Yesterday, I took a look at the American League and went through the very difficult exercise of trying to predict in mid-May which teams will be buyers and sellers in late July. Today, I'll try my hand at the National League.
N.L. East
Buyers: Atlanta, New York
Sellers: Florida, Washington
Could go either way: Philadelphia
I suppose you could flip-flop Florida and Philadelphia, but the N.L. East looks fairly predictable to me compared to the other divisions in the league. Atlanta might be playing a little bit over their heads, but I like their bullpen and Smoltz/Hudson is a very strong 1-2 punch right now. The Mets are playing very well and will also slip a little without Pedro, but should stay in contention until he's back and are playing with very deep pockets.
My suppositions on Florida and Philly are based less on performance and more on team philosophy. The Marlins still have a bunch of kids and unless they're within 5 games in mid-July, I can see them waving the white flag. Philadelphia, on the other hand, has a manager and a general manager who might very well be fighting for their jobs this season, and I don't think Pat Gillick's going to be inclined to sell two years in a row.
N.L. Central
Buyers: Milwaukee, Chicago
Sellers: Houston, St. Louis, Pittsburgh
Could go either way: Cincinnati
We know that the Brewers are extremely unlikely to play at a .700 clip the rest of the way, but they do look like a legit contender. That leaves the thankless task of trying to figure out which of the rest of the division's sub-5oo teams will either 1) go on a hot streak and challenge the Brewers for the division or 2) win enough games to contend for the wild card.
I agree with a lot of the chatter that the Cubs have built their team in a dysfunctional manner and that, long term, they're a disaster waiting to happen. However, I also think they might be the next best team in the division and, if everything breaks right, could challenge for the wild card. Alfonso Soriano will heat up at some point, and it's hard to count out a team with Sori/Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis are clearly pitching well over their heads, but both could very well be solid all year long.
People have been overly wringing their hands about the Astros. They look more like a .500 team to me than a loser. But it won't matter if the front office decides enough is enough. The Cardinals might be a team that stands pat even though they should sell; the team suddenly looks very old and might not even win the 83 games they won last year.
I want to believe in the Pirates and their new found pitching strength, but their history makes me think they'll be packing it in come July. That leaves the Reds, who I think probably will also pack it in, but might make a little noise behind their top starting three of Harang/Arroyo/Lohse.
N.L. West
Buyers: Los Angeles, San Diego
Sellers: Colorado
Could go either way: Arizona, San Francisco
The rankings in the N.L. West have less to do with how good I believe each team is and more once again with organizational philosophy. LA and SD clearly are the better teams in the division but are also positioned in a mode where they want to win now. San Francisco is also positioned this way, but is a weaker and, more significantly, older team. A couple of key injuries would lead to a rapid collapse; a Bonds injury might make it all but immediate. Arizona is on the other end of this. The D-Backs have a very exciting young team, but might not want to pull the trigger on a serious commitment to this year and break up their young nucleus. Colorado is the sole team in this division that looks like they're trapped at the bottom and should look to move whoever they can.
Now that I've gone over the divisional landscape, I'll take a look at the mid-year trade possibilities in my next non-FAAB post.
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