The Modified Sweeney in NL 5x5

Walking into the draft room as the new guy in a long-existing league is an intimidating experience. Not only do you need to learn your players, learn your values, learn drafting habits, but you need to learn people's names, their idiosyncrasies, etc. Now, imagine yourself doing that AND planning on taking the risk of drafting a modified Sweeney (limited HR/RBI with a focus on pitching and speed) team in a 5x5 league. Talk about an upset stomach! Nonetheless, with my stomach flu in tow, I spent last Saturday with my good friend Larry auctioning away.

Our freeze list put us in the low middle of value, and that is why I decided a modified Sweeney strategy might work. Our freezes consisted of:

• C. Jackson $5 S1
• J. Reyes, $15 O
• Chris Duncan $10 S1
• Luke Scott $10 S1
• L. Milledge, $5 S1
• Willy Tavares, $17 S1
• Anthony Reyes $5 S1
• Rich Hill $10 S1

We were pretty light on pitching, though I thought Hill and Reyes, in a strikeout league, were good 3rd and 4th pitchers. We had plenty of speed to freeze with Reyes and Tavares, and the other hitters were okay - Scott was in danger of losing his job, Milledge is a bench player but could be useful for a dump deal, and Connor and Duncan would be solid.

My partner and I identified five immediate problems. One, we did not have a top-line starter. Two, we did not have a closer, under priced or otherwise. Three, we were in the bottom third of value. Four, the top 11 hitters in the league were kept and offense would be at a premium. Five, Reyes was in the last year of his contract, and the bulk of our value for next year would be leaving with him. Therefore, we decided that a modified Sweeney might help put us in contention in a year where we ordinarily would not be able to buy a team that would compete. Draft two closers. Draft one top tier starter. Draft speed, speed, speed, particularly at off positions like 2B, SS and 3B.

Our roster ended up looking like this (by position, not by round, though I will share some of the round by round later in the analysis):

• Bengie Molina $5
• E. Alfonso $3
• Conor Jackson $5
• A. Kennedy $13
• Jose Reyes $15
• T. Graffanino $7
• W. Aybar $1
• R. Furcal $34
• Chris Duncan $10
• Luke Scott $10
• L. Milledge $5
• W. Tavares $17
• N. McLouth $3
• D. Young $4
• A. Reyes $5
• Rich Hill $10
• Peavy $41
• Lowry $11
• D. Wells $4
• L. Cormier $1
• P. Feliciano $2
• Benitez $16
• Wagner $31

So, how did we do? Well, the first problem is: I left $11 on the table. An inexcusable mistake that was the difference between Benitez and Francisco Cordero (I will talk more about timing in a later post). The draft did not +/- the way I anticipated; in fact, only three teams spent all their money - 2 teams left $1, 2 others left under $5, and the rest left at least $10. In the end, the +/- never evened out, so that alleviated some of the problems. Moreover, there were some good bargains on offense that we were shut out of, but not as many as I feared.

The end result, interestingly, was this: we leveled the playing field for the entire league. Coming into the draft, there were two teams that had significant value. By taking the approach we did, we forced up the prices of some speed guys (Freel went for $30, Phillips went for $32, although Pierre only went for $36) and people overspent for the top hitters. 8 teams are now within 8 points of one another in the projected standings and the league is wide-open.

I will give some more analysis of how teams hurt their value in the draft and how strategy can sometimes dictate auction dynamics tomorrow.