Supplemental FAAB Log 4/30/07

These are players who in most leagues will be on reserve or farm lists. However, if your league does not allow minor leaguers to be reserved, these players will be of interest to you:

National League

Mike Pelfrey: John Sickels likes Pelfrey. A lot. Enough to give him an A-. That should be good enough for you. However, in the real world, Pelfrey's sporting an ugly 7.90 ERA and clearly doesn't look ready yet. With Orlando Hernandez going on the DL today, the Mets are stuck with Pelfrey for awhile unless they decide to move Aaron Sele into the rotation.

Unlike some doubters, I think Pelfrey is going to be a solid #2 or #3 major league starter in the long term. However, he needs a consolidation season in Triple A. His secondary pitches just aren't there yet.

Bid $8. This bid is a cheat. In most leagues, Pelfrey is active; this bid is for leagues where Pelfrey was released and can be bid on again. He's worth it long term, but you'll take your lumps for now.

Hunter Pence: This is the rare player who is better in Roto than real life. As Baseball America said in its Top 100 Prospect review, Pence won't win any style points. But he's got 25-30+ HR potential in that park and should be able to hang onto the job. The strikeouts are going to be a little high this year, but the walk rate in the minors is acceptable enough that I think Pence will put up somewhere between a .270 and .280 BA. Bid $17.

Felix Pie: If you've been playing Roto for awhile, Pie is one of those guys you probably feel like you've hearing about since 1996. However, he's only 22, so he's still young, young, young.

Players like this are very hard to project, despite what some of the experts might have you believe. A sub-800 OPS in Triple A is unacceptable for someone hoping to make it into the majors. However, when a 21-year old does that, you have to cut him a lot of slack. Long term, I feel like Pie could be anything from Sammy Sosa to Corey Patterson, which still isn't bad. Short term, I can't see going over a bid of $6.

American League

Jorge Cantu: Like Pelfrey, Cantu is a love/hate player; there are owners who sing his praises and others who can't stand him. Put me in the latter category. Yes, Cantu's got 20 HR pop and middle infield eligibility. But he's a fundamentally horrible player: his career high for walks, including the minors, is 26. That's unacceptable, and major league pitchers have made the adjustments to Cantu. His supporters claim it's Cantu's broken foot last year that affected him, but his minor league numbers tell the story: Cantu walked 107 times in 2,378 AB. That's simply not going to cut it in the majors unless you have the bat control and speed of Alfonso Soriano. I'd bid $4 because I could be wrong and Cantu is MI eligible, but you're really wishcasting here.

Shin Soo Choo: If he had a real opportunity, Choo would be a great addition. He's got 15/20 potential, and his OBPs in the minors suggest that he could hit .280-.290 as a full time player. Unfortunately for Choo, he's a lefty, and the Cleveland outfield is littered with lefthanded hitters. Hafner isn't moving to 1B so Garko can sit, so Choo is kind of stuck unless the Indians either deal Nixon (unlikely) or bench him (possible, but not now). You can't bid more than $3 at the moment, though keep an eye on Choo. This is a case where I agree with Ron Shandler of Baseball HQ: it is better to bid on the talent than the role.

Ryan Sweeney: I have a bad feeling about this guy. I definitely feel that Baseball America's #55 rating this year was too high; Rotoworld's #23 ranking (and 13th in the A.L. overall) was just plain nuts in my opinion for a guy who has 23 HR in 1,494 minor league AB. Rotoworld ranked him ahead of Matt Garza and Reid Brignac, amazingly enough. Anyway, the jump from 1 HR in 2005 to 13 in 2006 is certainly encouraging, but then you also have the problem that Sweeney doesn't walk enough. His 35 walks in 449 AB will deteroriate further in the majors, meaning that you're looking at a .230-.240 hitter. With Sweeney's power as-of-yet undeveloped, that's unacceptable.

This is all a moot point anyway; Sweeney will probably mostly sit while Jim Thome nurses his injury, making not worth much more than a bid of $2 or $3. Alex Cintron will probably DH. As an aside, the White Sox blogosphere is up-in-arms about the way Ozzie Guillen's mismanaged the bench and is pissed about the club's decision to jettison Eduardo Perez in spring training. I don't like Brian Anderson much but I can see their point: why keep Anderson in the majors if Ozzie refused to play him even once a week? When it comes to real-life circumstances, this is something definitely worth watching, especially if Josh Fields is eventually called up. If Guillen is scared to play the rookies, guys like Pablo Ozuna, Rob Mackowiak and Cintron will pile up AB when injuries strike, and your next generation of White Sox will stagnate on the bench or get stuck at AAA.