Monday, April 23, 2007

N.L. FAAB Review 4/24/07

Per request, I'm writing this earlier this week. Remember, these are actual FAAB bids based on an N.L. league I used to participate in (moderately to very competitive). This assumes $100 bid limit and minimum bid of $1.

Cody Ross $3. Other bid $1.
With de Aza and Hermida on the shelf, Ross is a decent part time option in real life, though I'm not sure I would have bid more than the minimum in Roto. I haven't played Strat-O-Matic in years, but I would imagine his 2006 card is just nasty against LHP (103 AB, 9 HR, .588 SLG). Bid $1 on Ross if you must. Hermida will be back soon, limiting Ross's already weak value.

Brett Tomko $3. Other bids: $2, $1.
I guess I should be more impressed with Tomko given his fast start this year, but I'm not. I've always loved the Ravine as a venue, but Tomko pitched there last year with mixed results. He's really an IP filler...someone for the 9th slot on your staff for a little while if you're playing match-ups or need to make innings. The fact that three teams bid on him is more telling than what the winning bid was...it tells me that memories are always short in April.

Manny Corpas $1
If you don't play N.L. only 4x4 Roto, there's a good chance you don't know who this guy is. He's a Panamanian middle reliver for the Rockies who has put up solid numbers for the Rox since he was called up to the show in July. He won't supplant Fuentes any time soon, but this is the kind of pick I prefer in 4x4 to someone like Tomko. Corpas has excellent interiors (K/BB, K/IP, HR/IP) and is the kind of quiet pitcher who can earn $5-10 in your pen. A slick pick.

Matt Albers $1
Given Rotoworld's "he's worth watching" comment last Tuesday, I thought more than one team would bid on Albers. John Sickels likes him a lot, giving him a B+ this year and making him the 'Stros #3 prospect. Albers is a risk for this year (he's probably up too soon), but he's worth watching and might very well make an impact this year. Temper your expectations, though: this isn't Tim Lincecum or Yovani Gallardo. My opinion is that Albers needs another 1/2 season in AAA.

Mark Loretta $1
This guy's really fallen, both in Roto and real life. Only 18 AB thus far this year, Loretta's a safe pick at $1, in that he's hit .280 or better every year of his career and will probably wind up putting up 150 AB or so. Still, don't expect much unless Biggio gets hurt.

Mark Hendrickson $1
Another L.A. pitcher like Tomko who is off to a nice start but whose track record really doesn't inspire confidence. I picked him up in the Sportsline expert league because he's due to start at San Diego this week, but Hendrickson isn't a good play if you can't reserve him later. He's fairly hittable, and his numbers in Tampa Bay last year scream fluke.

Adam Eaton $1
Eaton was drafted for $2 in this league and then dropped quickly after his horrible start against Atlanta. His lousy ERA mostly comes from his terrible start against the Braves, he was great against the Mets and solid against the Nationals. Eaton makes me nervous, and not just because the Phillies overpaid obscenely for him. He's a flyball pitcher in a bandbox, and I can see the impending disaster here come July when the thermometer hits 90 in Citizens Bank Park.

Mike Restovich $1
He was just called up by the Nationals, and will pinch hit and get the occassional start against the left hander. I can remember when this guy was a prospect with the Twins. If he somehow hits a 450 foot HR this week, some people will get sucked into the whole "this guy deserves a chance" argument. He's a solid player, but there are tons of guys like this roaming Triple A. Strikeouts are an overrated stat for hitters, but you can't strike out 120-140 times per 500 AB in AAA if you want a chance in the majors. At 28, that chance is probably long gone for Restovich anyway.

4 comments:

T.J. said...

Lohse's available in my league. 1.91 ERA, 23:3 K:BB ratio, but half the Ks came in one start against the Cubs. 3 HR in 28 IP isn't great, and his history isn't very inspiring. He's definitely worth a bid, but how much? I'm thinking about $10. I'm not fully confident in him, but I don't want someone getting him on the cheap.

T.J. said...

Oh, and thanks for posting this on Monday. Very helpful.

mike fenger said...

One trick that might (but might not) work in lots of leagues is to bid one dollar above the "round" numbers. A bid of $6 or $11 will (for a while at least) climb over owners bidding $5 and $10 routinely.
Depending how deep your league is, maybe $6 would be enough to keep someone from getting a cheap keeper, but if you're worried, go to $11. Just be aware you might be using up more of your budget in case someone good comes over.

(Mike, is the NL league you're monitoring a little shallow? Maybe 10 NL teams? Almost all the FAAB guys are owned in my 12-team, 25-man roster (and 15-man reserve list, which is another part o fthe problem) NL-only league).)

FWIW, looks like the guys to be bid on in my league are guys like Hendrickson and Cotts. Ouch.

Mike Gianella said...

mike...i should have probably added that caveat. This is a 12-team N.L. only league that is farm system (six deep) only.