenly Roto Nation is very, very excited.
I still don't know what to make of Lewis long-term. My gut tells me that he could actually eke out a productive career as a Dave Roberts type. However, he's with the Giants, who would rather field aging vets than give someone like Lewis a chance.
Short term, it's probably irrelevant. Lewis should get most of the AB over Dan Ortmeier, so he is worth a decent $5-10 bid. He'll steal a couple of bases and maybe even hit another dinger or two while Roberts is out.
Justin Germano $14
The bid was way too high, but after Germano's first two outings, I could see why someone would make sure to push the envelope. He's a junkballer who will be helped to some degree by Petco, though I think the league will catch up to him if he's up for an extended period of time. I'd like to see some data on whether or not he's a groundball or a flyball pitcher; his minor league stats imply that he's a groundballer, but I can't find evidence of that anywhere on the Internet.
Wandy Rodriguez $5
I feel a lot better about Rodriguez than I did the last time I wrote about him, due to a 40/12 K/BB rate in 43 2/3 IP this season. Rotoworld claims he's "all over the map", but Wandy's two bad outings came in the bandbox in Cincy and against the red-hot Brewers. I'd recommend Rodriguez as a match-up pitcher at the very least and would watch to see if he can continue what looks to me like some significant and real improvement over his history up until now.
Greg Dobbs $2. Other bid $1
Dobbs should play somewhat while Ryan Howard is on the DL with an ailment that grows more mysteriously disturbing with each passing day, but I'm not sold on him doing much of anything. Rotoworld thinks Dobbs can at least hit for average, but I'm not sure that Dobbs' lousy BB/AB ratio in the minors (137/1711) means that his good averages will translate. The Phils are better off with Helms at 1B and Nunez at 3B, and I don't see Dobbs contributing much except RBI, depending on where he sits in the line-up.
Aaron Miles $1
Miles might offer some great intangibles to a major league club but, statistically, he's an absolute cipher if he isn't running, which he hasn't done since 2004 in Colorado. Owning Miles and Adam Kennedy is a terrible strategy, if that's where your mind is going: Kennedy's value is hurt by Tony LaRussa's insistence on playing Miles 2-4 times a week, and Miles isn't valuable enough to own, even in a deep league, unless he's playing 6-7 times a week.
Doug Brocail $1
You have to root for a guy who had two angioplasties last year and who turns 40 on Wednesday. It doesn't mean you have to own him, though, and I can't help wondering if Brocail will get left in some blowout to get pounded one of these days. Tip of the cap, though; Brocail hasn't allowed a run since April 15, and his scoreless streak sits at 13 2/3 IP.
Brad Eldred $1
It looks to me like it's over for Eldred. He's not playing, and the 5/41 start he's put up isn't going to gain him any additional time. He needs a trade, but maybe what he really needs is an agent who will convince Brad to head over to Japan for a couple of years. I don't see what he has to lose at this point.
Scott Hairston $1
Like Eldred, this guy also needs a trade. Unlike Eldred, Hairston's blistering minor league numbers tell me that he deserves a real chance somewhere. Tuscon or no, OPSs of near 1000 the last two years tell me that someone should roll the dice and see what Hairston can do. I can't fault the D-backs for not benching Eric Byrnes, but Hairston could be at least as good as Byrnes if he got the AB.
Matt Lindstrom $1. Other bid $1
With Jorge Julio shipped out today and Henry Owens on the DL, Lindstrom and Taylor Tankersley are the short-term favorites for saves in Florida. Given that Tankersley got lit up against the Nats on Saturday, Fredi Gonzalez might actually go with Lindstrom for the next chance. I like Tank long term, but Lindstrom might snag a handful of saves in the near future. Great cheap pick-up at $1.
Jose Castillo $1
Unless the winning bidder knows something I don't about Castillo getting traded, this bid is a waste of $1. Castillo's not going to play, he's alienated Pittsburgh's management, and he's not going to produce enough of the bench to warrant a spot even in deep leagues. Only 26, I do believe that he could still have a productive career somewhere else, though his lousy OBPs tell me that he'll be more of an asset in Roto than real life.
Woody Williams $1
Williams was originally drafted, but his owner understandably lost patience after a horrid start. For those of you in 4x4 leagues who think strikeout rates are meaningless and pitching is just luck, Williams's move from Petco to Minute Maid is going to prove you so wrong that you won't ever be able to find what's right ever again.
