FAAB 101

In response to my A.L. FAAB column yesterday, Tom writes:

We're using FAAB for the first time in my league this year. Any tips on budgeting $, or approximately how much you want to head into the trade deadline with?

I'm in the process of putting together a more detailed analysis, which I will hopefully be able to roll out in the near future. For now, these are some general guidelines based on my experience with FAAB. This article assumes the standard rules of $100 FAAB with a $1 minimum bid.

Bid $1 if you can. Too many times, I've seen owners get excited and bid a ridiculous amount on a journeyman or a player who probably won't garner that much interest. Here are some examples from my league last year of players who received a $5 bid or more where there was either no other bid or the next highest bid was $1: Terry Tiffee ($10), Bob Keppel ($9), Joel Hannahan ($6), Doug Mirabelli ($6), Jon Koronka ($5), Mike Rouse ($5). I joke about how mixed leaguers wouldn't know who these guys are, but I have to admit that it took me a minute or two to remember who Keppel and Hannahan were.

$2 is a better shut out bid than $10. This rule ties back to the $1 bid rule. If you really want a player and think someone else might put the minimum bid in, bid $2. If you don't get the guy, it's not the end of the world. Most of the time, you'll be surprised to find that no one else bid. It's better to spend $1 too much than $5 too much.

Try to think about what other owners' needs are. If you have a great feeling about Sal Fasano but it doesn't seem that anyone else in the league has a pressing need for a catcher, don't go crazy with your bid.

Remember that next week is another opportunity. I know it's hard when you're in 9th place and Dallas Braden has just put in a lights out start against the Orioles and your pitching is tanking like Travolta did in "Battlefield Earth". But remember that pitchers will bounce up and down throughout the year. If you don't think Braden is a legit prospect, don't get sucked in based on one start.

There's a reason these guys are free agents, especially in April and early May. John McDonald might be hitting .450, but he's not a .450 hitter. Yes, Royce Clayton sucks, but that doesn't make McDonald a savior any more than it makes me one. Bid $1. Bid $2 if you must. Anything past that and you're dreaming.

So where should you spend your FAAB?

1) Imports from the "other" league. This is where you'll wind up spending a good portion of your money.
2) Promising rookies who aren't on anyone's reserve list or farm system.
3) Closers du jour.

How much to spend is something that varies a lot from league to league. Boof Bonser went for $45 in the LABR expert league last year, while I got him for $17 in my league. Cory Lidle only went for $20 in LABR, he went for $32 in my league. There isn't any rhyme or reason to this. Injuries play a factor; a year with a lot of injuries and the need for a lot of in-season $1 or $2 replacements can limit a few teams quickly and cause a drop in later bidding.

Another question that comes up a lot is should you wait for the stud player at the trade deadline and hoard your FAAB? I say no, just because in some years that stud never comes over.

The bids in my American League in 2006 around the Major League trade deadline:
Carlos Lee $98
Bobby Abreu $81
Sean Casey $54
Cory Lidle $32
Ryan Shealy $15
Craig Wilson $14
Kip Wells $7

The bids in my American League in 2005 around the Major League trade deadline:
Phil Nevin $72
Eric Byrnes $40
Jose Cruz Jr. $30
Shawn Chacon $21
Geoff Blum $15

This is probably one of the most cautionary tales about not saving your money waiting for a superstar to come into the league to save your season. Carlos Lee at $98 and Abreu at $81 were great additions, but 2005 offered Phil Nevin and a bunch of second and third tier players. The teams that sat on their FAAB waiting until that magic moment got a nothing-and-hate-it-sandwich.

Furthermore, the teams that won in 2005 and 2006 did it more through the strength of their auctions and the trades they made than through FAAB. The 2006 winner's big acquistion was Joe Saunders, whose 6.16 ERA and 1.611 WHIP in 49 2/3 innings fortunately didn't make a dent in the winner's first place finishes in ERA/WHIP. His next highest buy was at $7, and most of his FAAB buys were of the $1 and $2 variety.

The 2005 winner made his mark mostly through a great auction and a series of heavy dump trades at the deadline in late July. He had so much FAAB left over that he simply paid between $10-15 for the September call ups he needed. Most of them didn't work out, but when you win by 13 1/2 points, it doesn't really matter, now does it?

So keep these FAAB pointers in mind but don't get too obsessed over it. You'll learn more from watching how your league bids and adjusting your own bids over time.