Anyone have thoughts on a short list of similar cross-over players for this year?One of the difficult components of such an exercise in early to mid-May is attempting to figure out who the buyers and who the sellers will be. There is always a very small handful of teams that will clearly (and perhaps perpetually) be in one camp or another. Even if the Yankees are hovering around the .500 mark in mid-July, I doubt that Bobby Abreu, Jorge Posada and Andy Pettitte will be sold for prospects. Similarly, there are a couple of teams, such as the Royals and the Nationals, who will probably sell the small handful of players they have who will be free agents this winter if they have the opportunity to do so.
I might attempt this difficult exercise over the weekend. First, though, let's look at the American League and identify possible buyers/sellers.
A.L. East
Buyers: Red Sox, Yankees
Sellers: Blue Jays, Orioles, Devil Rays
The Red Sox currently have the best record in the American League and even if they don't play .700 ball the rest of the way, should be a contender. As mentioned above, the Yankees are buyers always, come hell or high water.
The Orioles and Devil Rays are simply not strong enough to run with the Sox/Yanks. I like the way the Rays are gradually building up their team (finally), but they're still three starters short. The Orioles are the usual mix of weak hitters and weak pitchers after a few key components like Tejada, Bedard and Roberts.
The Blue Jays are a sinking ship, and every day that John Gibbons but particularly J.P. Ricciardi stays employed in the organization is a black eye for the Blue Jays, their players, and their fans. I can't think of too many reasons that would make me stop rooting for my favorite team, but the B.J. Ryan incident would be a reason in my book. Firing Ricciardi would be a step in the right direction. His "business plan" for the Blue Jays has failed, the team is old and has holes, and it's time to bring in another architect to build on the foundation.
UPDATE - With Roy Halladay going on the DL with appendicitis, Ricciardi might get a pass for the absolutely bush-league garbage he pulled with Ryan. It also makes the Jays definite sellers.
A.L. Central
Buyers: Cleveland, Detroit
Seller: Chicago, Kansas City
Could go either way: Minnesota
This is why I hate making these calls early; two months from now the White Sox could be in first place and the Indians could be five games under .500. Furthermore, with the exception of the Royals, you can still make a case right now for anyone else in this division being the strongest team.
I base my predictions not so much on current performance but on roster composition, roster age, and how each team looks. Detroit is still the best team in my mind; they've got a solid line-up top to bottom with the exception of Sean Casey. I don't like Maroth/Durbin at the back of the rotation, but I think the team will hold up. Cleveland's Hafner/Sizemore/V-Mart trio is one of the best hitting trios in baseball, and the rest of the line-up isn't so shabby either. Sowers is a problem, but with Adam Miller and Fausto Carmona, it's not an insurmountable one. Same goes for Borowski; he's disposable if necessary.
The Royals are what they are: a rudderless team without a plan, a couple of good rookies that are 3-4 years away from pushing a team toward a pennant and not much else. The White Sox are the team I could see throwing in the towel. They're on the older side, and the fans in Chi Town are suddenly calling for Greg Walker and Ozzie's head.
The Twins offense is anemic, and they drop a few wins without Liriano, but any team with Santana and Nathan could easily be in the race. Wait until late June and see what their record is.
A.L. West
Buyers: Angels
Sellers: Mariners, Rangers
Could go either way: A's
Theoretically, any of the teams in this division could be buyers or sellers, but my gut tells me that the Angels are the thin cream of this fallow crop. 87-89 wins could win this division, so it could very well be a question of whether or not to hang around with 80-85 wins even though tearing it down to build it back up might be a better plan. The Mariners offense is putrid. Ibanez looks like he's gotten old fast, and Guillen and Vidro don't appear like they're going to bounce back the way the M's hoped when they acquired them. Of course Felix's injury is being handled like some sort of White House scandal (he'll be back May 8, no May 15, no...), so that's really the key...this team can't run without him.
The Rangers are a team that also should probably start over. There are rumblings that Teixeira will get dealt, even though he won't be a free agent this winter.
The A's are the most intriguing team. Their offense looks very weak, and Harden is on the shelf forever and ever and ever, but Billy Beane has fielded weaker teams on paper. I never count out the A's. Should they sell? Maybe. But let's see what they look like in late June.