Tony Gwynn Jr. $1. Other bid $1
He's put up some nice numbers, but not for Roto purposes. I got to see Gwynn play a little bit this weekend, and was surprised at how good he looked against the Mets on Saturday. He might not be a bad play in a very deep league because of his speed, but I don't see him getting a real shot with Milwaukee.
Paul Maholm $1
A guy who keeps the ball on the ground as much as Maholm does shouldn't be allowing so many HRs. He's young enough to improve markedly, but I'd avoid him right now based on his numbers. He strikes me as a guy who will suddenly and inexplicably improve one day and be owned on that day by the league's village idiot, who will then trade Maholm to the owner in your league that has that idiot owner's super-secret cell phone number that no one else has.
Kevin Frandsen $1. Other bid $1
Frandsen is one of those scrappy guys who will probably stick around as a utility guy for 10-15 years even though his numbers will never seem to warrant it. I suppose those minor league doubles could turn to major league homers, but Frandsen swings at everything and should be exposed by major league pitching if Ray Durham does get hurt this year.
Geoff Blum $1
He's versatile. He always manages to find a way to get about 300 AB. He's certainly worth a blind FAAB stab at $1.
4 comments:
Hey Mike, ha - great to spend $45 on what I could have gotten for $11, but whatever. Our new FAAB rules mean people are going to be stuck with way too much money, in my opinion - especially once the cap is considered. Still shocked that nobody else bid on Germano, though. I think the value in Hairston is if Quentin is injured or demoted - he was my 2nd choice after Lewis.
Anyway, I've been reading a bit and like what you're doing here. Perhaps you'd consider giving your opinions on free agents before they're picked up?
Other things that I think your readers might find interesting are comments on trading - for example, it's very rare to have so much of a surplus in a category that it's a no-brainer to trade it for something else. So given that basically every "one category for another" trade is going to both hurt and help you, how do you decide if it's worth it?
And how about the lack of non-dump trades? As you remember I'm sure, that's really common in our league, and I suspect it's pretty common in most. The thing is this: nobody's dumping yet, and nobody is going to trade good keepers without getting keeper value for them, so tons of players are basically off-limits for trades until later on. Also you don't want to sell low (there's no point in me trading Ensberg now, for example), and among other players, you've got a few cheap guys that are either a) worthless at worst and not tradable at best (eg. Endy Chavez) or b) guys that you're not going to get anything in trade for but have some potential so you want to hold on to them. What's left are maybe a couple players per team who are priced at value and performing well.
Am I wrong in thinking this makes non-dump trades nearly impossible?
Hope your season's going better than mine so far...
Hey Brett,
Here are my thoughts, Mike can chime in as well . . .
It's a fine line, as far as dumping is concerned -- nobody wants to do it too soon, but nobody wants to wait too long. I think the first trade in most leagues will happen soon, and I think more often than not the first dump trade will be the best. At least, that's my experience.
Non-dump trades -- there is an objective analysis to be made, if a given trade would help both traders move up in categories more than they would move down in the others. (Lots of stat services will help out in that analysis, though the predictions do depend on the services' projections.)
The old RLBA books' advice is worth heeding here -- trades of more players can be a good way to even things out while still giving one a net point swing. It also gives both trading partners a chance to improve, especially if both hitters and pitchers are involved. Finally, a bigger trade makes it more likely that the trade will have "sleepers" on both sides. So, I think that making multi-player trade offers makes non-dump trades more likely (or, at least, improves the chances of a counter-offer) than does a one-for-one offer.
Brett - how have you been old friend?
Philosophically, the objective non-dump trade is the hardest analysis. Why? Because you are giving up something for only, really, one other something; robbing Peter to pay Paul may be a good analogy. There is a psychological hurdle to overcome to, say, trade a Manny Ramirez for John Lackey (as I did earlier in the year). It is much easier to trade, say a $2 Albert Pujols for 4 producers, even though you like Pujols.
If you are confident in your analysis and ability to trade, however, there are great gains to be made in fair trades. One, you can unload surplus. Two, you can actually create surplus, planning on another fair trade down the line. Three, if you anticipate a dump deal, you can create a hole or two to fill on your roster to dump into while strengthening other categories.
I always thought the dumping culture was for lazy people who didn't like to work on trading or analysis. Now that I've been doing this for 12 years, I realize that it is necessary, but the art of the fair trade must still be practiced.
Hey Brett. Welcome.
To answer your first question, I would write about free agents "early", but your league's Sunday deadline is at least a day earlier than just about any league I've ever seen.
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