I'll look at the N.L. tomorrow.
6 comments:
I don't really have any major quarrels with your lists of buyers and sellers. However, you make some off-hand comments that don't always ring true to me.
First, the Twins depend a lot more on Mauer and Morneau than Joe Nathan. I don't think he'll get traded, but he could blow out his elbow and I doubt the team would feel the pain that much. Slowey and Garza provide this team some pitching depth and their entire bullpen has been pretty good for years. Either Kubel starts to hit or the Twins find a new leftfielder. Punto is obviously no more than a utility guy who already needs to be replaced.
The Royals, incidentally, do have a plan and it begins with a greater measure of accountability than they've had in some recent years. Keep in mind that young teams can improve drastically in a hurry. I don't think it's going to take 3 to 4 years for Butler, Gordon, et al to turn the Royals into a high scoring team. They need to figure out how to turn their most promising young arms into quality major league pitchers. They should get another one in June, btw.
I'm not sure what to make of your comments about the Blue Jays. It is very difficult to compete with the Sox and Yanks, who have both deep pockets and brains. Ricciardi has tried the same kind of market ploys that Billy Beane used quite successfully, but they haven't yet paid off. Frank Thomas could have been a big bargain, but he isn't hitting for power. The college pitchers are not becoming stars. Glaus and Ryan are hurt. What they need most to approach past glory is a shining star middle infielder like Robby Alomar.
Rodger:
I would agree that the Twins bullpen is deep enough to withstand an injury to Nathan. However, his performance the last couple of years has been a huge factor in the Twins's success. Slowey and Garza certainly do provide depth, but it is next to impossible that either will pitch like Liriano did last year. That will cost the Twins quite a few wins.
It's possible the Royals will improve, but their pitching is still awful and their pipeline doesn't have any great arms on the horizon. Yanking Greinke out of the rotation doesn't make sense, and they've still got a lot of veterans like Sweeney, Grudzielanek, Emil Brown and Reggie Sanders clogging up spots.
J.P. Ricciardi hasn't been on the job for two years, he's been in Toronto for four years now. I would agree that he's in a tough division, but Ricciardi also came in with a lot of tough talk about how his "business plan" was going to make the Jays competitive. Troy Glaus is hurt but it's not like he didn't have a significant injury history. Thomas is an older player whose demise can't be a surprise. In general, Ricciardi seems to have gone from following a blueprint to throwing money at the wall and seeing what sticks. You can cut Ricciardi some slack about an inability to compete with the Yankees and the Red Sox, but he's also made some mistakes that are baffling.
KC:
Luke Hochevar is a quality arm.
Brent Fisher is off to a slow start, but his Rookie league campaign last year was very good.
They could/should nab a very good college pitcher.
The problem lately is that guys with high ceilings are not making very much progress: Greinke, Denny Bautista, Jeremy Affeldt, etc.
That's got to reflect some kind of coaching problem, I'd think. It should be reversible.
Now THERE'S an example of making an off-handed comment, rodger! I meant to say "the Royals don't have MANY great arms on the horizon." Hochevar is a quality prospect. Fisher could also be could, as could Tyler Lumsden.
However, the scouting consensus on KC is that their pitching depth in the minors is still thin. Given all of the years they've been in rebuilding mode, this is shocking.
John Sickels had a great take, as he always does, on the Royals system this winter:
Like Sickels, I'm a Royals fan...and perhaps overly defensive.
There are a lot of Royals fans in the so-called "analyst community" and most of them have been very concerned about the failure of KC to turn genuine prospects into quality major leaguers.
Some of those prospects have found success in other organizations after KC gave up.
I find it hard to believe that anyone is a Royals fan. The organization, in my mind, is committed only to trying to put fannies in the seats. The minor league system is mismanaged. Prospects are brought up too early and left to flounder. Aged veterans are brought in for no apparent reason other than to go on the disabled list; those players are not even traded for value.
Unfortunately for the Royals, the current management and ownership are not committed to winning and have no plan for the future, other than starting the clocks on people like Butler and Gordon, which will mercifully speed their departure from that god-foresaken team.
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